1. QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMET
CENTER FOR COMPUTATIONAL EPIDEMIOLOGY BIOINFORMATICS AND
RISK ASSESSMENT
TUSKEGEE UNIVERSITY

2. Contents What is Risk Analysis? Concept of Regionalization
11 Risk Factors
Conclusion

3. What is Risk Analysis ?
A detailed analysis or examination, performed to understand the nature of unwanted, negative consequences or hazards to human life, health, property, or the environment.
Risk Analysis Association

4. Risk Analysis Components
Assessment
Risk
Management
Risk
Communication
Qualitative
Quantitative

5. Risk Assessment
Qualitative risk assessment: The magnitude of the consequences is expressed in qualitative terms.
Quantitative risk assessment: Sets parameters and calculates the outputs of the risk assessment numerically.

6. The Concept of Regionalization
An individual country, countries, regions or zones within a country can be considered, for purposes of trade.
It has enhanced world trade.
Minimizes a lot of trade barriers, which are
political in nature most of the time.

7. 1- Epidemiological methods for data collection and analysis:
Epidemiological Problem-Oriented Approach (EPOA).
2- Qualitative Risk Assessment Methodology:
The guidelines for qualitative risk assessment required by the USDA/APHIS

8. The Epidemiological Problem Oriented Approach
Problem Identification (Descriptive) Triad
HOST
ENVIRONMENT
AGENT
THERAPEUTICS
Health
maintenance
& promotion
PREVENTION CONTROL
Management Triad
Diagnostic
Procedure Linkage

9. Six essential factors for the transmission of an infectious agent
Source/reservoir
Mode of escape from source
Mode of transmission
Mode of entry into host
Susceptible host

10. Qualitative Risk Assessment Guidelines
According to USDA guidelines there are 11 risk factors to be considered for qualitative risk assessments. This is stated in the Regionalization Final Rule (62CFR , Docket No Importation of Animals and Animal Products)

11. Risk Factor 1. The authority, organization, and infrastructure of the veterinary services in the region

12. The type and extent of the disease surveillance in the region
Risk Factor 2.
The type and extent of the disease surveillance in the region
Passive surveillance
Targeted active surveillance and monitoring

13. Diagnostic laboratory capabilities
Risk Factor 3.
Diagnostic laboratory capabilities
provincial and federal laboratories
reference laboratory for the histopathological diagnosis

14. Risk Factor 4.
Disease status: if the disease exists in the region, at what prevalence?

15. Risk Factor 5.
The extent of an active disease control program (emergency response)

16. Risk Factor 6.
The vaccination status of the region;
When was the last vaccination?
What is the extent of vaccination if it is currently used,
What vaccine is being used?

17. Risk Factor 7.
Disease status of the adjacent regions

18. Risk Factor 8.
The degree to which the region is separated from the other higher risk regions

19. The extent of control over the movement of animals and animal products
Risk Factor 9.
The extent of control over the movement of animals and animal products
Quarantine at points of entry.
Inspection offices at the borders, in the field and at slaughter houses.
Each animal must have accompanying documents showing it’s origin and health status. (Traceback)

20. Risk Factor 10.
Livestock demographics and marketing practices in the region

21. Risk Factor 11.
Policies and infrastructures for animal disease control in the region

22. Based on all of the 11 risk factors the region under consideration can be characterized to pause a negligible, very low, low, medium or high risk in qualitative terms.

23. HOWEVER, The final decision to permit imports from a region will not be based solely on the characterization or status of the region but rather on a quantitative risk assessment addressing the risks of the specific commodity proposed for export from the region.