1. American Leadership of Science and Technology: Reality or Myth?
Duane Shelton, Brad Mooney, Geoff Holdridge
International Technology Research Institute
Loyola College / ITRI; ITRI, Inc.
Baltimore, Maryland, USA

3. Purpose of Paper US Goal for World Leadership in S&T
Qualitative Data on US Leadership -- From Our ITRI Studies
Quantitative Data on US Leadership
Conclusion: Reality or Myth?
Recommendation: A Better Goal

4. US Goals for S&T Leadership
Bill Clinton’s goal: “Maintaining world leadership in science, mathematics, and engineering...”
Bruce Alberts, “The United States is today the undisputed world leader in science and technology.”
But, when we sent American peer reviewers abroad, one could indeed dispute.
One definition of “myth” is that it is “an ill-founded belief held uncritically, especially by an interested group.”
So, just what is that foundation?

5. Qualitative Methods: ITRI International Technology Assessments
ITRI conducts public studies of S&T abroad using study tours by experts for:
Assessment of status and trends relative to US
Technology transfer
Finding opportunities for international cooperation
Started by the US in 1983 when Japanese captured high-tech international markets and increased investments in R&D

6. Bottom Line: U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit
Some progress in the late 80s, but ...

8. ITRI Study Methods and Milestones
= delivery of
results to sponsors

9. An ITRI Delegation of American Engineers

10. Sample ITRI Findings

11. Sample ITRI Findings

12. Fields Which US Does Not Lead

13. More Fields Not Led by the US

14. Average ITRI Assessments; Japan Ahead of U. S
Average ITRI Assessments; Japan Ahead of U.S. = 4, Even = 3, Behind = 2. (about three studies per year)
Also 59% of panels rated Japan as gaining, 36% as staying even, and only 5% as losing
ground to U.S. Sleeping Tiger? Japan’s Continuing Advances in S&T. (1997)
Because of bias in selecting topics, US is rated 1st, but...

15. Leadership from Quantitative Metrics: Papers, Impacts, Patents, High-Tech Market Share, Investments, etc.
Adams has assessed papers, citations, and impacts for 7 countries. The U.S. is far ahead of the others in papers and citations in all 47 fields studied, partly because of its size.
He shows that in impacts, providing normalization, the US leads in about three-fourths of the fields (1996 data).

16. Another way to adjust for the size of the U. S
Another way to adjust for the size of the U.S. is to compare its output to EU – not so tightly organized as the U.S. but becoming more so. Leydesdorff (2000) analyzes this issue using predictions of trends
He also shows that the U.S. share of scholarly (S&T+) publication output was surpassed by the EU in 1995; these shares continue to diverge at over 1% per year.

17. May shows that, while the U. S
May shows that, while the U.S. is first in papers and citations, dividing by the country’s research investment or population puts the U.S. well down the list in productivity.
He also compared investments in R&D in 12 countries, , and found that Sweden and Japan overtook the U.S. and Germany as the top spenders relative to GDP.

18. The Bottom Line: Who Leads the U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit?
Leaders:

19. Trade Surplus and International Market Share in High-Tech Products
Leaders

20. Is this a wake up call?

21. Leadership in S&T Publications (ISI Data)

22. Publications in 20 Fields of S&T
Leaders

23. Good News for the US: Relative Impacts Compare Well to EU, AP
The US is far ahead of the EU and AP regions in relative impacts; EU leads only in plant & animal science in 1999
US relative impact in 1994 averaged 1.33 for the 20 S&T fields (EU:1.04, AP:0.71) data is similar.

24. Bad News: The US Does Not Lead in Impacts in All 20 S&T Fields
Bad News: The US Does Not Lead in Impacts in All 20 S&T Fields. (Number of fields ahead of US in relative impact)

25. And the US is Not the World Leader in Relative Impacts.
Switzerland leads the US in 12 of 20 fields. It has led the US in relative impacts since 1982 for the total of the 24 fields on the ISI CD.
At least one country leads the US in every field except 3: Molecular Biology, Neuroscience, and Multidisciplinary Papers.
Leaders

26. Patent Highlights
NSF/SRS shows US and Japan about equal in patenting in neutral countries (1994 data)
The US leads Japan in overall international patenting (OECD 1996 data)
Porter (1999) uses international patenting to evaluate the position of 25 economies, and to find the most significant inputs. US leads in outputs and aggregate input (“innovation index”), but the model predicts that Japan and some EU nations will soon overtake the US.
Leaders:

27. Conclusion: Does the U.S. lead in S&T?

28. Does the U.S. lead in S&T? (More Metrics).
Thus, the results are mixed
* There are many disciplines where Japan leads the US.

29. Recommendation: A Realistic Goal for International Leadership
International challenge helps everyone raise $ for S&T and can be measurable
But present goal begs the question of leadership and gives no guidance on measurement
Proposed Goal: “The U.S. Government will help American S&T lead the world in most disciplines as measured by expert review and quantitative metrics.”

30. For more info http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/home.htm

31. Extrapolation of Long-Term Trends Forecast U. S Leadership vs
Extrapolation of Long-Term Trends Forecast U.S Leadership vs. EU and AP