1. How Can Africa Spread Energy to Low Income Areas?
Professor David Walwyn
IAMOT 2017

2. Rooftop Solar … everyone is talking about it! Why?
Where will all the talk take us?
What could rooftop solar mean for low income areas?

3. Energy Revolution
Despite Trump, the world is in the beginnings of an energy revolution
The importance of this transformation for the theme “sustainable energy supply for Africa” is profound

4. Overview of Presentation
Techno-Economic Analysis
used to analyse
mutuality
supports
supports
Sustainability Transitions
Rooftop Solar in Low Income Areas
South Africa
Social Wage
supports

5. References
Walwyn, D. R Local Government Resists the Implementation of Renewable Technologies. In: Hostettler, S., Gadgil, A. & Hazboun, E. (Eds.) Sustainable Access to Energy in the Global South: Essential Technologies and Implementation Approaches. Lausanne: Springer, Ch 13, pp
Walwyn, D. R The Use of the Technological Innovation Systems Framework to Identify the Critical Factors for a Successful Sustainability Transition to Rooftop Solar in Low-Income Communities within South Africa. In: Zobaa, D. A. (Ed.) Sustainable Energy - Technological Issues, Applications and Case Studies. Rjeka: InTech, Ch 3, pp

6. Have You Seen The Headlines?
All Dutch trains now run on 100% wind power
'Spectacular' drop in renewable energy costs leads to record global capacity boost
India will sell only electric cars within the next 13 years
Pittsburgh plans to power itself with 100% renewable energy
World’s biggest floating solar power plant switches on in Huainan
UK achieves solar power record as temperatures soar
JinkoSolar smashes solar module shipment record (>2 GW in one $0.4/W)

7. Sources of Energy
Source: IEA Statistics ,2015

8. Sankey Diagram (South Africa; TWh/annum)
Oil and Oil Products
340
Natural Gas 45
Nuclear 42
Renewables (Biomass/PV/Wind)
184
Power Plants
786
Non-Energy 50
Transport
208
Electricity
194
Heating
202
Coal
1,185
Liquification
197

9. South Africa’s Carbon Footprint (million MT/annum)

10. Meeting COP21 in South Africa; decarbonising energy, transport & industry
Biogas 20
Solar PV
300
Nuclear 42
Biomass
100
Hydrogen to Fuels
200
Electrolysis
Fuel Cell 50
Non-Energy
Transport
208
Electricity
Heating
Wind

11. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Win a CD: what vehicle is this and what is the fuel consumption?

12. Costs of Photovoltaic (PV) Modules

13. Module Costs II

14. Installed Costs (Utility Scale RSA)

15. Installed Costs (Rooftop Solar)

16. Installed Costs (Systems) II

17. Cost Breakdown

18. Employment

19. The Social Context High unemployment Rising social wage
Low economic growth
1994
2014
2015
% Change
Strict
Employed
8,896
15,055
15,830
69%
Unemployed
2,489
5,067
5,400
104%
Unemployment Rate
21.9%
25.2%
15.2%
Expanded
4,707
8,157
73%
Labour Force
13,603
23,212
71%
34.6%
35.1%
1.6%

20. Government Revenue Now Flat

21. Costs of the Social Wage

22. Average Household Social Wage
Assume one grant recipient per low-income household
Social wage = R8,000 per year per household

23. Is There an Alternative
Deliver the social wage in a manner which is not just a grant?

24. Profile of Energy Consumers
R360/household/year

25. The Techno-Economic Model - Inputs
Factor
Units
Value
Capacity Utilisation
% of kWp
25%
Inverter Efficiency
% of input power
95%
Panel Output
kWp
0.25
Roof Area m2 23
Installed System Cost
R/kWp
27,307
Selling Price (to Municipality)
R/kWh
1.40

26. Results Number of Panels 12 Rating kWp 3.0 Panel Output kWh/year 6,242
kWh/month
520
Capital Cost R
81,922
Fully Absorbed Single Year Cost
R/kWh
2.04
Annualized Cost
R/year
12,730
Net Present Value
2015 R
-20,000

27. Bring in the Social Wage and the Subsidy
Assume one grant recipient per low-income household
Social wage = R8,000 per year
Subsidy = R360 per year
Annualized Cost PV = R12,740 per year
Value of electricity = R8,740 per household year
Net additional cost = R4,000 per household year
But
33 jobs per 1,000 households created (R100,000 per job)!
Carbon emissions reduced
Improved affordability of electricity
PV costs continuously falling

28. Compelling Argument
Replacing a system of social grants with a subsidised means of individual households becoming energy prosumers (consumers and producers) will have benefits at a number of levels
Firstly it will improve access to and the affordability of, electricity, which is recognised as a fundamental means of accessing other public goods
Secondly it will create local economic and employment growth at a competitive value
Thirdly it will decrease levels of poverty in low income communities without resorting to the use of a social grant
Finally it will simultaneously address the need for the transition of South Africa’s energy sector from non-renewable to renewable resources, as has already been promised with COP21

29. Niche Experimentation
Crucial demand side interventions which need to be driven by government:
Install rooftop PV in pilot locations
Validate the assumptions in terms of employment, income, ownership, security, etc.
Grid integration testing
Although integration of relatively low levels of renewables has not yet presented major concerns, this will not be the case at higher levels of penetration (Chudy et al., 2015), and the issue has already received widespread attention, becoming a subject of global research (Morales et al., 2013)

30. Conclusions Rooftop solar can be used to uplift low income areas
Distributed power generation is not just a fashion; it is essential to address issues of inclusion, employment, economic growth, environmental sustainability, poverty and upliftment

31. Answers to the Question?

32. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
What vehicle is this? Riverside Rasa
What is the fuel consumption? 250 mpg (a conventional ICE is 35 mpg)