1. Chapter 18
Incarceration Trends

2. Incarceration Trends Explaining Prison Population Trends
Increased Arrests and More Likely Incarceration
Tougher Sentencing
Prison Construction
The War on Drugs
State Politics
Public Policy Trends
Dealing with Overcrowded Prisons
The Null Strategy
The Construction Strategy
Intermediate Sanctions
Prison Population Reduction
The impact of Prison
Does Incarceration Pay?

3. PRISON POPULATION TRENDS

4. why the growth in incarceration rate?
demographic change
changes in the proportion of people in “crime prone” ( ) & “incarceration prone” ( ) age groups
increased arrest rates & more incarceration (including for probation/parole violations)
tougher sentencing practices
less probation, longer sentences, fewer paroles
prison construction
war on drugs
public policy trends: “getting tough”

5. Incarceration Rates and Violent Crime Rates in Selected Contiguous States

6. strategies to address prison crowding crisis
null strategy
strategies
prison population reduction
construction strategy
intermediate sanctions

7. “null strategy”
the strategy of doing nothing to relieve crowding in prisons on the assumption that the problem is temporary and will disappear in time

8. prison population reduction
states rarely control prison population
9 states with sentencing guidelines have required guideline framers to consider prison capacity when stipulating sentences
e.g., Minnesota has had 2d lowest incarceration rate in U.S. from
Texas county “shipping” formula, 1990
“back door” strategies more typical:
parole, work release, good time

9. “construction strategy”
a strategy of building new facilities to meet the demand for prison space
cost of average prison cell (in 500 bed facility):
$75,000 base construction cost (= $31 million)
$22,000 architects’ fees, furnishings, site prep.
$82,000 actual cost per cell
$41,000,000 to build 500 bed facility
operating cost:
$19,000 per inmate per year ($9.5 mill)
30-year bill for 500 bed facility:
$326 million
NOT the $30 million originally claimed.

10. impact of prison crowding
ill health
results of crowding
post-release recidivism
offender misconduct
violent behavior

11. does incarceration pay?
Debate over cost-effectiveness of prison. marginal savings of locking up each offender?
Zedlewski: $430,000 vs. cost of $25,000
DiIulio: $28,000 vs. cost of $14,000
Marvell: would save 21 crimes/year per offender

12. hidden costs of incarceration
offenders’ families & children
loss of young men to communities
post-release recidivism
hidden costs
opportunity costs of not having other social programs