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3Q 2002 Investor Presentation November 20, 2002
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Agenda TA operational highlights and achievements
Financial highlights & successful bond offering TA Orange Strategic issues Q&A
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Performance : TA standalone - YTD
EBITDA Unit : THB millions 14% Growth Revenue Expense 9% Growth 7,340 5% Growth 15,292 6,415 7,953 13,997 7,582 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02
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Performance : TA conso. - YTD (Excl. BITCO)
EBITDA Unit : THB millions 20 % Growth Expense Revenue 9,072 9 % Growth 14% Growth 17,354 7,582 15,211 8,281 7,630 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02
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Performance : TA conso. - YTD (Incl. BITCO)
EBITDA Unit : THB millions -3 % Growth Expense Revenue 23% Growth 49 % Growth 18,728 7,582 7,358 11,369 15,211 7,630 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02 Source: TA Financial System
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Performance: subscriber growth
POTS PCT 15% Growth 1,968,857 29% Growth 1,714,246 632,630 490,055 Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 01 Sep 02 DDN UBC Internet 248,136 56% Growth 9% Growth 423,986 60% Growth 6,773 389,685 154,785 4,320 Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 01 Sep 02 * * Including ~ 250 circuits which have not yet been billed due to incomplete billing process
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Performance : revenue growth
* Normalized figures
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Key corporate performance
Happy Customer Index % % Complaints per 1,000 bills Churn Rate % % Net Connect (K lines) Fault Rate % % Fault Clear (within 24 hours) % % Call Completion % % Productivity (EBITDA/employee) MB MB Items Jan-Sep 01 Jan-Sep 02
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Achievements to date Completed debenture offering and rights
Launched new service business broadband solution TA Orange subscriber surpassed 1 million AMDOCS system implemented Adopted TA Code of Conduct for staff Won Corporate Governance and Disclosure Awards Self explanatory: details will be given after EXTRA COMMENTS: More net adds than DTAC: because their sales dropped, and also they had big in prepaid due to measures they took in April We have now opened sales for 33% of the UPC population. When all clusters are opened, we will reach 55% ; that is why we Churn: we have taken all churners (pre + post) over the last 3 months, and made the average per month. More analysis will be given later on - Roaming: in fact we have more than 50 new operators live, but we are talking here only about the ‘big fishes’, that will generate incoming revenues
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Agenda TA operational highlights and achievements
Financial highlights & successful bond offering TA Orange Strategic issues Q&A
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9M02 income statement summary
Excluding BITCO * Normalized figures
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3Q02 income statement summary
Excluding BITCO * Normalized figures
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Strong growth in EBITDA and EBITDA margin
Quarterly consolidated EBITDA THB billions W/o BITCO 3Q02/3Q01 consolidated EBITDA growth With BITCO -6% Without BITCO 17% Key components of 3Q02/3Q01 EBITDA growth (without BITCO) revenue growth of 12% EBITDA margin +190 bps to 51.1% 9M02/9M01 consolidated EBITDA growth With BITCO -3% Without BITCO 20% Quarterly consolidated EBITDA margin W/o BITCO 53% 54% 52% 49% 49% 51% 46% 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02
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Core wireline and data businesses continued to make profits
Normalized net income (loss) from ongoing operations - excl. share of gain (loss) in subsidiaries and affiliates & non recurring items (on stand-alone basis) THB millions
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Balance Sheet substantially improved in October 2002
Completed debenture offering and IFC C - Loan, to repay 85% of USD debt Current USD exposure is US78 mn Completed rights offering, raising THB3 bn in proceeds to increase investment in TA Orange to 44% from 41% The rights offering doubled equity base to approximately THB6 bn Completed first phase of debt restructuring of TH& subsidiaries in September 2002 Prepayment of loans over THB1 bn to creditors Total prepayment of loans in 2002 YTD was THB1,584 mn
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EBITDA/ interest coverage Cash flow from operations
Transformed Balance Sheet and Cash Flows Key financial ratios (excluding TA Orange) Net Debt/ EBITDA EBITDA/ interest coverage US Dollar exposure Cash flow from operations THB Mn USD Mn 78 * Annualized
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Successful bond offering
Successfully placed THB18.5 bn in new debentures Tranche 1 of THB11.7 bn the second largest BBB+ or lower debentures this year was THB3.5 bn Tranche 2 (IFC partial guaranteed debentures) of THB6.75 bn the first Thai debenture with a third party partial guarantee sold out THB6.75 bn the first day Combined tranches were : the largest telecom debentures ever in Thailand the largest rated debentures ever in Thailand US$ exposure reduced by 85%
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Agenda TA operational highlights and achievements
Financial highlights & successful bond offering TA Orange Strategic issues Q&A
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TA Orange launch momentum maintained
874,000 subscribers end September 2002, currently 1.1m active subscribers Fastest ever GSM network to 1.0 million subscribers 52% postpaid, 48% prepaid (as at end Q3 2002) High quality network 100% network coverage BMA, 75% national coverage On target for 90% population coverage by year-end Enthusiastic reception for the Orange brand Brand awareness 93% 65% of customers rate after sales service excellent or good Real product innovation Thai SMS II (Nov 15th) Per second billing
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Large growth potential remains in the Thai market
The Thai mobile market will continue to expand, driven by increased competition, improving network coverage and quality, and more innovative products: Mobile penetration rates will double exceeding 50% by end 2005 New non-voice data revenue streams look set to explode driven by SMS/EMS TA Orange’s launch has coincided with an explosion in the Thai mobile market. Analysts who were last year predicting mobile penetration rates of 30% by 2005 are this year predicting penetration rates of 47%. Orange believes even this is an underestimate. Driven by increased competition, improving network coverage and quality and more innovative products penetration rates will exceed 50% in the next three years, giving a total market size of approximately 30 million subscribers. DTAC expect bad debt to rise (public announcement in September) and report a slowdown in subscriber growth (296,152 net adds in Aug, versus 351,823 in July). We suspect DTAC is purging inactive subscribers. Magnitude could be significant. Vodafone’s Annual Report discloses that 11% of its 13.2m UK subscriber base by 31 March 2002 was inactive (not made a chargeable transaction in 3m). In November 2001, SingTel purged 47% of its prepaid subscriber base (321,000 subscribers who had not made a chargeable transaction in 6m). As DTAC has SIM-only sales (whereas Vodafone did not), overall percentage could be higher than 11% – perhaps 15-20%, equating to 0.7m to 1m of its 4.9m subscribers. Similar problem is likely to exist at AIS. Sources: World Bank, Deutsche Bank, ING, Asiacom
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The competitive dynamics are changing
SIMs and handsets increasingly bought separately Overall churn will increase as consumers can use any SIM with any handset More than 70% of growth in 2003 will be from UPC Prepaid will continue to dominate
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TA Orange strategy Attracting and retaining the highest value customers Best quality network Best customer service Innovative products Best value Targeted offers Leveraging the Orange brand & brand values Distinctive positioning and communications Award-winning execution Unique team culture Maintain competitive cost structures Exploit cost synergies with CP and TA Exploit cost synergies with Orange SA TA Orange’s strategy to participate and profit from this growth is: To attract and retain the highest value customers. By offering them: - the best quality network Orange was the first to launch EFR, a new technology that enhances the sound quality of calls over our network - the best customer service In our own internal benchmarking survey 28% of Orange customers rated the attitude of the CSR ‘excellent’, more than double the scores of either of our competitors. - the most innovative products Orange has been the first to introduce Thai SMS, per second billing, and Personalised number selection into Thailand. - And TA Orange intends to offer all this at prices that we believe will make us the best value wirefree operator in the market. A further component of our strategy is to provide targeted offers aimed specifically at attracting and growing these high value segments. To-date we have done this with tailored direct marketing campaigns to the best customers (and in somecases employees) of TelecomAsia, CP Group, Citibank, UBC, and HSBC amongst others. The most successful of these direct marketing campaigns have seen take-up rates of between 15-30%. To leverage the Orange brand and brand values. The Orange brand values of Simple, Honest, Refreshing, Dynamic and Fun also define the way our employees interact with each other and the feeling any visitor gets when visiting where we work. TA Orange’s team culture is unique. In the fast-moving mobile market-place having a team that can react quickly is going to be critical for success.
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TA Orange’s active subscriber base continues to grow
Subscriber development TA Orange’s market share of net adds in Bangkok estimated at 20% in Q3 TA Orange’s cumulative market share 6% Thousands Subs end of Q1 Q2 Q3 Change Post (12%) Pre (328%) Total (74%) Post 92% 80% 52% Approximately 50-55% of sales now coming from UPC. This should increase as more clusters are rolled out during Q & Q
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Growth driven by continued improvements in coverage
Still on target for 90% GDP population coverage by December Over 2,000 sites on air in just over 1 year since 1st equipment delivery on 11 clusters launched out of 13
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Approximately 50% now coming from UPC
Activations by region % Note (from weekly KPI): Total activations by region do not synchronize with gross adds, specifically prepaid subscribers, because the sources of data are different. The number of prepaid subscribers comes from IN platform, which is accurate in terms of subscriber status and new activations. However, IN does not provide information about the channel of new prepaid subscribers. Therefore, prepaid activations by region are retrieved from AMDOCS. Because of technical problem of interface between the two systems, data might come delayed on AMDOCS. In turn, the problem produces the difference.
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Average Revenue per User continues to improve
10% growth in Q3 85% growth in Q3 Data from monthly Orange management report (OIR), excluding free airtime adjustments. Differs slightly from the data shown in last presentation which was derived from the weekly KPI report. KPI report is much more volatile as it is derived from extrapolation of weekly data. Going forward the monthly reported ARPU will be extracted from the OIR. Growth in postpaid ARPU derived from continuing adoption of higher value talk plans and the effect of churn and migration of lower end subscribers. Usage remains high at 400+ minutes. Prepaid ARPU increasing due to reduction of free airtime on connection and rapidly increasing prepaid card sales. Re-based to 100 in June-02
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Blended ARPU’s - maintaining value share in Q3
Monthly ARPU THB Monthly data presented as monthly rolling average for all three companies inline with Orange Group policy Monthly reported ARPU’s from TA Orange OIR report. AIS derived from company published data DTAC derived from Q2 ARPU’s projected onto Q3 subscriber base (may be over stated) Orange & AIS ARPU monthly , DTAC 3Q estimated
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TA Orange has retained its postpaid customers
Postpaid churn – Q3 (monthly est) Market postpaid 6.0% Market prepaid 0.9% Orange (underlying) Postpaid % Prepaid 1.0% Annualised Ambassador - 26% Annualised TA - 25% Market Churn estimated using AIS figures (60% market share) Prepaid churn is disconnected customers only, assumed same basis as for AIS reported numbers. Underlying churn excludes fraudulent connections. Fraud connections are uncovered on average after 14 days. Loss limited to the TOT access charge payable (100 Baht) and any handset subsidy if any. * excludes suspended and disconnected accounts
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Acquisition costs in rapid decline
SAC’s rapidly declining SAC’s down 87% since April driven by growth in SIM-only sales SAC’s in September were 13% of the level in April. Prepaid SIM only is running at almost zero SAC, including packaging and commissions These numbers are different from the Q2 presentation numbers which were April 100, May 92, June 34 due to timing adjustments made between the sales months. Nevertheless, the trend in the same.
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SIM-only a huge opportunity for TA Orange
No SACs means reduced risks, improved cashflows and immediate payback Increased opportunity to sell to 15m existing AIS & DTAC users who already own a handset SIM only is beneficial for the late entrant as costs of switching are reduced. Example of twin SIM usage have been noted where AIS is used for incoming calls and TA Orange used for outgoing. As the network improves all traffic should migrate to the Orange SIM.
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Ideally positioned “to become the leading wirefreeTM operator in the Thai market” best network best customer service internationally proven brand & brand values proven innovation skills complementary partner strengths
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“the futures bright, the future’s Orange”
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Agenda TA operational highlights and achievements
Financial highlights & successful bond offering TA Orange Strategic issues Q&A
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Key concerns POTS and PCT ARPU PCT subscriber base
Fair regulatory regime
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Mobile Penetration in BMA
ARPU for wireline and PCT expected to level off as mobile penetration in BMA reaching its peak With BMA mobile penetration rate decelerating,TA POTS and PCT ARPU should begin to stabilize Mobile Penetration Rate in BMA Baht/Mth/Sub 800 100% 90% 700 POTS ARPU 80% 600 70% 500 PCT ARPU 60% 400 50% 40% 300 30% 200 Projection Mobile Penetration in BMA 20% 100 10% 0% Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Source: Merrill Lynch, Billed Revenue TA, CSN market survey (July 2001),Customer Satisfaction Survey (April 2002).
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PCT subscriber base PCT subscribers decreased in 3Q02 due mainly to the termination of free handset promotions and focus on high-ARPU customers Thousand Customers 644 670 633 627 490 453 431 393 364 274 255
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Agenda TA operational highlights and achievements
Financial highlights & successful bond offering TA Orange Strategic issues Q&A
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3Q 2002 Investor Presentation November 20, 2002
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“Safe Harbor” Statement
This presentation contains statement about expected future events and financial results that are forward-looking and subject to risks and uncertainties. For those statements, we claim the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Discussion of factors that may affect future results is contained in our recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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