1. Some reasons why you should study Geographic Information Science (GIS)
Professor Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr
22 July 2017

2. GIS is a good career because, GIS allows you:
to study climate change
to analyze cropland loss due to urban growth in China
to create computer models to simulate land change
to develop policies to reduce climate change caused by deforestation
to do many other things

3. Sea Surface Temperature

4. August 1982 minus February 1982

5. February 2010 minus February 1982

6. August 1982 minus February 1982

7. February 2010 minus February 1982

8. Changsha

9. Changsha

10. Changsha

11. Changsha

12. Changsha

13. Changsha

14. Changsha

15. Xiamen

16. Xiamen

17. Xiamen
Outside Coastal Zone Inside Coastal Zone

18. Xiamen

19. Data uncertainty concerning gross urban loss

20. Data uncertainty concerning gross urban loss

21. Data uncertainty concerning gross urban loss

22. Maps claim to show forest versus non forest

23. Rectangles reflect satellite images

24. Would you trust to indicate forest versus non-forest?

25. Deforestation accouts for 18% of emissions
GEOG260/ID260, Spring 2001
Deforestation accouts for 18% of emissions
Transportation 13.5%
Energy & Heat 24.6%
Other Fuel Combustion 9.0%
Industry 10.4%
Fugitive Emissions 3.9%
Industrial Processes 3.4%
Land Use Change 18.2%
Agriculture 13.5%
Waste 3.6%
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 77%
HFCs, PFCs, SF6 1%
Methane (CH4) 14%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 8%
Solution requires addressing all emissions areas, but CI comparative advantage is forest conservation, and also some energy policy.
Background:
Global program of biological sequestration – one-third of a trillion tons of CO2 could be sequestered (absorbed and stored) by 2050 by restoring degraded and fragmented natural ecosystems, by protecting threatened wilderness areas and intact natural ecosystems from being destroyed, and adopting best practices in the agriculture and forest products sectors. These are vital and necessary actions to help achieve atmospheric stabilization of low GHG concentration targets (≤450 ppm) consistent with minimizing impacts on biodiversity. Having standing forests, grasslands, mangroves, peat lands and wetlands eligible for carbon trading also opens up literally tens of billions of dollars for conservation in countries where CI works. If not strictly mission-critical, forest sequestration is at least so important to CI’s mission that it deserves to be ranked as a near equal to mission-critical outcomes.

26. Highway in Pará, Brazil
Pontius Jr, Robert Gilmore, Robert Walker, Robert Yao-Kumah, Eugeino Arima, Stephen Aldrich, Marcellus Caldas and Dante Vergara Accuracy assessment for a simulation model of Amazonian deforestation. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 97(4):

27. Regional Strata

28. Household Sub-Strata

29. Reference with 26% deforestation in 1999

30. Simulation with 15% deforestation
target intercept = 40
frontier speed = 0.8
maximum duration = 6

31. Simulation with 24% deforestation
target intercept = 60
frontier speed = 0.8
maximum duration = 3

32. Simulation with 49% deforestation
target intercept = 80
frontier speed = 1.6
maximum duration = 3

33. Prediction with 15% deforestation
target intercept = 40
frontier speed = 0.8
maximum duration = 6
Correct Rejections
False Alarms
Hits
Misses

34. Prediction with 24% deforestation
target intercept = 60
frontier speed = 0.8
maximum duration = 3
Correct Rejections
False Alarms
Hits
Misses

35. Prediction with 49% deforestation
target intercept = 80
frontier speed = 1.6
maximum duration = 3
Correct Rejections
False Alarms
Hits
Misses

36. GEOG260/ID260, Spring 2001
How much can forest carbon projects help mitigate climate change and reach stabilization goals?
Goal is to prevent accumulated emissions from trajectory by ~400 billion tC by 2050.
100 billion tons could come from land-based carbon offsets. (

37. Clean Development Mechanism
GEOG260/ID260, Spring 2001
Clean Development Mechanism
Annex I countries with Kyoto commitments invest in emissions reducing projects in developing countries, which is an alternative to more costly emission reductions in Annex I countries.
The plan is project-based, incentive-based, and market-driven.
The Clean Development Mechanism aims:
to assist Annex I countries to achieve targets.
to assist Annex II countries to achieve sustainable development.
Characteristics:
Activities must lead to measurable reductions and be tradable.
Reductions must be additional, meaning that reductions would not have occurred in absence of the project activity.
Participation is voluntary.

38. Forestry based Carbon Offset Projects
GEOG260/ID260, Spring 2001
Forestry based Carbon Offset Projects
The plan allows an industrialized country to exceed emission limit, if the country funds a project to either sequester carbon or to prevent emissions due to forest burning.

39. Forestry based Carbon Offset Projects
GEOG260/ID260, Spring 2001
Forestry based Carbon Offset Projects
On the positive side, the plan
- pays nature for its ecosystem services.
- can have side benefits.
- encourages sustainable development.
- encourages collaboration among nations.

40. Forestry based Carbon Offset Projects
GEOG260/ID260, Spring 2001
Forestry based Carbon Offset Projects
On the negative side, the plan
- has scientific and philosophical challenges.
- creates a setting for abuse.
- could become a form of neocolonialism.

41. GIS is a good career because, GIS allows you:
to study climate change
to analyze cropland loss due to urban growth in China
to create computer models to simulate land change
to develop policies to reduce climate change caused by deforestation
to do many other things