1. SHEEO Higher Education Policy Conference
Minneapolis, MN
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Thursday, August 10, 2017
#Knocking2016

2. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates
Public and Private High School Graduates
Nation
Four Geographical Regions
50 States and DC
First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico
Public by Race/Ethnicity

3. U.S. High School Graduates
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

4. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)

5. U.S. Private High School Graduates, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
302,168

6. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
Private

7. Converging Populations, 2013-14 to 2031-32
(52%)
(48%)
Only showing race/ethnicity for public school graduates (90% of total graduates)

8. Significant Regional Variation
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

9. Regional Divisions

10. Significant Regional Variation
Total Public and Private High School Graduates, to
1,352,600
SOUTH
862,000
776,820
WEST
MIDWEST
647,036
NORTHEAST

11. Southern Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
229 Hispanic
39 Asian/Pac. Isl.
12 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
268 Black
96 Private Schools
590 White
+137K
+99K
+31K
-5K
-22K
Asian/Pacific Islander
-41K
Private schools
Private schools
-46K

12. Western Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
278 Hispanic
86 Asian/Pac. Isl.
14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
42 Black
54 Private Schools
356 White
+65K
+3K
+2K
-4K
-8K
-14K
-37K
-39K

13. Midwestern Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
56 Hispanic
23 Asian/Pac. Isl.
4 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
88 Black
64 Private Schools
527 White
+39K
+22K
+12K
Thousands
-9K
-17K
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
-75K
-82K

14. Northeastern Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
76 Hispanic
37 Asian/Pac. Isl.
2 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
76 Black
84 Private Schools
365 White
+45K
+35K
+17K
Thousands
-10K
Hispanic
Hispanic
-25K
Black
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black
Private schools
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
-60K
-94K

15. State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013- 2025
Nation: 4.7%
See Knocking pages for Top 10 States & state annual change.

16. State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013-2030
Nation:
-4.0%
See Knocking pages for Top 10 States & state annual change.

17. Implications Nathan Evans Lauren Victor
Chief of Staff and Senior Advisor, Academic and Student Affairs California State University Office of the Chancellor
Lauren Victor
Research and Policy Analyst
Colorado Department of Higher Education

18.
Report
State Profiles
Download Data

19. Top 10 States with a Majority of U.S. High School Graduates
In 2013
From 2013 to 2025
From 2025 to 2032 CA
456,000
-25,000
-5%
-37,000
-9% TX
314,000
61,000
19%
-6,000
-2% NY
212,000
2,000 1%
-14,000
-7% FL
176,000
17,000
10%
-16,000
-8% IL
153,000
-10,000
-18,000
-13% PA
146,000
-4%
-8,000
-6% OH
135,000
-12%
-9,000 MI
111,000
-10% NJ
109,000
-12,000 NC
101,000
9,000 9%
See pp , and Appendix A Data Tables of Knocking full report

20. www.wiche.edu/knocking #knocking2016 Want to Learn More?
Demarée Michelau
Vice President,
Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE
Peace Bransberger
Senior Research Analyst , Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE
Sarah Leibrandt
Research Analyst, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE
#knocking2016

21. College Enrollment of Traditional Age Students
Black & Hispanic Rates Up 10% by 2014 from 1995, but Lag Whites by 5%
Asian
65.4
62.5
52.9
Black
51.6
Hispanic
NCES Digest of Education Statistics Percent of year olds who completed HS in a given year enrolled in college by October of that year.

22. College Enrollment of Traditional Age Students
Even Greater Variation by Income
Upper 20%
Middle 60%
62.5
Lower 20%
NCES Digest of Education Statistics Percent of year olds who completed HS in a given year enrolled in college by October of that year.

23. College Enrollment Projections to 2024
Total (Thousands)
By Age Group (Thousands)
NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

24. College Enrollment Projections to 2024
2010
to 2015
to 2019
2019
to 2024
All students
-4% 7%
18 to 24 3% 4% 6%
25 or older
-14%
12% 9%
NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

25. Increasingly Likely 1st Generation Students
Children Age 5-17 by Parents’ Highest Level Educational Attainment, U.S., 2015
NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics From ACS data. Children grouped by child’s race/ethnicity.

26. Increasingly from Lesser Means
Income Distribution of Households With Children, U.S.,
Each bar segment is 20%, up to 95%
Medians
 All Households
 HHs with children
American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates

27. United States High School Graduates by Race and Ethnicity, Compared to SY 2012-13 (Thousands)
640 Hispanic
184 Asian/Pac. Isl.
32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
474 Black
298 Private Schools
1,839 White
+151
White
+58 -9
Hispanic
-34
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
-252