1. REU 2007-Real Time Path Prediction
Narin Persad, Mentor: Sean Barbeau
Introduction
Results
Due to temporary technical complications with ESRI’s GIS software at the time of testing , synthetic trips were used to test the algorithm. Various simulations using the synthetic trips were performed to anticipate what might happen in real-time situations.
Situation 1
Situation 2
Advances in GPS navigation technology has given motorists exceptional control over their route and travel information.  These devices, however, require effort on behalf of the user to input their destination and they have little or no benefit beyond the confines of an automobile. Additionally, the high cost of these devices is often too much of an expense for the average consumer.
The motivation of this research is to give a commuter an affordable and practical alternative to expensive GPS navigation devices.
The objective of this research is to develop an algorithm that uses a commuter’s travel patterns to automatically determine their destination. Messages concerning route hazards and alternate routes can then be sent via a GPS-enabled cell phone.
The first two coordinates of the polyline did not lie within the buffer. The algorithm deleted the first two coordinates until the polyline was enclosed within a buffer.
Fig 1.
polylines
Fig 2. A polygon layer as stored in ESRI’s ArcSde GIS database
Algorithm Flowchart
An offset coordinate is created from the last coordinate and buffered.
The algorithm found a trip buffer.
Methodology
Conclusion
In order to record travel patterns, GPS-enabled cell phones were distributed among volunteers
These cell-phones transmit coordinates, duration
and time of travel as well as other information
A SQL database stores and organizes this information by user and trip ID.
Use ESRI’s ArcObjects Java API to build a polyline, connected line segments, from the coordinates in the SQL database.
Buffer the polyline to create a polygon that has
area and store this shape in ArcSde, a GIS server.
Catalogue the user’s path history in ArcSde and any accident points
Despite the technical complications and lack of real-time testing,
the algorithm behaved exactly as expected with the synthetic trips.
The results of the simulations show promise for future real-time use.
Future Work
To further improve the algorithm , plans to integrate other trip properties are being developed. Specifically, to narrow the destination possibilities, time of departure and arrival is being incorporated into the algorithm to account for the traveler’s schedule.
References
ESRI documentation and support:
Kyriakakos, M.   Hadjiefthymiades, S.   Frangiadakis, N.   Merakos, L.   Dept. of Informatics & Telecommun., Athens Univ., Greece, Multi-user driven path prediction algorithm for mobile computing
Department of Computer Science & Engineering