1. 2014 Midterm Election Results and Impact
Apollo Education Group Political Action Committee November 13, 2014

2. Senate Results and Impact

3. Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate
Control of the 113th Senate ( )
Control of the 114th Senate ( )
Democratic
Republican
Independent
Undecided 2 2
Total Seats
Democrats: 53
Republicans: 45
Independents: 2 53 45
Total Seats
Democrats: 44
Republicans: 53
Independents: 2
Undecided: 2 44 53
Analysis
Having won most of this year’s competitive races, Republicans secured at least 53 Senate seats on election night, flipping the Senate from blue to red
Additional GOP win in Alaska is still possible
If Republicans eventually expand their majority to 54 seats, they will have an easier time passing legislation in the Senate because they will need fewer Democratic defections to overcome filibusters (which require a 60 vote supermajority)
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.

4. GOP Dominates Competitive Races
SD: Mike Rounds (R), despite seeing outside money pour in against him at the last minute after reports of a scandal during his time as governor, won an easy victory over Rick Weiland (D) and former Sen. Larry Pressler (I)
GOP Dominates Competitive Races
Republican Victories
Democratic Victories
Undecided
MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R)
NH: Sen. Shaheen (D) held off a national tide against Democrats, holding on to defeat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI
CO: Cory Gardner (R) defeated Sen. Mark Udall easily after Udall ran a poor one-note campaign on reproductive health that voters didn’t engage with
Recommendations and detected threats
VA: Mark Warner (D) hung on by a hair in a surprisingly close race against Ed Gillespie (R)
AK: Dan Sullivan (R) and Sen. Mark Begich (D) will need to wait for results to come in from rural areas before their race is decided, which could take days or even weeks
NC: Thom Tillis (R) won a slim upset victory over Kay Hagan (D)
KY: Sen. McConnell (R) handily defeated Alison Grimes (D) on his way to becoming majority leader
KS: Sen. Roberts (R), after facing bad polling numbers earlier this summer, brought in a team of top-tier Republican strategists and won re-election by a wide margin over Greg Orman (I)
IA: Joni Ernst (R) handily won election over gaffe-prone Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the race for Sen. Tom Harkin (D)’s seat
AR: Tom Cotton (R) easily defeated Sen. Mark Pryor, helping to complete Arkansas’ transformation into a Republican stronghold
LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) is an underdog in a December runoff election against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)
GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a runoff, blowing out former non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn
Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline, October 13, 2014.

5. Republicans Make Gains Across the Map
Senate Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections
Democratic Gain
Democratic Hold
Republican Gain
Republican Hold
Independent Gain
Undecided/Runoff
No Election OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI
May take until November 18 to count all votes AK
Democrats: 44
Republicans: 53
Independents: 2
Undecided: 2
Runoff election will be held on December 6, 2014
Analysis
Republicans won most of 2014’s competitive Senate races, taking seats in Colorado, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, and—unexpectedly—North Carolina
Republicans also won special elections this year in Oklahoma and South Carolina
Louisiana will hold a December 6, 2014 runoff election.
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.

6. Republicans Sweep Romney States, Win Iowa and Colorado
2012 Presidential Election Results vs Senate Results OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC TN KY IN WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC GA MI
Republican win
Democratic win
2014 Senate Result
Obama 2012 Victory
Romney 2012 Victory
2012 Presidential Election Result
Undecided AK HI
Republicans picked up (CO, IA) or held (ME) 3 states in Democratic territory
Democrats struggled to hold on to most seats, and did not pick up or hold any seats in Republican territory
Source: National Journal Research with Josh Kraushaar.

7. Dems, Republicans Will Take Turns Playing Defense
in Midterms Ahead
Senate seats in play, by election year
Democrats
over-exposed
Republicans
over-exposed
Democrats
over-exposed
Source: Cook Political Report.

8. House Results and Impact

9. Republicans Win Record Majority in House
Control of the 113th House ( )
Control of the 114th House ( )
Democratic
Republican
Vacant
Undecided* 17 AK
Total Seats
Democrats: 199
Republicans: 233
Vacancies: 3
199
233 AK
Total Seats
Democrats: 175
Republicans: 243
Undecided: 17
175
243
Analysis
Republicans won a total of at least 243 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928
An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections
* Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center, November 2014.

10. Republicans Make Significant Gains in House
House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections
Democratic Gain
Democratic Hold
Republican Gain
Republican Hold
Undecided* AK
Democrats: 175
Republicans: 243
Independents: 0
Undecided:
Analysis
Republicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even larger than expected
* Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6
Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.

11. Margins of Majority Control in the House
Majority GOP
Majority Democrat
Quick Takes
After 2010, the GOP counseled state legislatures to redraw districting maps with changing demographics in mind
This strategy was intended to provide the GOP with an edge in 2012 by helping to protect vulnerable seats and to add to their growing list of seats in Southern states, and was relatively effective; despite a strong Democratic year overall and the national congressional vote slightly favoring Democrats, Republicans still held on to a strong majority
The strategy helped to further entrench gains in the Republican wave year of 2014 *
*As of 11/5/14, 6 AM, 17 races have not been called and 2 are headed to a December runoff
Source: National Journal Research, 2014; Roll Call, Nov. 8, 2012, “Redistricting Helped Limit GOP’s House Losses,” Joshua Miller; National Journal, Nov. 7, 2012, “Republicans Make Strides Towards Southern House Domination,” David Wasserman, “House GOP Won 49% of Votes, 54 Percent of Seats,” Cook Political Report, Dec. 13, 2012

12. Governing Impact

13. The 113th Congress On Track to be Least Productive since WWII
1,028 Public Laws
The 84th Congress passed more laws than any other post-WWII due to unified Dem control of both chambers
280 Public Laws
The 104th Congress reached a then-low due to partisan division following the 1995 government shutdown
163 Public Laws (as of September 2014)
The 113th Congress passed only 72 laws in 2013; while productivity has slightly increased in 2014, this Congress is still on track to be the least productive on record
Analysis
By historical standards, the past two Congresses have been incredibly unproductive; they enacted just over half as many laws in the past four years (446 as of 9/8/14) as their predecessors averaged in two (637)
Budget fights have exacerbated unproductivity, as the time spent on resolving impasses detracted from other priorities
Even with budget struggles temporarily resolved, the number of bills enacted may remain below historic norms, as Congress now passes more legislation in omnibus form; many bills in the 84th Congress might be included in one today, for example
Source: Library of Congress; “Resumé of Congressional Activity,” U.S. Senate, 2013.

14. The Senate’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat
Senate Elections: 2014 and Beyond
The Senate’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat
Number of Senate seats by State Partisan Voter Index,
Source: Cook Political Report.

15. The House’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat
2014 House Elections
The House’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat
Number of House seats by Partisan Voting Index of district
Note: “Swing” districts are defined as having an average presidential vote margin over the last two elections within five points of the national average
Source: Cook Political Report.

16. Demographic Profiles of the 113th and 114th Congresses
House
Senate D R
All
40 and Under 7% 9% 8% 0% 1%
10% 4% 2%
Women
30%
18%
20%
34%
19%
33%
11%
22%
Black
23%
Latino
13% 3% 6%
Analysis
The share of members age 40 and under, as well as the share of women and members who identify as black or Latino all increased in the 114th Congress
*Results calculated with Senate races still pending in Louisiana and Alaska, as well as 7 House races; projected winners in pending races not accounted for in this tally
Source:
Source: National Journal Research

17. Most Lawmakers In Both Chambers Have Fewer Than Six Years of Experience
12-17
years
6-11 years
0-5 years
18+ years
12-17
years
6-11 years
0-5 years
18+ years
12-17
years
6-11 years
0-5 years
18+ years
12-17 years
6-11 years
0-5 years
18+ years
12-17
years
6-11 years
0-5 years
18+ years
12-17 years
Senate is done, finish House
0-5 years
6-11 years
Analysis
The proportion of junior and senior lawmakers is roughly even in both chambers
In the House, Democrats have the smallest share of junior lawmakers (42%), while Republicans have the largest share of junior lawmakers (66%)
In the Senate, Republicans have the largest share (57%) of members with 0-5 years of experience
Source: National Journal Research, 2014.

18. Presidential Proposal Has Little Sway In Budget Process
Federal Budget Process
Procedural path
Direction of political influence
Presidential Budget
House Budget Resolution
Senate Budget Resolution
Conference Committee
Budget Enacted
House vote on Conference Report
Senate Vote on Conference Report
Analysis
Congressional, not administrative, action drives the federal budget process forward
Since Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) has announced the Senate will not pass a budget resolution for FY 2015, Congress will not go through the full budget process for FY 2015, no matter what actions the House or President take
Although the President has no formal role in the budget process—he does not even sign an enacted budget—the Presidential budget submission can be influential in terms of laying out an agenda and putting pressure on lawmakers who disagree with popular proposals
Sources: Bill Heniff, “Congressional Budget Resolutions: Historical Information,” Congressional Research Service, February 7, 2014; Sarah Mimms “Murray: Senate Democrats will not do a budget this year,” National Journal, February 28, 2014.

19. But President’s Budget Can Serve a Broader Agenda
Impact of Budget Process
Presidential
Budget
Congressional Budget Process
D.C. Policy Agenda
National Political Landscape
Analysis
Although President Obama’s FY 2015 budget request will not become law, it can serve broader goals inside the beltway and on a national scale
Sources: Damian Paletta, “Obama to Offer Budget Blueprint,” Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2014.

20. Presidential Vetoes by Congress, 1980-Present
President is Likely to Veto Legislation More Often When Opposition Controls Both Chambers
Presidential Vetoes by Congress, 1980-Present
President’s Party Controls at Least One Chamber
Opposition Controls Both Chambers
Average Number of Vetoes When Opposition Controls Both Chambers:
15.8
Average Number of Vetoes When President’s Party Controls at Least One Chamber:
6.2
Reagan
Bush I
Clinton
Bush II
Obama
Analysis
Since Ronald Reagan came into office, presidents have vetoed more than twice the number of bills during periods of opposition Congressional control than they have when at least one house of Congress is controlled by their own party
Sources: Gerhard Peters, “Presidential Vetoes: Washington-Obama,” The American Presidency Project, 2014.

21. Process of Federal Rulemaking
Federal Rulemaking Enables President to Direct the Activities of Federal Agencies
Process of Federal Rulemaking
Step 1
Agency realizes a rule is necessary, brought about by either a petition, a congressional order, a federal order, a Presidential directive, a lawsuit, or an accident
Step 2
The rule is put up for public comment for a period of 60 days
Step 3
Agency collects and reviews comments, preparing final draft of regulation
Step 4
Agency submits rule to Congress and General Accounting Office, no later than 30 days after the close of public comments
Step 5
The rule is published in the Federal Register; regulation enters compliance, interpretation, and review phase
Agency can establish “good cause” to skip steps 2 and 3 if rule has a narrow or minor impact or if problem must be addressed imminently.
Analysis
Rulemaking may be a slower route to circumventing Congress than executive orders, which can be signed into law immediately
However, rules are also harder to revoke by future administrations
Sources: Federal Register, 2013; ICF Consulting; Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, OMB, 2013.

22. Key Senate and House Committee Overview

23. Senate HELP Committee Overview
Jurisdiction
Committee Members
The Senate HELP (Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions) Committee deals with the wide range of issues encompassed by its acronym, including higher ed policy, occupational health and safety, and medical research and development.
Major Upcoming Issues
Ebola
Public concern regarding the virus is pushing the committee to find out if legislative action is needed to support U.S. efforts to combat the disease both domestically and abroad
FDA Innovation
The committee is trying to legislate around outdated FDA restrictions on specific products and medicines, such as sunscreen, which are preventing U.S. product innovation
National Labor Relations Board Appointments
The committee will likely confirm nominees for current vacancies on the board before a possible Republican takeover
Student Loans
The committee will likely take more action on finding legislative solutions to the student loan crisis either before or after the elections
Republicans (10)
Ranking Member: Lamar Alexander (R-TN)*
Mike Enzi (R-WY)*
Richard Burr (R-NC)
Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
Rand Paul (R-KY)
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
Pat Roberts (R-KS)*
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Mark Kirk (R-IL)
Tim Scott (R-SC)*
Democrats (12)
Chairman: Tom Harkin (D-IA)†
Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)
Patty Murray (D-WA)
Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Bob Casey (D-PA)
Kay Hagan (D-NC)*
Al Franken (D-MN)*
Michael Bennet (D-CO)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Defeated in 2014 Midterm Election
*Up for re-election in 2014
†Retiring after 2014
Sources: National Journal Research, 2014.

24. House Education and the Workforce Committee Overview
Jurisdiction
Committee Members
The House Education and the Workforce Committee oversees issues relating to employer/employee relations, workplace regulations, and education policy.
Major Upcoming Issues
Labor Regulatory Agency Reform
The committee is holding hearings on the NLRB and EEOC regarding new regulations and guidelines put out by the agencies governing the nature of wages, hours, and joint employer status
The committee is also exploring options for increased independent oversight of both agencies
Student Privacy
The committee is studying potential legislative solutions to address concerns about data mining and student privacy
Republicans (23)
Democrats (17)
Ranking Member: George Miller (D-CA)†
Bobby Scott (D-VA)
Ruben Hinojosa (D-TX)
Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY)†
John Tierney (D-MA)†
Rush Holt (D-NJ)† Susan Davis (D-CA)
Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)
Tim Bishop (D-NY)
David Loebsack (D-IA)
Joe Courtney (D-CT)
Marcia Fudge (D-OH)
Jared Polis (D-CO)
Gregorio Sablan (D-MP)
Fredrica Wilson (D-FL)
Mark Pocan (D-WI)
Mark Takano (D-CA)
Chairman: John Kline (R-MN)
Thomas Petri (R-CA)
Buck McKeon (R-CA)†
Joe Wilson (R-SC)
Virginia Foxx (R-NC)
Tom Price (R-GA)
Kenny Marchant (R-TX)
Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
David Roe (R-TN)
Glenn Thompson (R-PA)
Tim Walberg (R-MI)
Matt Salmon (R-AZ)
Brett Guthrie (R-KY)
Scott DesJarlais (R-TN)
Todd Rotika (R-IN)
Larry Bucshon (R-IN)
Lou Barletta (R-PA)
Joe Heck (R-NV)
Mike Kelly (R-PA)
Susan Brooks (R-IN)
Richard Hudson (R-NC)
Luke Messer (R-IN)
Bradley Byrne (R-AL)
Defeated in 2014 Midterm Election *Tossup Race According to the Cook Political Report
†Retiring after 2014
Source: National Journal Research, 2014.

25. Governors/State Results and Impact

26. State Elections 2014 No 2014 Elections--4 House Only--4
What’s at stake--2014
--Most legislative seats are up for election this year.
-- 82% of Legislative Seats up
--46 States
No Legislative Elections in LA, MS, NJ & VA
No Senate elections in KS, NM, MN & SC
--36 Governors Races
--20 R and 16 D
No 2014 Elections--4
House Only--4
Governor Election--36

27. State Legislatures 2014 Republican- 27 Democrat- 19 Split- 3
2010 was a the best election for Republicans at the state level in decades and they added to that in 2011
-They gained over 740 seats in 2010 and 2011 picking up 22 chambers
Pre-election
--26 states where Republicans hold both chambers—highest since 1928 when they held 27.
--3 are divided--fewest number of divided legislatures since 1944
Chambers: 57 R chambers to 41 D and shifts to 59 R vs 39 D if you move NY and WA senates
NE is actually R control and New York and Washington Senates are coalitions so this is actually better for Republicans than it looks
Republican- 27
Democrat- 19
Split- 3
Nonpartisan

28. Party Control Shifts 2014 --11 Chambers
Democrat Gains
Republican Gains
Colorado Senate
Maine Senate
Minnesota House
Nevada Assembly
Nevada Senate
New Hampshire House
New Mexico House
New York Senate
Washington Senate
West Virginia House
West Virginia Senate

29. State Legislatures 2015 Republican - 30 Democrat - 11 Split - 8
Nonpartisan

30. Governor Party 2014
Republican - 29
Democrat- 21

31. Governor Party 2015 Republican - 31 Democrat - 18 Undecided - 1
2014 changes
Party switches 2014
Penn R to D Tom Wolf
Ark D to R Asa Hutchinson
Illinois D to R Rauner
Maryland D to R Hogan
Mass D to R Baker
MD D to R Hogan
New govs
Raimondo in RI
Ricketts in NE
AZ-Gov. Doug Ducey
Republican - 31
Democrat - 18
Undecided - 1

32. Attorneys General
AG’s followed the Republican wave
Republicans AG’s increased from 24 to 27 – key pick-ups in AR, NV and TN
All incumbents won and all seats considered Republican were held