1. Greg Kats and Keith Glassbrook, Capital E
SMART SURFACES DC
Actively managing District sun and rain to improve health and comfort and slow global warming while saving several billion dollars
Greg Kats and Keith Glassbrook, Capital E
FUNDING PROVIDED BY:

2. National Partners
District Partners

3. Acknowledgements Special Thanks
Tommy Wells, Jeff Seltzer, Brian VanWye, Bill Updike, and Jay Wilson of the Department of Energy & Environment
Mark Chambers of the Department of General Services
Sam Brooks of ClearRock (formerly of DGS)
Neal Fann of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Alex Kats-Rubin of Abt Associates
Paul Lanning of Lightbox Energy (formerly of Bluefin LLC)
Kurt Shickman of Global Cool Cities Alliance
Robert Ivy and John Schneidawind of AIA
Harriet Tregoning of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Extra special thanks are due to Ariana Vaisey and Grace Buie, our wonderful interns and 2016, respectively

4. Advisors who provided guidance and feedback throughout the development of this report. Our Advisors include:
Sean Cahill (Senior VP of Development, Property Group Partners; Immediate Past President, DC Building Industry Association),
Dr. John Davies-Cole (State Epidemiologist, Center for Policy, Planning & Evaluation, DC Department of Health);
Dr. Lynn Goldman (Dean, Milken Institute School of Public Health (GWU); Epidemiologist; former EPA Assistant Administrator);
Dr. Ronnen Levinson (Deputy Leader, Heat Island Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory);
Dr. Art Rosenfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; former Commissioner at the California Energy Commission; co-founder of the American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy (ACEEE));
Kurt Shickman (Executive Director of Global Cool Cities Alliance);
Dan Tangherlini (former Administrator of GSA; former City Administrator of Washington, DC).

5. Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions
Results
Conclusions
Appendix

6. Smart Roofs – Department of General Services (Phase 1)
Washington, DC has ambitious energy, greening, and health objectives, embodied in Sustainable DC Plan
The District’s Department of General Services (DGS) is greening its portfolio of 28 million SF, including 11 million SF of roofs (of which 9 million SF are low slope)
DGS hired Capital E in 2013 to undertake a cost-benefit analysis for the District’s Smart Roof Program
Present value over 40 years for each roof technology on all DGS low slope roofs
COMPARISON
Cool Roofs
Green Roofs
Conventional w/ PV (PPA)
COSTS
$5,580,000
$203,000,000 $0
BENEFITS
$52,100,000
$538,000,000
$294,000,000
Energy
$17,100,000
$21,000,000
$34,500,000
Stormwater
N/A
$482,000,000
Health
$32,900,000
$31,600,000
$205,000,000
Climate change
$2,110,000
$3,310,000
$54,700,000
TOTAL NPV
$46,500,000
$335,000,000
Roof technology
Internal Rate of Return
Simple Payback Period (years)
Cool roof
91% 2
Green roof
11% 11
PV (PPA)
N/A

7. Smart Surfaces – DGS and Department of Energy & Environment (Phase 2)
Builds on Smart Roof project for DGS
Goal: estimate the costs and benefits of city-wide deployment of smart surface solutions
Smart Surfaces:
Cool roofs
Cool roofs with bioretention or rainwater harvesting
Green roofs
Solar PV
Reflective pavements
Permeable pavements
Urban trees

8. Opportunity and Need
Residents of Washington, DC (the District) already suffer through hotter and more humid summers due to climate change
The District is projected to experience substantial increases in the number of days above 90°F, 95°F, and 100°F
The number of days above 100°F is expected to increase four- to nine-fold
Higher temperatures will threaten summer tourism and will increase smog formation and cooling energy use, further threatening District livability in the summer
Image Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), “Adapting to Climate Change: Federal Agencies in the Washington, DC Metro Area,” 2012.

9. THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (Updated Spring 2016) Global Warming/ climate change is accelerating, not slowing

10. Opportunity and Need (cont.)
DOEE predicts that:
Extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency and intensity
Sea level rise will continue and even accelerate
The size and frequency of “design” storms, which engineers and designers use to appropriately size stormwater infrastructure, will increase
Image Source: Perkins + Will and Kleinfelder, Climate Projections & Scenario Development: Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the District of Columbia, 2016

11. Opportunity and Need (cont.)
These temperature increases will put a severe strain on the city’s infrastructure
Including increasing cooling energy use, reducing comfort, and increasing risk of heat-related deaths
Changes in precipitation and sea level rise will put an enormous burden on the city’s stormwater infrastructure
Increasingly difficult for infrastructure to handle stormwater runoff and sewage overflow  continued river contamination and further water infrastructure investment
Demonstrates the need to prioritize urban cooling and stormwater managing measures in policy making and planning

12. Smart Surface Solutions Can Help A Lot… if costs and benefits understood
Cool Roofs
Green Roofs
Solar PV
Rainwater Harvesting
Bioretention
Urban Trees
Permeable Pavements
Reflective Pavements
Image Sources: Heat Island Group, “Cool Roofs,” Berkeley Lab, accessed October 12, 2015; U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), “Green Roofs,” U.S. General Services Administration, July 28, 2015; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), “PVWatts Calculator,” NREL, accessed October 12, 2015; Christine E. Boyle, “The Slow March Forward of Utilities Embracing Rainwater Harvesting as an Alternative Water Supply,” Environmental Finance Blog, September 20, 2012; Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE), “Stormwater BMP Specifications,” Training Documents Stormwater Management Rule and Guidebook, October 2013; Casey Trees, “Street Tree Information,” Casey Trees, accessed October 12, 2015; David Roberts, “Lightfinder Northwest,” accessed June 3, 2016; Heat Island Group, “Cool Pavements,” Berkeley Lab, accessed December 23, 2015

13. Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions
Results
Conclusions
Appendix

14. Cool Roof Benefits Valued
Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings
Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures
Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced heat-related mortality
Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures
Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change

15. Cool Roof + Bioretention Benefits Valued
Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings
Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures
Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced heat-related mortality
Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures
Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change
Reduced stormwater runoff
Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management
Increased employment
Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

16. Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting Benefits Valued
Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings
Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures
Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced heat-related mortality
Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures
Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change
Reduced stormwater runoff
Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management
Reduced potable water use
Water collected in rainwater harvesting system used for irrigation or non-potable indoor applications  reduced potable water expenditures
Increased employment
Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

17. Green Roof Benefits Valued
Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings
Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures
Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduce mortality  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced heat-related mortality
Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures
Global cooling and reduced GHG emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change
Reduced stormwater runoff
Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management
Increased employment
Increased labor intensity compared to conventional roofs  Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

18. Solar PV Electricity generation Financial incentives
Offsets electricity purchases from the grid with electricity generated onsite  lower electricity expenditures
Financial incentives
Tax credits, depreciation, and solar renewable energy credits
Reduced PM2.5 pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and deaths  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced GHG emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change
Increased employment
Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

19. Reflective Pavements
Indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings
Reduced building energy use  lower energy costs
Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced heat-related mortality
Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures
Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change

20. Permeable Pavements Reduced stormwater runoff
Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management
Reduced pavement salt use
Reduced use of pavement salt needed to prevent ice build-up  reduced deicing expenditures

21. Urban Trees
Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings
Reduced building energy use  lower energy costs
Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution
Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduce mortality  lower healthcare expenditures
Reduced heat-related mortality
Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures
Global cooling and reduced GHG emissions
Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change
Reduced stormwater runoff
Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management

22. Climate Change Mitigation Pathways
Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results
↑ Roof albedo
↓ GHG emissions
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
(2) ↓ Energy use
↓ Climate change
(3) ↑ Global cooling
↑ PV panels
↓ GHG emissions
(1) ↓ Grid electricity use
↓ Climate change
↑ Rooftop vegetation
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
(2) ↓ Energy use
↓ GHG emissions
↓ Climate change
(4) ↑ Carbon sequestration
(3) ↑ Global cooling

23. Climate Change Mitigation Pathways (cont.)
Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results
↑ Pavement albedo
↓ GHG emissions
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
↓ Energy use
↓ Climate change
(2) ↑ Global cooling
↑ Bioretention
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
↓ Energy use
↓ GHG emissions
↓ Climate change
(2) ↑ Carbon sequestration

24. Ozone Reduction Pathways
Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results
↑ Roof albedo
↓ Ozone precursor emissions
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
(2) ↓ Energy use
↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction)
↑ PV panels
↓ Ozone precursor emissions
(1) ↓ Grid electricity use
↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction)
↑ Rooftop vegetation
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
(2) ↓ Energy use
↓ Ozone precursor emissions
↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction)
↓ Ozone conc.
(4) Directly remove ozone
(3) Directly remove NO2

25. Ozone Reduction Pathways (cont.)
Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results
↑ Pavement albedo
↓ Ozone precursor emissions
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
↓ Energy use
↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction)
↑ Bioretention
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
↓ Energy use
↓ Ozone precursor emissions
↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction)
↓ Ozone conc.
(3) Directly remove ozone
(2) Directly remove NO2
↑ Urban trees
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
(2) ↓ Energy use
↓ Ozone precursor emissions
↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction)
↓ Ozone conc.
(4) Directly remove ozone
(3) Directly remove NO2

26. PM2.5 Reduction Pathways
Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results
↑ Roof albedo
↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
(2) ↓ Energy use
↓ PM2.5 pollution
↑ PV panels
↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions
(1) ↓ Grid electricity use
↓ PM2.5 pollution
↑ Rooftop vegetation
(2) ↓ Ambient temperature
(3) ↓ Energy use
(1) Direct removal PM2.5
(4) Direct removal PM2.5 precursors
↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions
↓ PM2.5 pollution

27. PM2.5 Reduction Pathways (cont.)
Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results
↑ Pavement albedo
↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions
(1) ↓ Ambient temperature
↓ Energy use
↓ PM2.5 pollution
↑ Bioretention
(2) ↓ Ambient temperature
↓ Energy use
(1) Direct removal PM2.5
(3) Direct removal PM2.5 precursors
↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions
↓ PM2.5 pollution
↑ Urban trees
(2) ↓ Ambient temperature
(3) ↓ Energy use
(1) Direct removal PM2.5
(4) Direct removal PM2.5 precursors
↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions
↓ PM2.5 pollution

28. Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions
Results
Conclusions
Appendix

29. Key Analysis-wide Assumptions
Analysis term: 40 years
Analysis year 1: 2017
Discount rate: 3% (real)
Dollar year: 2015 (adjusted using the historical consumer price index for all national urban consumers)

30. Key Solution-Specific Assumptions
Cool Roofs
Green Roofs
Albedo: 0.65 (low slope) and (steep slope)
Shifting to 0.75 (low slope) and (steep slope) post-2025
Life: 20 years
Growing media depth: 4.5 inches
Leaf area index: 2
Life: 40 years
Installed on low slope roofs only

31. Key Solution-Specific Assumptions (cont.)
Solar PV
Bioretention
PV purchase breakdown: 25% direct purchase vs. 75% PPA
PPA term/system life: 20 years
PPA price: 5% below utility electricity price
Annual degradation: 0.5%
PV Efficiency: 18%
Life: 25 years
Life: 40 years
Rainwater Harvesting

32. Key Solution-Specific Assumptions (cont.)
Reflective Pavements
Permeable Pavements
Albedo: 0.30 (road), (parking lot), 0.35 (sidewalk)
Shifting to 0.35 (road), (parking lot), 0.45 (sidewalk)
Life
Road: 6-10 years
Parking lot: 15 years
Sidewalk: 40 years
Life:
Parking lot: years (depending on technology)
Sidewalk: 40 years
Life: 30 years
Urban Trees

33. Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions
Results
Conclusions
Appendix

34. Surface Coverage By End of 40-yr Analysis
Surface solution
Percent coverage by end of 40-year analysis
Cool roofs
50% of roofs (10% multifamily low slope cool roofs and 20% of commercial low slope cool roofs have bioretention; 5% multifamily low slope cool roofs and 10% of commercial low slope cool roofs have rainwater harvesting)
Green roofs
10% of roofs
Solar PV
50% of viable (=530 MW)
Reflective pavements
50% of pavements
Permeable pavements
5% parking lots and 10% sidewalks (4% of pavements)
Urban trees
Increase tree canopy by 10% absolute

35. Present Value of City-wide Scenario Costs and Benefits (through 2056)
SOLUTION
Cool Roofs
Cool Roofs + Bioretention
Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting
Green Roofs
PV (Direct Purchase)
PV (PPA)
Reflective Pavements
Permeable Pavements
Urban Trees
TOTAL
COSTS
$32,318,000
$23,351,000
$16,752,000
$282,957,000
$242,487,000
$499,000
$43,802,000
$13,538,000
$234,846,000
$890,546,000
First cost
$23,827,000
$18,169,000
$10,312,000
$194,607,000
$163,019,000 --
$23,537,000
$13,936,000
$136,475,000
$583,879,000
Operations and maintenance $0
$2,289,000
$6,026,000
$88,214,000
$25,112,000
$7,263,000
$77,622,000
$206,523,000
Additional replacements
$8,491,000
$2,425,000
$140,000
$54,192,000
$20,265,000
-$7,661,000
$20,750,000
$98,600,000
Employment training
$469,000
$276,000
$138,000
$167,000
$1,546,000
BENEFITS
$236,960,000
$80,048,000
$65,751,000
$563,636,000
$443,693,000
$450,611,000
$112,377,000
$192,130,000
$797,038,000
$2,942,239,000
Energy
$30,658,000
$5,674,000
$2,802,000
$22,103,000
$238,953,000
$33,202,000
$5,014,000
$8,352,000
$346,754,000
Financial incentives
$65,604,000
Stormwater
$32,415,000
$41,482,000
$478,786,000
$191,437,000
$694,775,000
$1,438,893,000
Health
$114,544,000
$14,282,000
$6,669,000
$38,978,000
$65,824,000
$197,472,000
$29,734,000
$56,631,000
$524,131,000
Climate change
$91,758,000
$23,349,000
$11,573,000
$11,159,000
$50,341,000
$151,022,000
$77,630,000
$37,282,000
$454,110,000
Reduced portable water use
$15,868,000
Reduced salt use
$693,000
Employment
$4,330,000
$3,227,000
$12,611,000
$22,973,000
$68,917,000
$112,056,000
NPV
$204,642,000
$56,697,000
$49,000,000
$280,679,000
$201,206,000
$450,113,000
$68,575,000
$178,592,000
$562,193,000
$2,051,693,000

36. Other Metrics (through 2056): Benefit-to-Cost Ratio, Employment, Energy and GHG Emissions
SOLUTION
Cool Roofs
Cool Roofs + Bioretention
Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting
Green Roofs
PV (Direct Purchase)
PV (PPA)
Reflective Pavements
Permeable Pavements
Urban Trees
Benefit-to-Cost Ratio
7.33
3.43
3.93
1.99
1.83
Very high
2.57
14.19
3.39
SOLUTION
Cool Roofs
Cool Roofs + Bioretention
Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting
Green Roofs
PV (Direct Purchase)
PV (PPA)
Reflective Pavements
Permeable Pavements
Urban Trees
TOTAL
Job-years created -- 86 64
250
501
1,503
4,831
Job-years creater per $1,000,000 spent
3.7
3.8
0.9
2.1
N/A
5.4
SOLUTION
Cool Roofs
Cool Roofs + Bioretention
Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting
Green Roofs
PV (Direct Purchase)
PV (PPA)
Reflective Pavements
Permeable Pavements
Urban Trees
TOTAL
ENERGY IMPACT
Electricity saved or generated (GWh)
1,027
260
128
398
4,154
12,463
210
324
18,964
Natural gas saved (MDth)
-3,451
-380
-188
394
-228
-710
-4,564
GHG EMISSIONS IMPACT (KT CO2) -5 25 12 92
747
2,241 22
107
3,241
Direct energy-related impact (KT CO2)
-42 20 10 79 21 88
Indirect energy-related impact (KT CO2) 37 5 2 13 86
165
Energy generation-related impact (KT CO2)
2,988

37. Summertime Tourism
Combination of higher average heat, greater frequency of extreme heat, and more air pollution will make the District less attractive for tourists in the summer
Smart surface solutions can help avoid potential tourism losses
Net present value of this avoided loss over the 40-year analysis period would be $3.1 billion in visitor spending and $335 million in District tax revenue.
Image Source:

38. Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions
Results
Conclusions
Appendix

39. Conclusions
Broad deployment of smart surfaces solutions would cost-effectively reduce health and energy costs city-wide while increasing employment, resilience, and livability
NPV of city-wide adoption of these solutions is $2.05 billion
The payback times for these solutions vary a great deal
Cool roofs offer very fast payback, while several other solutions offer the largest net benefit
We expect additional non-quantified benefits to the District and its residents are large and outweigh non-quantified costs

40. Conclusions (cont.)
Downwind cooling in the District is likely to be large, including cooling impact in eastern and northeastern parts of the city
Summer winds in the District often blow from the south or southwest  urban cooling in Arlington and Alexandria could lead to significant cooling in the District
District-wide smart surface deployment could prevent an approximately $3.1 billion reduction in tourism spending in the District over 40 years, including $335 million in District tax revenue
Combined NPV of over $5 billion
Downwind cooling and tourism show that smart surfaces could have an even larger benefit in the District than estimated in the report  need for coordinated adoption of smart surfaces in the broader region.

41. Sustainable DC Plan Goals
Sustainable DC Plan action category
Smart surface solutions impacts
Jobs & Economy
Create 2,403 well-paying direct green jobs to District residents over 40 years
Provide an entry point into the emerging green workforce
Health & Wellness
Improve air quality and public health (18% of benefits are from health), creating a healthier environment for District residents and visitors
Equity & Diversity
Improve livability, particularly in low income areas that tend have less green cover and have less efficient buildings
Climate & Environment
By full implementation, emissions reductions equivalent to 5.5% of 2013 emissions, assuming constant emissions through the 40-year analysis
Enhance resilience to climate change by reducing city temperature through UHI mitigation
Built Environment
Improve sustainability performance of new and existing buildings;
Create higher quality of life through improved design
Energy
When fully implemented, reduce electricity purchases from the grid by 8.5% and slightly increase natural gas purchases by 0.9% relative to 2013 consumption
Counter the rise in energy consumption due to rising temperatures from climate change
Nature
Expand tree canopy and other green landscapes to create a District-wide ecosystem
Water
Reduce stormwater runoff to protect local water bodies;
Reduce potable water use