1. Population and Demographics
Chapter 2 Introduction
Population and Demographics

2. Overpopulation How would you define overpopulation?
How do geographers define overpopulation?
When an area’s population exceeds the capacity of the environment to support it at an acceptable standard of living.
What are the variables in this definition?

3. 100 Most Populated Cities in the World

4. Why Study Population? **This slide is from the late 1990’s**
Already, more than half the world's population-- over 2.7 billion people--live within 60 miles (100 km) of a coastline.
Rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries, will lead to more coastal megacities--cities with 10 million or more people.
As coastal zones become more densely populated, coastal water quality will suffer, wildlife will be displaced, and shorelines will erode.
By 2000, 13 out of 15 of the world's largest cities will lie on or near coasts.

5. Current World Statistics
Rank
City
Population
Country 1
Shanghai
17,836,133[5]
China 2
Istanbul
13,255,685[7]
Turkey 3
Karachi
12,991,000[5]
Pakistan 4
Mumbai
12,478,447[8]
India 5
Beijing
11,716,000[5] 6
Moscow
11,551,930[10]
Russia 7
São Paulo
11,316,149[12]
Brazil 8
Guangzhou
11,070,654[5] 9
Delhi
11,007,835[8] 10
Seoul
10,575,447[13]
South Korea

6. Study of Population Important for three reasons –
More people alive at this time than at any other, over 7 billion
World population increasing at a faster rate during the second half of the twentieth century than ever before
Virtually all population growth is concentrated in less developed countries

7. Where is the World’s Population Distributed?
Chapter 2 Key Issue 1
Where is the World’s Population Distributed?

8. World Population Cartogram

9. Population Density VS. Climate
Common Characteristics
Low-lying
Fertile Soil
Temperate Climate
Northern Hemisphere

10. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Population concentrations
Two-thirds of the world’s population are in four regions:
East Asia
South Asia
Europe
Southeast Asia

11. Four Population Clusters
East Asia
1/5 of world’s population
River Valley’s
China vs. Japan
Concentrated not distributed
South Asia
India – ¾ of South Asia’s population
Rural
Southeast Asia
World’s fourth largest
Islands/coastal
Europe
Western, Eastern, Western Russia
1/9 world’s population
Well developed infrastructure
Urban

12. Population Distribution
Figure 2-2

13. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
The ecumene – regions of permanent settlement
Has expanded with increased technology and possibilism
Sparsely populated regions
People generally avoid:
Dry lands
Wet lands
Cold lands
High lands

14. Arithmetic Density of the World

15. Physiological Density of the World
Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.

16. Agricultural Density of the World

17. Where has the world’s population increased?
Chapter 2 Key Issue 2
Where has the world’s population increased?

18. Population- The shape of things to come.
Just 1,000 years ago beings were an insignificant species on this planet: only a quarter of a billion people, barely into the Iron Age, spread thinly across the earth and subject to nature's whims. Today that species has increased more than fifteen-fold and its power has increased to immense proportions. The human race has made the world produce more, has covered it with cities, is felling its forests and consuming its oil. From being at Nature's mercy we now have the power to determine our own futures. But this new power brings with it tremendous and unprecedented responsibilities. It is now up to us to shape our own future.
Think Geographically – Think Population
List three positive ways the world has changed in the last 1, years
List three problems associated with this change
List three ways you think the world will change in the next 100 years

19. Where has the world’s population increased?
Natural Increase
Fertility
Mortality

20.                                                                                                                                             
Natural Increase
Natural Increase Rate (NIR) - is the percentage of growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates,
Crude Birth Rate – Total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people. A crude birth rate of 20, means that 20 babies are born for every 1,000 people.
Crude Death Rate – Total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people.
NIR is computed by subtracting CBR from CDR, after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1,000 to percentages (per 100).
If CBR is 20, and CDR is 5, then the NIR is 15 per 1,000, or 1.5 percent.

21. Current Population Growth Rate

22. Natural Increase Vs. Annual Increase
Doubling Time – The number of years needed to double a population.
Percentages – Small is large
Now – 1.25 x 6.4 billion = 80 million
Drop – 1.0 x 6.4 billion = 64 million
Increase – 2.0 x 6.4 billion = 128 million

23. Developed VS. Developing
Why is population growth lower in developed countries? Why is it higher in less developed countries?

24. Crude Birth Rate
The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1,000 population per year. The highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.

25. Mortality Rate
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) – The annual number of deaths of infants under one year of age, compared with total live births. As is the case with CBR and CDR, it is based per 1,000.

26. Life Expectancy – The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

27. Chapter 2 Key Issue 3
Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries?

28. Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition – The process of change in a society’s population from a condition of high crude birth and death rates and low
The Demographic Transition. Low growth Low growth 3. Moderate growth
2. High growth 4. Low growthModerate growth
2. High growth 4. Low growth

29. Demographic Transition

30. Stage One - 1
In stage one, a preindustrial society, death rates and birth rates are both high and fluctuate rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population.
Hunting & Gathering Societies
unstable food sources
high death, high birth, low population
no countries in stage 1 in today’s world

31. Stage Two - 2
In stage two, that of a developing country, the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduce disease. These changes usually come about due to improvements in farming techniques, access to technology, basic healthcare, and education. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.
Agricultural Societies
very basic farming - no tech.
more stable food sources
sharp increase in population
death rate declines sharply
most African countries in stage 2

32. Stage Three - 3
In stage three birth rates fall due to access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off.
Industrial societies
mechanized farming
children don’t work, more women work - TFR goes down
Birth Rate drops Why?
Death Rate already low keeps falling Why?

33. Stage Four - 4
During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Italy, Spain and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. The large group born during stage two ages and creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries.
Tertiary / Service-Based Societies
Birth & Death rates almost equal
zero population growth
When TFR falls below 2, what happens?
fewer children - Why?
economic liability
greater control over fertility - contraceptives

34. The Demographic Transition in England
Now Stage 4
Historically
Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750
Stage 2 – High growth
Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s
Stage 4 – Early 1970’s-present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.

35. Why Might the world face an overpopulation problem?
Chapter 2 Key Issue 4
Why Might the world face an overpopulation problem?

36. Why does global population growth matter?
Global starvation
War
Disease
Lower quality of life
Lowered life expectancy

37. Malthus
Thomas Malthus ( ) – English economist who first argued that the world’s rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of food supplies. His view remains influential today.
An Essay on the Principle of Population
Population increases geometrically
Food supply increases arithmetically
Relationship between people and food
Today = 1 person, 1 unit of food
In 25 years = 2 persons, 2 units of food
In 50 years = 4 persons, 3 units of food
In 75 years = 8 persons, 4 units of food
In 100 years = 16 persons, 5 units of food

38. Beyond Malthus Neo-Malthusians Malthus’s Critics
Argue that two characteristics of recent population growth make Malthus’s thesis more frightening in today’s world.
1. Rapid population growth in poor countries caused by the transfer of medical technology, without the transfer of wealth or resources.
2. World population growth is outstripping total resources, not just food production.
Malthus’s Critics
Criticism aimed at both the population growth and resource depletion elements of the theory -
Resources – Fixed or not fixed/ possibilism
Population growth could stimulate production
Distribution could be better handled
More people = more brain power
More people = more power

39. Declining Birth Rates Malthus Theory and Reality
Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the second half of the twentieth century.
Better growing techniques
Higher-yielding seeds
Cultivation of more land/more arable land

40. Reasons for Declining Birth Rates
Natural Increase Rate (NIR) can decline for only two reasons –
Lower birth rates
Higher death rates
Reasons for declining birth rates
Economic development
Distribution of contraceptives

41. World Health Threats
Natural Increase Rate – Lower birth rates or higher death rates?
Epidemiology – The branch of medical science concerned with incidence, distribution, and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people.
Epidemiologic Transition – Focuses on distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition.
Originally formulated by Abdel Omran in 1971

42. Epidemiologic Transition Stages 1 and 2
Stage 1/Black Plague – The stage of pestilence and famine
Stage 2/Cholera – The stage of receding pandemics
Pandemic – A disease that occurs over a wide geographical area, and affects a very high proportion of the population.

43. Epidemiologic Transition Stages 3 and 4
Stage 3 – The stage of degenerative and human-created diseases
Decline of infectious diseases
Heart disease
Cancer
Stage 4 – The stage of delayed degenerative diseases
Medical advances

44. Epidemiologic Transition Stage 5
Stage 5 – The stage of the reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases
3 reasons of explanation
Evolution
Poverty
Improved Travel