1. National Economic Outlook
Rick Kaglic
February 16, 2017

2. The views expressed here are those of the presenter and not of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Good afternoon. It’s a pleasure to be here today. I’d like to thank the NCTMA for inviting me to talk about the economy here in the carolinas
Before I begin, I should note that the views I share today are my own — and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System
I know the Fed can seem complex, and it’s often misunderstood.
While you all know that the Federal Reserve’s actions impact the broader economy, you should also be aware that the Fed impacts you personally.
Every day you make financial decisions that affect your quality of life, like whether to save or borrow money, what to buy and how to pay for it.
Similarly, businesses decide whether to invest in new equipment or buildings, or hire more employees.
The Federal Reserve’s affect these decisions, and in turn, your financial well-being and our economy.
So, I want to take just a moment to talk about the Fed’s role in the economy before we delve into it.

3. Real Gross Domestic Product
FOMC Projection Q4
1.9%
Note: Projection is the median, central tendency, and range from the December 2016 Summary of Economic Projections. Red dots indicate median projections. Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics & Federal Reserve Board

4. Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

5. Decomposition of Real GDP
Note: Productivity is calculated as real GDP per employee, from the Household Survey.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

6. Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

7. Measures of Labor Utilization
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

8. Labor Force Participation
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

9. Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business
Quarterly Change at Annual Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

10. Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics

11. Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index
Notes: FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the December 2016 meeting. Red dots indicate median projections.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

12. Gauges of Inflation
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: BEA, BLS, & Commodity Research Bureau via Haver Analytics

13. TIPS Inflation Compensation
January 27th
Source: Board of Governors Research Series via Haver Analytics

14. Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Funds Rate
Note: Each dot in the chart represents the value of an FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate
target range (or the appropriate target level) for the federal funds rate at the end of the calendar year.
Projections made for the September 2016 meeting.
Source: Board of Governors

15. The views expressed here are those of the presenter and not of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Good afternoon. It’s a pleasure to be here today. I’d like to thank the NCTMA for inviting me to talk about the economy here in the carolinas
Before I begin, I should note that the views I share today are my own — and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System
I know the Fed can seem complex, and it’s often misunderstood.
While you all know that the Federal Reserve’s actions impact the broader economy, you should also be aware that the Fed impacts you personally.
Every day you make financial decisions that affect your quality of life, like whether to save or borrow money, what to buy and how to pay for it.
Similarly, businesses decide whether to invest in new equipment or buildings, or hire more employees.
The Federal Reserve’s affect these decisions, and in turn, your financial well-being and our economy.
So, I want to take just a moment to talk about the Fed’s role in the economy before we delve into it.