1. PROMITHEAS - 4 Paving Green Pathways in 12 countries
Energy and Climate Change
6th International Conference
PROMITHEAS - 4 Paving Green Pathways in 12 countries
Prof. Dimitrios MAVRAKIS
Director
Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA)
As I have mentioned before we consider PROMITHEAS -4 not as a simple project but as a small contribution of the scientific community for the development of green pathways in our region.
In this concept it is important to understand the fundamental drivers of the problem, the international efforts, the regional outlook and the emerging opportunities to participate in the common efforts.

2. Contents Understanding the challenge . . .
Tracing green pathways . . .
What in our region . . .
Conclusions
First, It is necessary to understand what creates the problem
Second, we have to have a quick update of the state of the ongoing efforts to resolve it.
Third, you will be informed about the main characteristics of our region, as they come from the national reports that will be presented in the next session
Finally, based on these characteristics some conclusions will be presented defining needs, gaps and economic opportunities at national and regional level
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

3. Understanding . . . We the humans . . . Needs and consequences
The threat of climate change refers to the survival of human kind and has nothing to do with the planet itself.
The situation resembles to the period when the dinosaurs disappeared. Earth kept moving without them and the same may happen with humans. The only difference is that humans are responsible for their catastrophe.
The tragic irony is that we destroy our future as a result of our efforts to survive and increase the quality of our lives.
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

4. Rates of Growth
It took us million of years to reach the figure of 1 bln, 123 years to double our population, but only 13 years to add ONE more billion and reach the 7 billions.
We already follow an exponential curb that drives to 9.6 billions sometime around 2050.

5. Projected world population (1950 – 2100)
This graph is divided in two parts. The left corresponds to the present state. It is obvious that Asia is the continent where the human explosion occurs. But what is also important is the yellow curvee of Africa.
Coming to the right part we have the model forecasts according to various scenarios.
In a BAU approach it is logical to expect that following the present trends at the end of the century the population may have passed the threshold of the 11 billions.
In our discussion we have to remember both the present situation and the perspectives.
Now the next important issue is to understand where all those new people are live and what is their primary need for survival and well- being.
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

6. Projected growth in primary energy demand 2010-2035
Global energy demand will be driven by China and India accounting for 50% of the growth while the whole Asia is expected to absorb the 2/3 of this growth.
If this is expected to be the situation the next step is to understand the mixture of fuels that will satisfy this expected demand.
Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China and India accounting for 50% of the growth
Source: IEA statistics, 2010

7. World primary energy consumption 1986-2011
Fossil fuel will continue to play a dominant role in world supply and consumption.
Unconventional gas and sand oil has already redrawn global energy projections. Shale gas has already a important share in the US energy mixture and the discussion concerning the sand oils of Canada will have a certain impact in the market of their final destination.
Methane hydrate are expected to enter the market before the end of 2050 and this will also have a serious impact on the worlds energy map.
Indeed there is an ongoing discussion concerning the future of nuclear energy. There is no dough that they will continue to contribute in the energy suppply, at least till the end of the century. So the problem with nuclear stations will not be their decommissioning but the avoidance of catastrophic accidents. New generation reactors and enhanced safety standards can be a rational answer to this type of threats instead of using aging and old generation reactors.
There is also an ongoing discussion about fusion and the relevant ITER program. But it is clear that we can not expect any contribution before the end of this century provided that the ongoing project will conclude with success.
In conclusion coal and hydrocarbons will unavoidably dominate in the energy production until the end of our century and this should be taken seriously when we will discuss about CO2 emissions in the next slide.
Source: BP statistical review of world energy – June 2012

8. Trends in CO2 emissions

9. Beyond the 20 C level 2060* * World Economic Forum
Wheat prices rose by 30% between April – July 2012 because of rises in crude prices, droughts and weather disruptions (World Bank’s Price watch)
Dry summer in Russia , Ukraine and Kazakhstan lead to wheat production losses of more than 6 million tones (10% of yearly production)
Water and Energy supplies will become increasingly interdependent and greater competition for resources could lead to conflict and instability
* World Economic Forum

10. Tracing green pathways . . .
The ultimate challenge
The Kyoto protocol contribution
The UNFCCC framework for various approaches
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

11. The ultimate challenge
A Green Sustainable
and Equitable Economic Development
Capable to:
Reduce GHG emissions – Mitigation
Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change – Adaptation (Agriculture, Energy sector, Water resources, Infrastructure, Tourism, Health sector, Ecosystems)
Secure equitable economic development – Green economy

12. The Kyoto protocol process
1st commitment period 2005 – 2012
Annex 1 and non Annex 1 countries
CDM, JI, ETS
Top to down procedure, limited success
2nd commitment period 2013 – 2020
Part of Annex 1(15% of global emissions)
CCS* under CDM (Durban)
Less parties with binding targets
*CCS : Carbon Capture Storage

13. Kyoto protocol (Present state of world actual commitment)
Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM

14. Copenhagen Accord Assist developing countries in
Adaptation
Mitigation
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+)
$ 100 bl /year up to 2020 (2.34 bn € mobilized by EU in 2011 still pending)

15. A promising perspective
The Framework1 for various approaches under UNFCCC2
With the aim to promote cost effectiveness of mitigation actions:
Parties may individually or jointly develop and implement such approaches in accordance with their national circumstances which may include the following:
Bilateral, domestic, voluntary offset programs
Sub-national, national and regional trading systems
Other market and non market approaches
1/cp 17-Preamble of Section E
UNFCCC :United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

16. Framework for various approaches
NMMs in Charts IGES - JAPAN

17. New Market Mechanisms (NMMs) Components

18. Expected evolution of ETS
Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM

19. What in our region . . . PROMITHEAS – 4 Developing policy mixtures
Mapping the region
Reviewing policies
Trends and consequences
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

20. PROMITHEAS – 4 (General information)
Title: “Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”
Type: EU – FP7 (ENV – Cooperation, Contract No )
Duration: Three (3) years ( )
Budget: One (1) Mil. Euros (Approx.)
Partners: 16 Institutes - 14 countries
Beneficiaries: 12 emerging economies

21. Developing M/A policy mixtures
Review the climate change policies of beneficiaries
Collect and develop databases and scenarios (BAU, PES, OPT)
Run LEAP model
Assess policy mixtures (AMS)
Comment policy mixtures in national conferences
Develop and implement intensive knowledge transfer procedures
Keep informed the governmental authorities
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

22. State of implementation of “Kyoto” in the region
Ratification of Kyoto protocol
Registered CDM projects
Emission trading
Adaptation policy
Albania 3 ─
Armenia 6
Azerbaijan 5
√**
Bulgaria
Annex B country
EU-ETS,JI, GIS √*
Georgia
Greece
EU-ETS
Kazakhstan
National ETS (2014)
Moldova 8
Romania
EU-ETS,JI,GIS
Russia
JI, GIS
Serbia
Turkey -
voluntary carbon market
Ukraine
* Transposition of Directive 2007/60/EC on assessment and management of flood risks, ** Water management & fees (2003, 2011)

23. CO2 emissions (Metric tons eq./capita)
Source: PROMITHEAS – 4 results
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

24. CO2 emission reduction targets until 2020
Note: Target of Bulgaria (8%) refers to 2012.

25. Final energy consumption per capita
Source: PROMITHEAS – 4 results

26. Energy efficiency policies
Appliances
Buildings*
Energy sector
Industry
Albania
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Turkey
Ukraine
With policy instruments
No policy instruments
* Heat conservation, energy and insulation standards, energy management, etc.
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

27. Conclusions
There is a knowledge gap in developing, implementing and assessing M/A policy mixtures
The countries of the region do not participate (…so far)
In the formation of the Global ETS
In the development of regional NMMs
There is a considerable potential in reducing energy intensity (Nationally and Regionally)
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

28. Conclusions (Knowledge needs)
Reliable data bases (Development and maintenance in both national and regional level)
Expertise in
Scenarios development (Assumptions, modifications)
Models and assessment methods
M/A policy mixtures (Implementation, modification)
Social awareness among
Policy and decision makers
Market stakeholders
Simple people
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

29. Conclusions (Paving green pathways )
National Emission Trade Schemes (ETS) can be developed and converge regionally and globally, until 2030
Converging national NMMs, based on M/A policies, can provide economic benefits for the economies of the region
Countries with emerging economies can be benefited from the green fund of the Copenhagen accord
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

30. Conclusions (decreasing energy intensity)
Increase the energy efficiency standards
Encourage the use green technologies and smart networks
Establish tradable certificates for all avoided emissions
Enhance energy supply companies with energy saving services
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

31. Thank you for your attention
KEPA in Athens - Greece
Tel

32. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

33. Global average surface temperature increase
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre