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Head of National Accounts Statistics Netherlands
Dealing with External Challenges in the Compilation of National Accounts: The Dutch Response Peter van de Ven Head of National Accounts Statistics Netherlands
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Major External Developments
Ongoing Budgetary Cutbacks 30% since 1999 Pressure to Decrease Respondent Burden 60% in the period 25% in the period Ongoing Demands Growing Availability of Register Data Legal obligation (2004): no surveys possible if register data is available Free access to administrations Legal possiblities to match data files
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Major External Developments
Globalisation Inconsistencies between statistics Delineation of national economy Growing Mobility of Personnel Transparency and Reproducibility Growing IT-possibilities User Demands Focus on short term statistics Multi-dimensional policy issues Quickly changing needs for information Growing administrative use of NA-data
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Redesign of Economic Statistics
Integrated architecture + chain management: clearly defined ”resting points” in processing of data, from Business Register to NA Production Statistics: Mainly driven by administrative registers (VAT-register and Register on employment and wages) => Note: Observation unit and matching Restricted surveying of additional data: Very limited annual survey (10-20 questions?) Rolling review of input structure (once every 3-5 years?) ProdCom
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Redesign of Economic Statistics
Separate processing of large and/or complex enterprises ( enterprises?) Integrated compilation of Structural Business Statistics (SBS) and Supply and Use Tables (SUT), based on: Before-mentioned data Data on government and financial corporations Data on imports and final uses
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Redesign of NA (General Issues)
NA: clearly defined set of tasks based on ”resting points” Translation to NA-concepts Exhaustiveness Integration of source data Three (more internally oriented) projects: Less Detailed SUT: from 260 * 850 => 150 * 500 Dashboard ”Quarter-machine”
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Redesign of NA (Dashboard)
Software system for prioritising inconsistencies and implausibilities Based on predefined set of norms and standards After solving major inconsistencies: automatic balancing Goal: more top-down, less bottom-up; more efficient processing At the moment: iterative process of implementation
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Redesign of NA (Quarter-machine)
Software system for: Benchmarking quarterly data to annual data Compiling annual estimates, based on quarterly NA-data plus newly available source data Use of Denton Techniques Relevant for the whole core-system of NA: SUT, Institutional Sector Accounts (ISA) and Labour Accounts (LA) Complete change in focus, from annual to quarterly data
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Revision policy: now versus future
Present revision policy: T+45 days: flash quarterly economic growth and employment T+90 days: (revised) quarterly estimates for SUT, ISA and LA T+6 months: 1st provisional (autonomous) annual estimate T+18 months: 2nd provisional (autonomous) annual estimate T+30 months: definite (autonomous) annual estimate
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Revision policy: now versus future
Future revision policy: T+45 days: flash quarterly economic growth and employment T+90 days: (revised) quarterly estimates for SUT, ISA and LA T+6 months: 1st annual estimate based on sum of 4 quarters plus newly available source data T+18 months: 2nd annual estimate based on sum of 4 quarters plus newly available source data T+30 months: definite (autonomous) annual estimate
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Redesign (of NA): main goals
More efficient system Less respondent burden More transparent and reproducible system Better quality, or at least no loss of quality: Consistent recording of large enterprises Full exploitation of register data More top-down, less bottom-up Improved ability to cope with mobility of personnel Note: still a lot of work and problems ahead!
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Some concluding remarks
More international co-operation: Exchange of best practices Development of software tools for NA-compilation ...
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