1. Climate Change Adaptation

2. The 21st Century Climate Challenge “One generation plants a tree;
the next generation gets the shade.”
Chinese Proverb

3. The 21st Century climate challenge
Defining dangerous – keeping below a 2 degree increase in temperature
Three distinctive characteristics – it is cumulative, the effects are irreversible and it is global
Common but differentiated responsibility – The carbon footprint

4. Some people walk more lightly than others
The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility

5. Rich countries deeper carbon footprint
The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2 than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million)
The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people)
The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries …

6. How many planets?
The 21st century carbon budget amounts to 1,456 Gt or around 14.5 Gt CO2 per year
Total CO2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29 Gt
If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2

7. The Global carbon account
Establishing a 21st Century carbon budget
Defining a sustainable emission’s pathway
The problem of inertia– the case for adaptation

8. Five human development tipping points
Reduced agricultural productivity
Heightened water insecurity
Increased exposure to extreme weather events
Collapse of ecosystems
Increased health risks

9. Risk and vulnerability In an unequal world
Climate shocks:
Risk and vulnerability
In an unequal world
“The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves. They also contribute least to the global emissions of greenhouse gases. Without action they will pay a high price for the actions of others.”
Kofi Annan

10. Disaster risk is skewed
towards developing countries
1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries
The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in developed countries

11. Crop Yield Change
Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice.
Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

12. What does Pakistan Face?
Key sectors, water and agriculture at risk
Increased variability of monsoon
Increased risks of floods, droughts, tropical storms and forest fires etc.
Severe water stress in arid and semi-arid regions
HKH Glaciers melt due to global warming and seasonal variability
Reduction in capacity of natural resources
Large reduction of productivity of both warm and cold water fish

13. Case for Adaptation
Pakistan is most vulnerable to the climatic change because:
Large part of the economy is based on agriculture
Low technological and scientific base and have limited access to knowledge
Low capacity to adapt to change
Limited financial and institutional capacities

14. Some Recent Events In Pakistan Attributable To Climate Change In Pakistan
Severe urban storm flooding in Lahore, due to 500 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 12 July, 1996
History’s worst drought in Pakistan in
Severe cyclonic Storm hit the coastal areas of Pakistan and India in 1999.
621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during10 hours in July, 2001
Disastrous cyclone hit the coastal areas of Balochistan in July, 2007

15. Adapting To The Inevitable: National Action And International Cooperation

16. The National Challenge
There are no blueprints for successful climate change adaptation
So far, adaptation planning has been a fringe activity in developing countries
Adaptation related work remains under-financed, poorly coordinated and weakly managed
Building the coping capacity and resilience among poorest segments of society is limited to rhetoric revolving around MDGs and pro-poor growth

17. Four “I”s for Successful Adaptation Planning
“Information” for effective planning
“Infrastructure” for climate-proofing
“Insurance” for social risk management and poverty reduction
“Institutions” for disaster risks management

18. “Information” for Effective Planning
In planning for adaptation to climate change, information is power
Countries lacking the capacity and resources to track meteorological patterns, forecast impacts and assess risk are vulnerable to extensive damages

19. “Infrastructure” for Climate-proofing
Climate change has important implications for planning of infra-structural investments
Rising sea levels, increased exposure to floods and higher temperatures all affect the viability of investments in infra-structure development
US $ 1 invested in pre-disaster risk management activities in developing countries can prevent US $ 7 in losses

20. “Insurance” for Social Protection
Social protection safety nets for the poor needs to be strengthened in following areas:
Employment programme (cash for work for quick recovery)
Cash transfers to the marginalized for access to basic services
Crisis-related transfers to restore livelihoods

21. “Institutions” for Disaster Risk Management
DRM integrated in local government structure
Civil society organizations integral part of DRM strategies and information sharing
Central and regional governments need to be fully resourced to deal with potential disasters risks