1. BSR Risk Management Capability Assessment Methodology
FROM GAPS TO CAPS
Dr. Björn Karlsson
Associate Professor, University of Iceland
Director General, Iceland Construction Authority

2. Content of presentation
Background
Risk Assessment versus Capability Assessment
Earlier project: EUSBSR 14.3, six scenarios defined
Work carried out in Task C
Aim of Task C
Documentation of Task C
Risk Management Capability Methodology, BSR
Main conclusions, Task C

3. Risk assessment and capability assessment

4. National Risk Assessment (NRA)
All EU countries must hand in NRA
A comparative review of disaster risks in
society (example: Norway)
All-hazards approach
Based on best available knowledge and
expert`s judgements
Transparent process, public document

5. Norwegian National Risk Assessment Matrix
Influenza Pandemic
Extreme Weather (Storm)
Offshore
Accident
Terrorist Attack
Nuclear Accident
TransportAccident
Industrial Accident
Accident at Sea
Limited Military Assault
Cyber Attack
Space Weather
Forest Fire
Rock Slide
Inland Flooding
Volcano Eruption
Energy Shortage
Consequence
Likelihood
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6. Earlier Project, EUSBSR 14.3 Six Scenarios, Baltic Sea Region
The following 6 scenarios were defined and described in detail in earlier project:
Extreme weather/storm
Flooding
Forest fire
Pandemic flu
Accident at Sea
Nuclear accident
These scenarios can all have cross-border dimensions of risks.

7. Content of presentation
Background
Risk Assessment versus Capability Assessment
Earlier project: EUSBSR 14.3, six scenarios defined
Work carried out in Task C
Aim of Task C
Documentation of Task C
Risk Management Capability Methodology, BSR
Main conclusions, Task C

8. Aim of Task C
Develop a first approach methodology for risk management capability assessment for BSR
To be introduced in the Baltic Sea Region and further developed in near future
This will contribute to the ongoing process of method development for risk management capability assessment at EU level.
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9. Task C report: Table of Contents
Introduction
Existing capability assessment approaches in the EU/BSR
Results from a questionnaire on civil protection management systems in the BSR
Discussion on the EU guidelines on risk management capability
A methodology for risk and capability assessment
Conclusions, recommendations and lessons learned
Appendix A: The BSR methodology for risk and capability assessments, a first approach
Appendix B: Possible future opportunities for risk and capability assessments in the BSR
Appendix C: Answers to questionnaire 1 from participants
Appendix D: Evaluation of EU Guideline questions

11. Capability Assessment Method for BSR
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12. Element 1: Planning
1.1 Arrange start-up meeting
1.2 Identify need for information gathering
1.3 Examine need for consulting support
Examine need for external participation
1.4
1.5 Plan for reporting
Planning is essential - especially since external participation is crucial
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13. Element 2: The general event
2.1 Define the general event
2.2 Identify factors that can lead to the event ocurring
2.3 Discuss the likelihood of the general event
2.4 Identify overall ability to prevent and respond to the general event
There are issues that are relevant only to the ”general event”.
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14. Element 3: Develop a scenario
3.1
Determine "worst credible scenario"
3.2
Determine the start and end time
3.3
Choose variables and variable values
3.4
Summarize the scenario narrative
After describing the general event develop a scenario.
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15. Element 4: Influence on vital societal functions
4.2
Identify how the maintenance of essential services is affected
4.1
Identify how vital societal functions become involved in responding to the scenario
Element 4 is the basis for analyzing consequences and capability
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16. Vital societal functions

17. Element 5: Assess consequences
5.1
Assess the consequences for society's protection values
5.2
Conduct a sensitivity analysis
5.3
Conduct an uncertainty analysis
How will protection values be affected?
1.Human life and health
2.Society´s functionality
3.Economy and the environment
4.Democracy, rule of law and human rights
5.National sovereignty
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18. Element 6: Assess vulnerabilities and lack of capability
6.1 Assess whether the goals can be reached and the protection values and functions can be maintained
6.2 Assess capability to prevent
6.3 Assess vulnerabilities
6.4
Assess capability to respond
6.5 Assess which vulnerabilities need to be reduced and which capabilities need to be developed
Time to wrap up! Everything done so far was aimed at forming the basis for this element!
FROM GAPS TO CAPS

19. FROM GAPS TO CAPS

20. Capability Assessment Method for BSR
FROM GAPS TO CAPS

21. Content of presentation
Background
Risk Assessment versus Capability Assessment
Earlier project: EUSBSR 14.3, six scenarios defined
Work carried out in Task C
Aim of Task C
Documentation of Task C
Risk Management Capability Methodology, BSR
Main conclusions, 1-6

22. Main conclusions 1-2
The existing capability assessment approaches in the EU/BSR (5 Nordic countries, 3 Baltic countries, Poland, Germany, UK and the Netherlands) have been investigated, discussed and reported on within the current project, resulting in a number of lessons learned by the project partners.
A number of questionnaires were formulated and answered by the project partners where issues on capability assessments were further investigated. The results are documented in Appendix C (the state of risk and capability assessments in the BSR) and Appendix D (Evaluation of the EU guidelines). In this light, cross-border issues could be discussed and opportunities for improvements investigated and documented (see Chapters 3 and 4).

23. Main conclusions 3-4
Through several Seminars and Workshops the project group found that the Swedish approach to risk and capability assessments was most suitable for adoption and further development as a harmonized methodology for the Baltic Sea Region.
Based on this, a methodology for scenario analysis, risk and capability assessment was documented and described (see Chapter 5 and Appendix A). The method was tested, using the Extreme weather/storm scenario from the 14.3 project in a series of Workshops held at a project meeting in Hamburg in June All project partners agree that this method should be introduced and developed further within the BSR.

24. Main conclusion 5-6
Work was carried out on possible future developments, opportunities and challenges for risk and capability assessments in the BSR (Appendix B).
The results presented will provide a solid base for future work aimed at harmonizing risk- and capability assessment work within the BSR. A major achievement is the acceptance and promotion of a new proposed methodology for risk and capability assessments in the BSR, which is fully in line with the objective of “strengthening capacity to respond and to recover from major emergencies and accidents: better risk assessment and crisis management“ in Policy Area Secure in the EUSBSR. All project partners agree that this methodology should be introduced within the partner countries and should serve as a basis for further development work in the field.

25. THANK YOU!
FROM GAPS TO CAPS