1. Journalism 614: Public Opinion and Policy Making

2. Changes in Global Warming Opinion

3. Changes in Global Warming Opinion

4. Same-Sex Marriage Opinion

5. Same-Sex Marriage Opinion by Party ID

6. Public Opinion on Immigration Policy

7. Public Opinion on Immigration by Party

8. Opinion and Policy
What influence do these indicators of public opinion have on public policy?
Are our elites responsive to public opinion?
Do special interests have a greater influence over policy making than public opinion?
Under what conditions do governments act in accordance with mass opinion?

9. Policy Responsiveness
“Open interplay of opinion and policy is the distinguishing mark of popular rule” - H. Lasswell
A normative view of democracy
Concerns the way things should be
Conversely, “Democratic government only amounts to a hoax, a ritual whose performance serves only to delude the people and thereby to convert them into willing subjects of the powers that be -- V.O. Key

10. Various Possibilities
Public opinion constrains public policy
Public opinion exerts strong influence to direct or redirect government policy
Public opinion ignored in policy making, while special interest and corporate voices are heard
Public opinion is molded by elites into alignment with preferred policies

11. Opinion as Policy Influence
Domestic Policy
Civil Rights Act - Calls for desegregation
Roe v. Wade - Growing support for abortion
Capital Punishment - Legalized, again but…
Foreign policy
Vietnam War - Public Call for Withdrawal
China in UN - Public Opposition Eroded
War in Iraq - Declining Support for Troops

12. Opinion Ignored, Sometimes
Reduce Foreign Aid
Cut Back on Space Program
Support School Prayer
Support More Stringent Gun Control
Often the influence of strong lobbying groups
Often in response to international threats

13. Responsiveness Heightened When…
Elected officials more responsive near elections - often through party influence
Elected officials who view themselves as “delegates” — not “politicos” — respond
Elected officials respond to interest groups that reflect the views of public groups
Aggregate and articulate: Democratic pluralism
Elected officials respond to dominant elites

14. Evidence of Responsiveness
Monroe - studied 500 cases of consistency or inconsistency between government policy and majority public opinion
Consistent 55% between
Decline from 63% during the period
Foreign policy decisions tended to be among the most consistent – 67% in both periods
In cases of inconsistency, public wanted change but government stayed with the status quo

15. Examining Response to Change
Page and Shapiro - Do changes in opinion produce changes in policy?
Policy congruent with opinion 66% of time
The larger the shift in the opinion the more responsive government was to opinion

16. Examining Issue Salience
Burstein - Issue salience enhances the impact of elite responsiveness to opinion
The impact of opinion remains strong even when the activities of political organizations and elites are taken into account
Responsiveness appears not to have changed significantly over time

17. Localized Responsiveness
Vietnam and Troop Withdrawals
Defense Spending
Respond to aggregated national opinion
Roll Call Voting - Community Focused
Miller and Stokes find that elected officials are responsive to the opinions of constituents
Greater for highly salient issues - e.g., Race

18. Ideological Responsiveness
Respond to ideological climate — public mood — not specific policy preferences
The notion of “public sentiment”
Sense of support for an ideology
Used as basis for range of policies
Long-term responsiveness of ideological mood to public policy change
Stimson, MacKuen, & Erikson

19. Portrait of Responsiveness?
Do we have democratic decision-making through the influence of mass opinion?
If policies don’t reflect view of majority or growing minority, who do they support?
Is the government responsive or do they move opinion in advance of policy change?
How is opinion manufactured to support certain perspectives?