1. Weather Technology in the Cockpit
Brandon Lundeen
Shawn Pruchnicki MS ATP CFII
Seth Young PhD CFI

2. What is weather technology? How does WTIC effect GA?
Center for Aviation Studies
What is weather technology?
How does WTIC effect GA?
What are the costs of using WTIC?
How does the industry adapt?

3. Emergence of new technology Analysis of pilot decision making
Center for Aviation Studies
Emergence of new technology
Differences in use and training
Analysis of pilot decision making
Correcting for edge cases
Future work

4. Updated weather technology varies in price
Center for Aviation Studies
Feinberg and Tauss (2002):
Updated weather technology varies in price
$2,000 to $50,000
Costs continue after installation
$10-$1,300 per month, plus connection fees

5. Weather technology can increase situational awareness (Ahlstrom 2012)
Center for Aviation Studies
Other work:
Weather technology can increase situational awareness (Ahlstrom 2012)
Not all changes are positive (Williams 2012)
Training not keeping up (Lanicci 2012)

6. Non-monetary costs of use (Talotta 1997):
Center for Aviation Studies
Non-monetary costs of use (Talotta 1997):
Use of screens can be disorienting
“Head down time”, especially in rapidly deteriorating situations
Timeliness of data

7. Difficult to train effectively Minimizes benefits, maximizes risks
Center for Aviation Studies
Lack of standards .
Difficult to train effectively
Minimizes benefits, maximizes risks
Substantial ‘head down’ time

8. WTIC is becoming more standard Price now in $100’s
Center for Aviation Studies
What about in 2016? .
WTIC is becoming more standard
Price now in $100’s
Crowd sourced apps nearly free

9. Weather data from cable/news sources Updates from ATC
Center for Aviation Studies
How it used to be:
Weather data from cable/news sources
Not specialized, prior to departure
Updates from ATC
Visual cues of surroundings

10. Strike Finder Nexar Bendix King
Center for Aviation Studies
Strike Finder Nexar Bendix King

11. Center for Aviation Studies
ASOS [b] PDA [c]

12. Center for Aviation Studies

13. Databases kept separate to keep integrity
Center for Aviation Studies
Scope of study
NTSB reports 2003 to 2008
Very objective, pilots unlikely to speculate
ASRS reports 2003 to 2013
Self reported
Databases kept separate to keep integrity

14. Center for Aviation Studies

15. First study to use accident/incident reports to see usage over time
Center for Aviation Studies
First study to use accident/incident reports to see usage over time
No predetermined fields or standards for reporting
Used pilot narratives

16. 1,000s of reports to mine through
Center for Aviation Studies
1,000s of reports to mine through
Computers need data points to find trends
Large databases provide statistical significance

17. Categories: Rapid Weather Carb Ice Fog VFR to IMC Plane Ice Multiple
Center for Aviation Studies
Categories:
Rapid Weather Carb Ice Fog
VFR to IMC Plane Ice Multiple
Underqualified Windshear
Unprepared Mountain Landing

18. Recurring themes (and trip type/pilot)
Center for Aviation Studies
Recurring themes (and trip type/pilot) .
Decision Making
VFR cross-country – experienced pilot
Convective weather avoidance
IFR cross-country
Using weather sources not intended for aviation
VFR local – student pilot
Risk taking
VFR cross-country – inexperienced pilot

19. Recurring themes (continued)
Center for Aviation Studies
Recurring themes (continued) .
Wind Conditions
VFR cross-country – pilot in new aircraft
Icing Conditions
IFR cross-country – unplanned flight into icing conditions
Turbulence Encounter
VFR cross-country – clear air turbulence
Distraction using cockpit technology
VFR local flight

20. Recurring themes (continued)
Center for Aviation Studies
Recurring themes (continued)
[e] [f] .

21. Identification of common scenarios has potential to allow:
Center for Aviation Studies
Identification of common scenarios has potential to allow:
Training to target specific pilots
Training scenarios for certification levels

22. Data from real-time weather technology on board
Center for Aviation Studies
How it can be now:
Updates from ATC
Data from real-time weather technology on board
Visual cues of surroundings

23. Data from real-time weather technology on board
Center for Aviation Studies
How it can be now:
Updates from ATC
Data from real-time weather technology on board
Visual cues of surroundings

24. Consistent results between studies Head down scans
Center for Aviation Studies
Consistent results between studies
Head down scans
Conditions change quickly
View in screen different size
Poor training exacerbates

25. Lowering of Personal Minimums
Center for Aviation Studies
2 alarming scenarios
Lowering of Personal Minimums
Technology Inappropriate for Use in Aviation

26. Center for Aviation Studies
[g]

27. Under utilized full report
Center for Aviation Studies
Under utilized full report
Reports have more information to be analyzed
Different databases/formats
Common database allows for more detailed analysis

28. Database logical next step Excel is proprietary format
Center for Aviation Studies
Database logical next step
Excel is proprietary format
NTSB/ASRS haven’t integrated weather technology into report
Allows collaboration

29. Center for Aviation Studies
Raw reports  categorized events  clean up narratives  update from original database  import into SQL  create PHP frontend  allow exportation of data

30. Center for Aviation Studies

31. Center for Aviation Studies

32. Center for Aviation Studies

33. Center for Aviation Studies

34. Partial dataset loaded in Combines NTSB/ASRS Common query combinations
Center for Aviation Studies
Alpha testing
Partial dataset loaded in
Combines NTSB/ASRS
Common query combinations
Allows advanced searches

35. 5 years of records, about 1,000 reports Shared fields Custom fields
Center for Aviation Studies
5 years of records, about 1,000 reports
Shared fields
Date
Aircraft
Phase of flight
Pilot Experience
Narrative
Location
Lighting
Custom fields
Weather
Technology Present
Agency
Intersection of all fields

36. Complexity of searches [d]
Center for Aviation Studies
Complexity of searches [d]

37. 2004-2006 Either database Cessna 172 Everyone but students Any WTIC
Center for Aviation Studies .
Either database
Cessna 172
Everyone but students
Any WTIC
No combined ice/wind
(2004 OR 2005 OR 2006)
.AND --
(Cessna 172)
AND
(NOT student)
(NOT none)
NOT (ice AND wind)

38. Next steps Load all data (2008-2013) Increase security
Center for Aviation Studies
Next steps
Load all data ( )
Increase security
SQL injections
User types and classes
Correcting classifications

39. Move to production environment Java support Open to other researchers
Center for Aviation Studies
Next steps (cont.)
Move to production environment
2 GHz, 512 MB, 100 kB/s
Java support
Visual representation, narrative searching
Open to other researchers
Focus on what you need to, not what you have to

40. Onboard weather technology generally increases safety in GA
Center for Aviation Studies
Conclusions
Onboard weather technology generally increases safety in GA
Report available technology
Improved training

41. Only saw when things went wrong
Center for Aviation Studies
Only saw when things went wrong

42. Study found trends leading to incidents
Center for Aviation Studies
Study found trends leading to incidents
Study unfairly biased toward negative
More work on positive aspects
Self reporting when technology worked

43. References [a] http://www.keithjbrown.co.uk/vworks/php/php_p1.php
Center for Aviation Studies
References
[a]
[b]
[c]
[d]
[e]
[f]
[g]