1. Create Well-paying Jobs, Save Lives, Injuries and Family Disruptions,
Opportunity to
Create Well-paying Jobs,
Save Lives, Injuries and Family Disruptions,
and Make Money
by Establishing a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of Automated Vehicles (aka SmartDrivingCars) by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (P Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
Princeton University
Presented at
Inaugural Automated Vehicle Fort Monmouth
October 3, 2014

2. Quality of Life 101: Important Elements
Environment
Clean air, water, …
Employment
“High Quality” Jobs
Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety
Mobility
Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …
Main Premise:
Facilitating the Adoption of Smart Driving Technology:
Creates “High Quality” Jobs, Improves Personal Safety
Improves Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …
Improves the Environment
All for FREE!

3. NOT: Future Vehicle Technologies

4. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

5. More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

6. The Problem…. We Love the Freedom & Mobility
But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

7. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

8. We really Need to get to Up to today:
Primarily concerned with safety standards associated with Crash Mitigation
(air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, …)
Even though Safety Doesn’t Sell,
Some Automakers are Leading the Way

9. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
Level 0 (No automation)
The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times.
Level 1 (Function-specific automation)
The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control 
Level 2 (Combined function automation)
Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations.
Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation.
Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering
Level 3 (Limited self-driving)
Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions.
Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control.
Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car
Level 4 (Full self-driving automation)
Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip.
The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system
Buses & Trucks
SmartDrivingCars,

10. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
What the Levels Deliver:
Levels 1 -> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort & Convenience
Level 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity
Revolutionizes “Mass Transit” by enabling the provision of mobility without incurring a Labor Cost
There is Fundamental Value Delivered and Need for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
throughout the evolution from Level 1 through Level 4

11. Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  )
In the Showroom Today
BAS-Plus
Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  )
Intelligent Drive (active steering  )
Volvo Truck Emergency braking

12. Why New Jersey? Observation: Action Item:
Other States are have begun to jump on this…
California & Google’s Self-Driving Car Initiative
Turned to focus investment on intelligence automation of the individual vehicle
letting the infrastructure to be optimized for the conventional driver.. Brilliant!!
Enables “Start small; grow fast”
Florida:  Automated car takes test drive on Selmon Expressway
Michigan: University of Michigan to build $6.5M track to test automated cars in Ann Arbor
Texas TTI Developing New Automated and Connected Transportation Test Bed
California NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ames
 Action Item:
Get New Jersey and the NJ/NY/PA Region nvolved by Leveraging the Ft. Monmouth Facility. Create the Job, Improve mobility safety and the environment. Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology and eventually driverless vehicles.

13. NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ames

14. Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA's most extensive testing ground

15. Why New Jersey? Observation: Action Item:
NJ Transit and many private companies operate one of the most extensive bus transit systems in the nation
The MTA and SEPTA also operate extensive bus transit systems
Average Nationwide Bus Casualty & Liability Expense in 2011 = $8,069/Bus
Action Item:
Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology for buses so as to substantially reduce the expected Bus Casualty & Liability exposure of NJ Transit and the other bus operators in the region and around the country.
This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Bus transit Companies
NJ’s and the Regions Bus (and Truck) Operators have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

16. Why New Jersey? Observation: Action Item:
New Jersey is the home of NAHQ of:
Mercedes, BMW, Subaru, Jaguar, Volvo & Ferrari
Action Item:
Create an environment that is conducive for these companies (and others) to successfully:
enhance, test and accelerate the adoption
of their versions of SmartDrivingCars
This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Car Companies
NJ’s Car Manufacturers thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

17. Why New Jersey? Observation: Action Item:
New Jersey is the home to major Wireless Communications companies:
Verizon Wireless, Qualcomm (regional office)
Only persons not engaged in driving should be consuming the services of these companies in a car.
> 80% of the time there is only one person in a car.
Communication services to this “80%” market should be restricted to times when “NHTSA Level 3” automation is available.
Action Item:
Create the SmartDrivingTechnology that is certified for “NHTSA Level 3” automation for more & more Cars and “Lane-Miles”
This creates an evermore favorable business opportunity for Wireless Service Providers.
NJ’s Wireless Service Providers thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

18. Why New Jersey? Observation: Action Item:
New Jersey is the home to major Insurance:
Munich Re NA, NJ Manufacturers, Chubb Group, Prudential, Selective
Action Item:
Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment :
To Develop SmartDrivingTechnology (SDT) such that:
PriceSDT < NetPresentValue {
Expected {AccidentLiability w/o SDT }
- Expected {AccidentLiability w SDT }}
This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Insurers
NJ’s Insurance Companies thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

19. Autonomous Car Benefits to New Jersey
Amount
Item
Units
-50%
Reduced chance of dying in a car accident
Per Collision Avoidance (Level 2) car
~ 1
Lives Saved
Per 1,000 cars equipped with Level 2
(= # new cars sold each day in New Jersey)
~300
Per year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)
Reduced chance of a collision
Injury Avoided
Per 15 cars equipped with Level 2
~20,000
Injuries Avoided
>$125
Self insurance payments
Per year per NJ driver
>$250
Insurance discount
$1.25B
Reduced Insurance Claims
Reduced Energy
Widespread autonomousTaxi Deployment
Reduced Pollution
Elimination
Road Congestion
5X increase
Ridership on NJ Transit
Widespread autonomousTaxi Deployment
1,000
Well-paying jobs
Directly connected with the Center
100,000
Created around the Center to implement Commercialization of the technology

20. Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!

21. 2011 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
2011 Nationwide
Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD
Casualty and Liability Amount
Vehicle-related
$483,076,010.
Total Buses
59,871
Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus
$8,069/Bus/Year

22. The Cost of Installing an Active Collision Avoidance System on a Bus Could be Recovered in as Little as One Year Through Reductions in Casualty and Liability Claims

23. Federal Transit Administration
The Initial Project:
Princeton University (with American Public Transit Association (APTA), Greater Cleveland Transit, and insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA)
Pending $5M Grant from
Federal Transit Administration
Focused on
Research, Certification and Commercialization of
SmartDriving Technology for Buses

24. Why Fort Monmouth? Observation: Action Item:
Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable sites for those with a Vested Interest in SmartDrivingTechnology to advance their intentions.
Action Item:
Create a Testing & Certification Environment for use by Those with a Vested Interest to collaboratively transition their products from Research to Full Commercialization

25. The Team The McAfee Center and The Fort’s Roadways The “Visionaries”
FMERA:
Vision for World-Class Advanced Technology The Fort
Princeton University:
Facilitating FMERA’s Vision with a World-Class
Center for Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars (&Trucks & Buses) (RCCS) (pronounced “R Sis”)
The “Coaching Staff”
CARTS
Corporation for Autonomous Roadway & Transit Systems
The “Players” to be “Drafted”
Automakers
Suppliers
Facilitators
Insurance
Universities
Public Sector
Mercedes Benz (HQ-NJ)
Continental
Bertram Capital
NJ Manufacturers
Princeton
NJ DMV
BMW (HQ-NJ)
Bosch
Verizon
Munich Re
Monmouth
NJ Transit
Subaru (HQ-NJ)
Delphi
AT&T
Ins. Inst. for Hwy Safety
CCNY Reg. 2 URC
NJ DoT
Ford
Texas Inst
DCH AutoGroup
State Farm
NJIT
NJTPA+DVRPC
Volvo
autonomouStuff
Qualcomm
Progressive
U of Maryland
FHWA+FTA
Jaguar
MobilEye
VisLab
Geico
Rutgers
Monmouth County
The “Venue”
The McAfee Center and The Fort’s Roadways

26. Center’s Activity Matrix
Modal Dimension
Sector Dimension
Commercialization
Certification
Research
Transit
Cars
Trucks
Center’s Activity Matrix

27. Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
Princeton University
Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
at Fort Monmouth
McAfee Complex
1250’ x 865’ ~ 25.8 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings

28. Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth
Princeton University
Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
at Fort Monmouth
Exclusive Use Roadways Area
~ 60 acres
Vehicle Bays
McAfee Office Building
~ 100,000sf
Support Buildings

29. Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
Princeton University
Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS)
at Fort Monmouth
Mixed Use Roadways
½ The Fort ~ 1 sq. mile
Exclusive Use Roadways

30. Near-term Schedule/ Milestones
Date
Item
Notes
May 7, 2014
Creation of Prospectus
May 14, 2014
Meeting with the FMERA Staff & Committees
Week of June 2
Meeting of Potential Founding Members
MB, BMW, Subaru, Verizon, Volvo, NJM, Munich Re, NJ DoT
Later in June
Public Announcement of Center’s existence
Monday, June 30
Launch of the Membership Recruiting beginning with the creation of a plan
Tuesday, July 15
Major Unveiling & recruiting TRB Automated Vehicle Conference
Cocktail SF Airport Hyatt
Friday Oct 3
Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit
McAfee Center, Fort Monmouth

31. Principal Collaborator Supporting Collaborator
Center Membership
(Revenue $ in thousands)
Patron
Principal Collaborator
Supporting Collaborator
Sum
Revenue ($)
Note
Founder's Fee (one-time) $ $ $
Annual Contribution $
Founding Members 5 15
$ 1,875
EoY 1 Members 6 7 20
$ 2,375
EoY 2 Members 10 27
$ 3,000
Steady-state Members 12 34
$ 4,000
FTE/member EoY 1 2 1
0.5 4
FTE/member EoY 2 3
FTE/member Steady-state 16
Office Space (sf) EoY 1
1,800
1,050
525
3,375
150 sf/FTE
Office Space (sf) EoY 2
3,150
3,000
750
6,900
Office Space (sf) S-S
15,000
9,000
900
24,900
Garage Space (# bays) EoY 1
1.75
0.7
Garage Space (# bays) EoY 2
2.5
Garage Space (# bays) S-S 14
1.2 18
Center Management
(Expense$ in thousands)
Numbers
Expenditure ($)
Note
Founding Staff 2
EoY 1 Staff 4
EoY 2 Staff 5
Steady-state Staff 7
Office Space (sf) Start
300 $
150 $20/sf
Office Space (sf) EoY 1
600 $
Office Space (sf) EoY 2
750 $
Office Space (sf) S-S
1,050 $
Salary*2.5 ($) Start $
$125
Overhead ($) EoY 1
$ ,300
$130
Overhead ($) EoY 2
$ ,688
$135
Overhead ($) S-S
$ ,450
$140
Research ($) EoY 1
$ ,150
Revenue$-Office$-Salary$
Research ($) EoY 2 $
Research ($) S-S
$ ,263

32. Discussion!
Thank You