1. Climate Change: The Great Debate
ENVH 111
October 6, 2010

2. Overview The never-ending debate Trends in climate change
Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)
Senator James Inhofe
Trends in climate change
Global
Pacific Northwest
The role of public health
Assess health impacts of climate change
Develop mitigation and adaptation strategies

3. NRDC climate change

4. Inhofe video

5. Global Trends in Climate Change

6. Climate Change Projections
Svante Arrhenius, 1906
“Any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the Earth’s surface by 4 °C.”
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide -- President’s Science Advisory Committee, 1965
“Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
… the best estimate of climate sensitivity to a CO2 doubling is a warming of 3°C, with a likely range of 2 to 4.5°C.

7. Long term Trend in CO2

8. Global average temperature
Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute │ 8

9. 9

10. Muir Glacier, Alaska Aug 1941 & 2004
On the left is a photograph of Muir Glacier taken on August 13, 1941, by glaciologist William O. Field;
on the right, a photograph taken from the same vantage on August 31, 2004, by geologist Bruce F. Molnia
of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). According to Molnia, between 1941 and 2004 the glacier
retreated more than twelve kilometers (seven miles) and thinned by more than 800 meters (875 yards).
Ocean water has filled the valley, replacing the ice of Muir Glacier; the end of the glacier has retreated
out of the field of view. The glacier’s absence reveals scars where glacier ice once scraped high up against
the hillside. In 2004, trees and shrubs grow thickly in the foreground, where in 1941 there was only bare rock.

11. Boulder Glacier on Mount Baker the North Cascades
This picture shows Boulder Glacier on Mount Baker in the North Cascades of Washington State in August Visible in the photo is a terminal moraine (outlined in blue) that marks the maximum extent of the glacier circa 1985 following its 743 meter advance during the 1950s-1970s. Between 1987 and 2005 this glacier has retreated 450 meters due to a period of lower snowfall and higher summer temperatures [1].
Before this, Boulder Glacier retreated 2560 meters between 1850 and 1950 following a maximum achieved during
the Little Ice Age (Pelto and Hedlund 2004).

12. Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level
Average rate of sea level rise:
1961 – 2003: 1.8 mm /yr
1993 – 2003: 3.1 mm /yr
Source: Martin Manning, Director, IPCC Working Group

13. Human Health Consequences of Climate Change NIH Report, April 2010
Asthma, respiratory allergies, and airway diseases
Cancer
Cardiovascular disease and stroke
Foodborne diseases and nutrition
Heat-related morbidity and mortality
Human developmental effects
Mental health and stress-related disorders
Neurological diseases and disorders
Vectorborne and zoonotic diseases
Waterborne diseases
Weather-related morbidity and mortality

14. Mark Newman, University of Michigan (www.worldmapper.org)
Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Emissions by Country (Density-Equalizing Cartogram)
Mark Newman, University of Michigan (

15. Climate-Related Mortality
Jonathan Patz, University of Wisconsin

16. Climate Change and Human Health NIH Report, April 2010
Mitigation of climate change
Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Enhancement of sinks that trap or remove carbon from the atmosphere
Adaptation to climate change
Actions taken to lessen the impact on health and the environment
Some adaptation strategies will directly improve public health through changes in infrastructure

17. Regional Trends in Climate Change
University of Washington

20. WA State Study: Methods
Establish historical relationship between heat events and mortality
25 year database: ; May-September
Humidex: combined effects of temperature and humidity
Heat events: event threshold definition
Hottest 1% of all days (99th percentile humidex)
Number of heat events and duration of each event
Excess deaths in 2025, 2045, 2085
Customize estimates for key study areas
King County, Spokane County, Clark County
Also estimate future mortality due to heat

21. Historical Analysis Relative risk of death during heat event
Mean Daily Mortality Rate(heat event)
Mean Daily Mortality Rate(non-event)

22. King County Relative Risk of Death, Heat Day vs Day < 36°C Humidex,
Cause of Death
Age Group
0-4
5-14
15-44
45-64
65-84
85+
All non-traumatic
0.92
(0.65, 1.31)
1.61
(0.71, 3.67)
1.01
(0.83, 1.23)
1.08
(0.97, 1.2)
1.07
(1.01, 1.13)*
1.24
(1.15, 1.33)*
Respiratory
(0, Inf) †
0.73
(0.23, 2.32)
1.18
(0.8, 1.75)
1.15
(0.97, 1.36)
1.14
(0.91, 1.42)
Circulatory
1.97
(0.49, 7.96)
1.3
(0.89, 1.9)
0.94
(0.76, 1.15)
(0.99, 1.19)
1.26
(1.14, 1.4)*
Cardio-vascular
1.16
(0.16, 8.2)
(0.84, 1.99)
0.95
(0.76, 1.19)
1.03
(0.92, 1.15)
(1.1, 1.4)*
Ischemic
1.38
(0.67, 2.81)
0.91
(0.69, 1.2)
(0.9, 1.17)
(0.91, 1.27)
All non-traumatic deaths includes all the other categories.
Each row is analyzed separately
15-44 age group, Cardiovascular:
Average mortality on a non-heat day = and average mortality on a heat day =
Although the result shows that years old people have significant higher relative risk on heat days, the conclusion is drawn from 92 deaths on non-heat days and 6 deaths on heat days, which might be not reliable.
65-84 age group, Cardiovascular:
Average mortality on a non-heat day = and average mortality on a heat day =
The significant conclusion is based on 2450 deaths on non-heat days and 78 deaths on heat days, which is reliable.
----- Meeting Notes (7/26/11 15:51) -----
All anon-traumatic deaths includes all of the other subcategories.
each row is analyzed separately
Change order to reflect the categories, rather than aalphabetic order
respiratory
circulatory
cardiovascular
ischemic
(°F)
delete other
† Unstable estimate due to small mortality rate in this category
* statistically significant results at p<0.05 22

23. Time Series Analysis All non-traumatic deaths
~1.8%per ºC

24. Spatial Distribution of Risk
Relative risk of all non-traumatic deaths associated with heat days from in King County

25. °F ºC
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by IPCC, 2001

26. Future projections

27. So What are our Choices?