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Real-time NPJ Phase Diagram 2017 Verification Statistics (Updated: 3 April 2017)
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Notes for Interpretation
Jet Regimes, for the purpose of analyzing forecast skill, were defined according to the position in the phase diagram when a particular forecast was initialized. Forecasts by month were classified according to the date a particular forecast was initialized (e.g., a forecast initialized Jan. 31, is grouped into the January bin). For the time series plots, each point along the black line corresponds to the error of the #-day forecast that was initialized on that particular day, NOT the error on the day the #-day forecast verified.
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Reliability Diagram (Sept 1–Apr. 3)
Perfect Reliability The GEFS appears to be underdispersive with respect to medium-range forecasts of the North Pacific Jet in the phase diagram
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GFS Average Error – Regime
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GFS Average Error – Month
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Average GEFS Mean Error – Regime
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Average GEFS Mean Error – Month
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Average GEFS Ens. Member Error – Regime
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Average GEFS Ens. Member Error – Month
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GEFS POD – Regime
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GEFS POD – Month
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
1-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
2-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
3-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
4-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
5-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
6-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
7-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
8-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error
9-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day
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