1. The impact of FRS response times on fire, RTC and Special service loss of life: statistical evidence
Greenstreet Berman Ltd, Michael Wright T:
Research, evaluation, consultancy
Used IRS data , commissioned by DCLG to get an update on profile of people dieing in fires using IRS data
Answer questions – why need data - who is most at risk
Briefly discuss data sources

2. 2012 DCLG funded research
IRS data ( ) allows analysis of response times re:
Fires
Special services
RTCs
2nd and 3rd response time
Serious injuries vs response times

3. Dwelling fire casualties (1 minute time bands)

4. Dwelling Fire response time fatality rates (IRS data, 27219 casualties)
5.9%
7.8% = 1 in 12 if in 21 to 25 minutes
19% = 1 in 5 if over 25 minutes
So 10 mins seems important
exponential

5. Dwelling fire serious injuries

6. Other building fire casualties, 3220 casualties

7. Fire damage (hotels)
A linear relationship

9. Deaths in selected special services attended by English FRSs

10. Trends in selected FRS special services - England

11. RTC extrications – 27680 casualties

12. Medical – co and first responding

13. “Raw” chest pain response data
Relationship less clear with more time categories due to few cases with longer responses times

15. Co and first responding – does the FRS response time matter?
Response times impact survival
Chest pain
Breathing difficulties
Probably – fewer cases
Medical other
Unconscious
No response time impact on survival
Lift patient
Choking
Collapse
Shock

17. Rescue from water

19. Other transport incidents

20. Suicide attempts

21. Do the 2nd appliance response times matter? Fires
Able to now plot times for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th appliance
This shows % who die where 2nd appliance is same/slower
Need to plot national data for many years for pattern to appear casualties
Need a good spread of times to see the relationship
Similar result if plot 3rd appliance times

22. Do response times matter?
Do the 2nd appliance response times matter?
Do response times matter?
Many FRS setting response time standards at 10 minutes, some set at 5 mins for high risk areas.
Rise from 2.3% (1 in 43) to 3.4% (1 in 30) if 2 in 5 vs 1 in 5 and 1 in 6 to 10
If 2 in 11 to 15 then 5% (1 in 20) die – double chance of death cf to 2 in 5.
If 2 in 21 to 25 then 12% die – 5 times more likely to die
Consistent with research into smoke toxicology and flash over

23. RTCs – 2nd response times

24. Response time trends

25. Conclusions
Strong statistical evidence of FRS response times impacting loss of life in fire, RTCs and some other special services
2nd appliance response times matter for some types of incidents
Response times also related to risk of serious injuries for some types of incidents.

26. Thank you