1. Donato Kiniger Passigli
Crisis risk management
Anticipating Change, Counteracting Fragility
Donato Kiniger Passigli
Trento, 6 April 2017  

2. Crisis Risk Management – Strategies and Opportunities
Risk Reduction (Prevention/Mitigation/Preparedness( incl. EW)
Risk Transfer
Residual Risk (Response and Recovery)
Stagnant Hum./Dev. Funding
Invest in capacities – Strengthening governance – Strengthened resilience
People-centered approach
Community level – Local sources of resilience

3. Conceptual linkages – a forward looking script
Prevention – to avoid consequences of hazards
Preventing hazards
Preventing exposure (reducing vulnerability)
Resilience – capacity to withstand crisis impact
Absorb, react, rebounce of individuals and communities
Preparedness – making early plans and preparing response
Integral component of crisis management
Strategies to strengthen resilience

4. Conceptual linkages – a forward looking script
Prevention – to avoid consequences of hazards
Preventing hazards
Preventing exposure (reducing vulnerability)
Resilience – capacity to withstand crisis impact
Absorb, react, rebounce of individuals and communities
Preparedness – making early plans and preparing response
Integral component of crisis management
Strategies to strengthen resilience

5. Global threats and challenges
World in a turmoil – overwhelming human
consequences, high toll of disasters/conflicts
Complexities, risks and vulnerabilities
New threats :
Climate change (environmental degradation), erosion of trust in governance + multilateralism + social + cultural disruption (polarisation, populism), rapid urbanization (fragile settings), rising migration + displacement, technological advances (genetical engineering & artificial intelligence), future of work
» Interconnected reality

6. Fragility factors

7. Humanitarian/development/peace nexus
Shared responsibility (beyond state level)
Tasks :
Preventing and resolving conflicts and crisis
Building resilience and sustainable peace
One single agenda – peace building and recovery
Long term processes – mix of responses, no-linear
The confluence of global challenges such as climate change, financial crises, poverty and rising inequality transcend traditional understanding of what is “humanitarian”. “Humanitarian action today means to think in the short, medium and longer term”
DKP : ILO-IFRC Partnership Incubator Workshop, Geneva 24 November 2015

8. Anticipatory moves in hum./Dev. Realm
Risk and resilience – 2 sides of the same coin
Main policies:
Integrate resilience in disaster risk reduction
Improve coherence between development and humanitarian responses in fragile and conflict-affected situations
Basic humanitarian principles to be observed

9. Move/shift to prevention
Objective: fragile societies to become more resilient and self-sustainable
From reaction to anticipation
Questions:
What to prevent ? (conflicts/violence/disasters)
How to do prevention?
How to generate a cultural prevention

10. Common goal of sustainable peace and sustainable development
Reduce the scale and costs of humanitarian interventions
Consider peace promotion and development go hand-in-hand, invest in both
Promote a culture of prevention (cultural paradigm shift: better education, inter-communal dialogue)
Make development interventions risk informed (simulations? and not risk insensitive)
Integrate preparedness and national/local capacity development mechanisms
Better preparedness (associated with decent work, income opportunities and strengthen governance)
Sensitivity to local context
Greater integration, coherence, multi-layered, multi-level prevention
» The 2030 Agenda for sustainable development cannot be achieved without peace and security

11. Proposed Recommendation
Employment and decent work
for peace and resilience:
Revision of the Employment (Transition from War to Peace) Recommendation, 1944 (No.71)
Preamble
I. Objectives and scope
II. Guiding principles
Strategic approaches
IV. Employment generation
V. Rights, equality and non-discrimination
VI. Education, vocational training and guidance
VII. Social protection
VIII. Labour law, labour administration and labour market information
XI. Social dialogue and role of employers’ and workers’ organizations
Refugees and returnees
XI. Prevention, mitigation and preparedness
International cooperation
Other provisions
Annex

13. Egypt Weak Democratic Governance External / Internal Armed Groups
Currency fluctuations
Ineffective labour market regulation
Dependence on remittances from diaspora
Sudden loss of productive assets
Reduction of social protection and safety nets
Current account deficits
Elite capture and corruption
Reduction of trade opportunities
Security threats for businesses and workers
Lack of freedom of association
Limited social dialogue opportunities
Infrastructure damages
Unenforced labour standards
Socio-Political Crisis
Disruption of value chains
High levels of un- and under employment
Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills
Erosion of social capital
Destruction of enterprises and workplaces
Depletion of private and public capital stock
Land grabbing
Socio-Economic Inequalities and Marginalization
Household debt
Forced labour
(Wage) discrimination
Child Labour
Egypt
External / Internal Armed Groups
Catastrophic Events
Health Epidemic
Global Trade / Financial Crisis
Loss of investor and consumer confidence
Closure o business
Poverty
Loss of skilled labour
Exploitation of workers
Half to long term development strategies
Weak foreign investment
Lost productivity and worker absenteeism
Unreliable labour market data
Migratory Flows / Population Movements
- Sudden influx of skilled labour

14. Lebanon External / Internal Armed Groups Catastrophic Events
Health Epidemic
Global Trade / Financial Crisis
Loss of investor and confidence
Current account deficits
Dependence on remittances from diaspora
Weak Foreign investment
Constrained access to markets
Sudden loss of productive assets
Reduction of trade opportunities
Weak Democratic Governance
Unenforced labour standards
Ineffective labour market regulation
Unreliable labour market data
Elite capture and corruption
Socio-Political Crisis
Loss of skilled labour
Limited social dialogue opportunities
Half to long-term development strategies
Socio-Economic Inequalities and Marginalization
Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills
High levels of un- and under employment
Child labour
Poverty
Erosion of social capital
(Wage) discrimination
Closure of business
Migratory Flows / Population Movements
Sudden inflow of unskilled labour
Household debt
Infrastructure damages

15. Yemen External / Internal Armed Groups Catastrophic Events
Halt to long-term development strategies
Land grabbing
Destruction of enterprises and workplaces
Security threats for businesses and workers
Catastrophic Events
Constrained access to markets
Infrastructure damages
Erosion of social capital
Sudden loss of productive assets
Depletion of private and public capital stock
Health Epidemic
Reduction of social protection and safety nets
Global Trade / Financial Crisis
Reduced aggregate demand
Closure of businesses
Higher operating costs
Disruption of value chains
Weak foreign investment
Dependence on remittances from diaspora
Current account deficits
Reduction of trade opportunities
Weak Democratic Governance
Ineffective labour market regulation
Unenforced labour standards
Unreliable labour market data
Limited social dialogue opportunities
Lack of freedom of association
Loss of investor and consumer confidence
Socio-Political Crisis
Household debt
Elite capture and corruption
Poverty
Child labour
High level of un- and under employment
Socio-Economic Inequalities and Marginalization
(Wage) discrimination
Forced displacement of workers
Forced labour
Exploitation of workers
Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills
Migratory Flows / Population Movements
Sudden influx of unskilled labour
Lost productivity and worker absenteeism
Loss of skilled labour