1. “Disease of Uncertainty” not the “Symptom of Fear”
Attacking the
“Disease of Uncertainty”
not the “Symptom of  Fear”
7/26/2016

2. FEAR

3. Thinking about the housing crisis that started in 2008, when many people and families defaulted on their mortgages and lost their homes, I think the housing crisis is pretty much over
MacArthur Foundation

4. Uncertainty…

5. Where Is the Opportunity?

6. trust

7. Do they know what is happening? Do they know why it is happening?
Three Questions
Do they know what is happening?
Do they know why it is happening?
Do they know how to communicate it?

8. Today, we will…
1. Prove the housing market is primed for tremendous growth over the next 18 months
2. Debunk the myth that we are heading for a new housing bubble
3. Dispel the concerns potential buyers have regarding today’s mortgage environment

9. Today, we will…
1. Prove the housing market is primed for tremendous growth over the next 18 months
2. Debunk the myth that we are heading for a new housing bubble
3. Dispel the concerns potential buyers have regarding today’s mortgage environment

10. their highest annual pace since February 2007.”
“With last month's gain,
sales are now up 4.5%
from May 2015 and are at
their highest annual pace
since February 2007.”
- Lawrence Yun
NAR’s Chief Economist

11. “Now in its seventh year, the US
economic recovery shows signs
of slowing in the face of a strong
dollar, a weakening global economy,
and low energy prices.
But as household growth continues to gain momentum, the housing sector should be an engine of growth.”
- Joint Center For Housing Studies
of Harvard University

12. “Demand for homes has been especially strong as more
Americans find work, wages edge
higher and mortgage rates remain historically low. We still have some ground to make up but housing remains a bright spot in the economy.”
- Freddie Mac

13. Homeownership is… an achievement to be proud of a dream come true
a dream come true
Ipsos

14. Buying a home is an excellent long-term
investment because it is likely to increase
in value over time and it is one of the best
ways for people to build
wealth and assets:
MacArthur Foundation

15. Average Effective
Rent in the U.S.
WSJ, AxioMetrics

16. % of Renters Who Prefer to Own Increasing
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

17. % of Renters Who Plan to Buy Increasing
Federal Reserve Bank of New York

18. “The more sustainable housing markets should allow for
positive feedback loops in local economies, with strengthening job
and income gains for residential real estate agents, mortgage bankers and home improvement workers.”
- David Berson, Nationwide's
SVP and chief economist

19. Today, we will…
1. Prove the housing market is primed for tremendous growth over the next 18 months
2. Debunk the myth that we are heading for a new housing bubble
3. Dispel the concerns potential buyers have regarding today’s mortgage environment

20. Existing Home Sales
2016
2015
2014

21. HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year Last 12 Months June www.realtor.org
NAR 7/2016

22. Buyer Traffic By State NAR
NAR

23. Seller Traffic By State NAR
NAR

24. The two reasons prices are continuing to appreciate Supply of Homes
realtor.com

25. Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State
CoreLogic

26. Home Price
A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists.

27. PROJECTED Mean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey Q

28. Cumulative House Appreciation by 2020
All
Projections
Bulls
Bears
Home Price Expectation Survey Q

29. Today, we will…
1. Prove the housing market is primed for tremendous growth over the next 18 months
2. Debunk the myth that we are heading for a new housing bubble
3. Dispel the concerns potential buyers have regarding today’s mortgage environment

30. How Many Americans “Don’t Know”?
40%
54%
59%
????????????
Fannie Mae

31. Percentage who believe a 20% down payment
is required to purchase a home
Ipsos

32. 3% 620 45% Fannie Mae Requirements * Minimum % Down Payment Required
Maximum Back-End DTI Ratio 3%
Minimum Credit Score Required
620
45%
*up to 50% with
compensating factors *

33. “The high median credit scores are due to many
millennials believing they
won’t qualify with the score
they have - and are waiting to apply for a mortgage until they have the score they think they need.”
NAREE 50th Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference
- Jonas Moe
Ellie Mae Senior VP

34. “Consumers are cautious more than they have been in the past
and thus the self-sidelining of
cautious/discouraged consumers
makes it appear as if credit is tightening.
More consumer education such as counseling and financial literacy programs could be as or more successful in raising origination levels than introducing new lending products with lower credit standards.”
CoreLogic
MarketPulse Report

35. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages from Freddie Mac
Freddie Mac 7/2016

36. Mortgage Rate Projections
Quarter
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
MBA
NAR
Average
of All Four
2016 4Q
3.7
4.1
4.00
2017 1Q
3.6
4.2
4.3
4.08
2017 2Q
3.8
4.4
4.5
4.28
2017 3Q
4.6
4.7
N/A
4.37
7/2016

37. Mortgage Rates 30 Year Fixed Rate - Actual - Projected
Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR

38. This Thursday, July 28th at 2PM EST
You can register at:
BRIDGE Builders

42. Made high school varsity as an 8th grader
Voted team captain as a freshman
Won a Youth Basketball of America National
Championship
Won an AAU National Championship
All State Player as a junior and senior
Played Division I college basketball
Went on to play basketball in Italy
When he returns to that gym in the
city, he is known as ‘snowflake’
Won Coach of the Year
honors for leading his High School
alma mater’s women’s basketball
team to a county championship
Coached women’s basketball at the Division III collegiate level

44. Coach Steven Harney

45. 1. Attacking the “Disease of Uncertainty” not the “Symptom of Fear”
2.       Short Description:
Uncertainty creates fear. Fear creates paralysis. The uncertainty in the housing market right now is causing sellers to be afraid to put their homes on the market and causing Millennials to fear jumping off the fence into homeownership. Most agents mistakenly try to treat the symptom of fear. Great mortgage professionals know fear won’t go away until they kill the uncertainty that creates it.
3.       3 Big Takeaways:
In a rapid fire session, Steve will…
·         Prove the housing market is primed for tremendous growth over the next 18 months.
·         Debunk the myth that we are heading for a new housing bubble.
·         Dispel the concerns potential buyers have regarding today’s mortgage environment.