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Closing the maize yield gap in Ethiopia: National analysis
Michiel van Dijk and Tom Morley Imagine meeting 27 April, 2017 Contributions: Assefa Admassie, Katrien Descheemaeker, Martin van Ittersum, Roel Jongeneel, Marloes van Loon, Pytrik Reidsma, Joao Nunes Vieira da Silva, Kindie Tesfaye
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Main findings Technology gap (57%) makes up the largest component of the yield gap. Economic constraints (30%) make up the second largest component of the yield gap It is not profitable for farmers to use more fertilizer given current yield response and input and output prices. Using improved seeds substantially increases yield. Technical efficiency makes up 10% of the total yield gap. Extension services have a positive (but small) effect on technical efficiency.
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Policy messages Expanding extension services to all farms will increase maize yield. Improved farm management practices are required to close the technical efficiency yield gap. Profitability analysis suggest that input and output prices are such that farmers do not have an incentive to expand production beyond the current level. Stimulating the use of improved seeds has the potential to increase maize yield (but there might be economic constraints). Closing the (technology) yield gap requires the diffusion of transformative technologies, policies and practices (e.g. precision farming). Examples of new technologies: better pest and disease management, precision farming, new (drought) resistant cultivars.
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Objectives Integrate economic and agronomic approaches to assess yield gaps Use the approach to analyse the constraints to maize yield growth in Ethiopia at the national level Provide policy recommendations
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Conceptual framework
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Five different yield levels to benchmark farmer performance
Yield (tons/ha) Biophysical maximum production level (climate, CO2, water) w.l. potential yield Yield gap Best-practice + no economic constraints on inputs (on farm demonstrations) Feasible yield Economic yield Best-practice + profit-maximizing Technical efficient yield Best-practice Actual yield Observed yield at the plot
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Policies to close the yield gap(s)
Yield (tons/ha) Main causes Policies Potential yield Yield gap Technology Yield gap Agricultural innovation system and broader institutional, technological, economic and social factors Diffusion of transformative technologies, policies and practices Feasible yield Economic Yield gap Transaction and transportation costs. Investment in rural roads Domestic production of fertilizer Economic yield Allocative Yield gap Knowledge and financial constraints, risk issues and information asymmetries Credit & insurance Expand agro-dealer networks Support market information Land tenure systems Smart input subsidies Technical efficient yield Technology yield: diffusion of technologies that are not yet in use in the country, such as precision farming. Closing the yield gap is a long-term process. Technical efficiency yield gap Suboptimal crop management caused by knowledge, skills and information gaps. Improve extension services Stimulate knowledge transfer from best practice to average farmers Actual yield
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Yield gap measurement and estimation
Household survey, Climate and soil information Stochastic frontier analysis Global Yield Gap Atlas Literature study Best practice Yield response function Actual yield Technical efficient yield Economic yield Feasible yield Water-limited Potential yield Summary of data. Left hand side: water limited yield from GYGA and actual yield from LSMS-ISA. Major part and innovation of the project is to link detailed plot, farm and spatial data that reflect economic and agronomic drivers to arrive at new insights. Key sources of information GYGA: standardised approach to assess yield gap: spatial information on potential yield. LSMS-ISA: new WB household surveys with very detailed data at plot, household and community level for multiple years and seven African countries (ETH, NGA, MWI, TZA, Niger, Mali, Burkina). Yield gap decomposition
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Data: Household survey (LSMS-ISA)
Summary of data. Left hand side: water limited yield from GYGA and actual yield from LSMS-ISA. Major part and innovation of the project is to link detailed plot, farm and spatial data that reflect economic and agronomic drivers to arrive at new insights. Key sources of information GYGA: standardised approach to assess yield gap: spatial information on potential yield. LSMS-ISA: new WB household surveys with very detailed data at plot, household and community level for multiple years and seven African countries (ETH, NGA, MWI, TZA, Niger, Mali, Burkina). Source: World Bank
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Data: Global Yield Gap Atlas
Summary of data. Left hand side: water limited yield from GYGA and actual yield from LSMS-ISA. Major part and innovation of the project is to link detailed plot, farm and spatial data that reflect economic and agronomic drivers to arrive at new insights. Key sources of information GYGA: standardised approach to assess yield gap: spatial information on potential yield. LSMS-ISA: new WB household surveys with very detailed data at plot, household and community level for multiple years and seven African countries (ETH, NGA, MWI, TZA, Niger, Mali, Burkina). Source:
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w.l. Potential yield (kg/ha)
Actual yield (Ya), water-limited yield (Yw) and other statistics by zone ZONE Yield (kg/ha) w.l. Potential yield (kg/ha) Fertilizer (%) Nitrogen (kg/ha) Area (ha) Improved seeds (%) Extension (%) Number AMHARA 1,727 11,607 47 91.9 0.13 34 52 587 HARARI 850 6,361 59 51.2 14 43 162 OROMIYA 1,730 13,042 31 69.6 0.17 21 30 705 SNNP 1,860 12,362 35 64.7 0.18 27 26 574 SOMALI 1,031 10,571 2 7.8 0.32 90 TIGRAY 1,381 10,556 38 56.3 0.1 3 54 216 OTHER 1,827 12,709 4 13.2 0.23 5 318 TOTAL 1,685 11,888 71.3 0.16 2,562
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Technical efficient yield (Yte): Extension services matter
Plots with extension services have on average ~10 pp higher technical efficiency
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Economic yield: Not profitable for farmers to use more nitrogen
Yield response (YR) to nitrogen use ~8.4 kg maize/kg N Value cost ratio (VCR)< 1. But excludes 65% of farmers with N =0! Highly depends on relative price information! ZONE YR VCR Fertilizer (%) Nitrogen (kg/ha) AMHARA 6.2 0.61 47 91.9 HARARI 5.6 0.55 59 51.2 OROMIYA 10.0 0.99 31 69.6 SNNP 11.8 1.17 35 64.7 TIGRAY 6.3 0.63 38 56.3 TOTAL 8.4 0.83 39 72.2 World Bank (2010) YR: kg maize/kg N Minten et al. (2013) YR: kg maize/kg N
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Feasible yield (Yf): what if inputs would be for free?
Assumptions 50% more seeds 50% more labour 400 kg N/ha All farmers use animal traction All farmers use improved seeds All farmers use manure
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Comparison of yield levels by zone
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Decomposition of the yield gap
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By how much can national maize production in Ethiopia be increased when yield gaps are closed?
All yield gaps closed economic optimal application of fertilizer National maize production in 2013 (FAOSTAT) All policies combined Extension services for all plots Application of improved seeds Maize production 2013 ETH: 6.67 million tons (FAOSTAT) Extension services: 0.15 million tons additional Fertilizer: ~ 1 million tons additional Improved seed: ~ 1.1 million tons additional All policies: ~ 2.8 million tons additional (50 % of 2013 production).
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Main findings Technology gap (57%) makes up the largest component of the yield gap. Economic constraints (30%) make up the second largest component of the yield gap It is not profitable for farmers to use more fertilizer given current yield response and input and output prices. Using improved seeds substantially increases yield. Technical efficiency makes up 10% of the total yield gap. Extension services have a positive (but small) effect on technical efficiency.
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Policy messages Expanding extension services to all farms will increase maize yield. Improved farm management practices are required to close the technical efficiency yield gap. Profitability analysis suggest that input and output prices are such that farmers do not have an incentive to expand production beyond the current level. Stimulating the use of improved seeds has the potential to increase maize yield (but there might be economic constraints). Closing the (technology) yield gap requires the diffusion of transformative technologies, policies and practices (e.g. precision farming). Examples of new technologies: better pest and disease management, precision farming, new (drought) resistant cultivars.
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Thank you Questions?
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Methodology to operationalise framework
Take actual maize yield from LSMS-ISA Estimate frontier/technically efficient yield Using stochastic frontier analysis Compute profit maximizing fertilizer (nitrogen) use Short run profit maximization under the assumption that capital and labour are fixed and fertilizer is variable National level maize and fertilizer prices Take yield potential from GYGA
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Methodology Take actual maize yield from household survey
Use yield response function for best-practice farms/plots to estimate technical efficiency yield Use regional maize and fertilizer prices to calculate economic yield Estimate feasible yield using assumptions on input use Take potential water-limited yield from GYGA Calculate yield gaps
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Yield levels Potential (water-limited) yield: Biophysical maximum production level determined by CO2 emissions, solar radiation and climate (but constrained by water resources). Feasible yield: Maximum yield that can be achieved on a plot with available technology and best-practice management assuming no economic constraints. Economic yield: yield level at which profits are maximized. Technical efficient yield: measures best-practice performance at each input level. Actual yield: Observed yield at the plot level.
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