2. Nigeria’s Economic Outlook Getting out of the Recession: Cycles, Policies, and Economic Policy Lags Ayo Teriba CEO, Economic Associates Author page:

3. Overview: Nigeria’s Windows of Opportunity
Think Global! Especially in fashioning government policies. Reconnect to global streams.
Open the country, the states, and the sectors for massive inflows of foreign investment
Country: Fiscal and Financial spaces, as well as infrastructure, with government as facilitator
Make routine arrangements for recognizing and smoothening cyclical swings
Recognition, decision, action, impact lags relating to shocks
Smoothening shocks before they inflict recession, devaluation, and inflation
Make routine arrangements for identifying and fixing economic misalignments
Identifying fiscal, financial, sectoral, state, and regional economic misalignments
Fixing them before they fuel socio-political restiveness

4. Twin Global Gluts: Real and Financial
World Economy: What are the main threats and opportunities for Nigeria?
Twin Global Gluts: Real and Financial
National Impact-Points
Threats and Opportunities

5. Nigerian Economy: Where is the Nigerian economy headed?
Recent Swings in Domestic Economic Cycles
Growth: Paths of production, demand, and net exports
Liquidity: Net issuance of money, bonds, and equity
Prices: Separating the ‘noise’ from the ‘news’.
Recent Shifts Domestic Economic Trends
Sectors: Where are the production and expenditure sectors headed?
Fisc: Fiscal shifts across Federal, States, and Local Government
States: Where in Nigeria?

6. Government Policies: Where is the government headed
Government Policies: Where is the government headed? What differences can policies make?
Shock-responsiveness: recognizing cyclical shocks and shortening policy lags
Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Identifying cyclical turning points and initiating countercyclical responses
Shortening recognition, decision, and action lags as new shocks emerge
Shift-responsiveness: identifying and fixing structural shifts
Foreign Investment Policies
Identifying structural break-points and initiating structural reforms
Strengthening policy insights, foresight and oversight to spot trend shifts early

7. Getting out of the Recession: Cycles, Policies, and Economic Policy Lags
Cyclical Swings
Countercyclical Policy Responses
Economic Policy Lags
Locating NERGP and FMITI Strategic Plan

8. Cycles
Oil Price
External Reserves
Recession
Devaluation

9. Realities 9

10. Macro Trajectories: Trends, Cycles, and Shocks 10

12. Realities 12

13. Realities 13

14. Inflation and Exchange Rates: Separating the ‘news’ from the ‘noise’: How informative are recent price movements?
Exchange Rates: devaluation, appreciation, rate divergence, and the premia
Dealing with foreign exchange supply shortfalls
Transactions-based versus Portfolio-based Strategies
Using the premia as a measure of supply shortfall
Exchange rate targets versus foreign reserve thresholds
Inflation: discordant tunes from month-on-month and year-on-year rates
Cost-Push versus Demand-Pull
Transitory versus Persistent Inflation
Getting round base-effects
Annualizing quarter-to-date developments

15. Realities 15

22. Policies Budget 2017: Revenue and Debt
Financial Policy: Exchange Rate, Domestic and External Demand Restrictions
Forex Scarcity: Exports, Remittances and FDI
Sectoral Priorities: Big Sectors vs. Big Push

26. Historical Policy decisions: Why has Nigeria’s MPC more often tightened than eased policy?
Green is for easing (only five in the last 10 years, but just once in the last six years for the policy rate, and just twice in the last six years for the CRR), Red is for tightening (as much as fourteen in the last ten years, ten times in the last six years for the policy rate, and ten times in the last six years for the CRR). The table includes only meetings in which a tightening or easing decisions were taken on either the policy rate or CRR or both, that is, meeting in which all policy levers were unaltered were excluded from this table.
2007
Jun-07
reduced MPR from 10.0 % to 8.0 %)
Oct-07
raised MPR from 8.0 % to 9.0 %)
Dec-07
raised MPR from 9.0 % to 9.5 %)
2008
Apr-08
raised MRR from 9.5% to 10%
Jun-08
raised from 10% to 10.25
Sep-08
reduced from 10.25% to 9.75%
2009
Apr-09
Reduced from 9.75% to 8%
Jul-09
Reduced from 8% to 6%
2010
Sep-10
raised from 6% to 6.25%
2011
Jan-11
raised from 6.25% to 6.5%
raised from 1% to 2%
Mar-11
raised from 6.5% to 7.5%
2% to 4%
May-11 8 4%
Jul-11
8.75
Sep-11
9.25
Oct-11
12% 8%
2012
Jul-12
2013
Jul-13
50%
Sep-13
75%
Nov-13
15%
2014
Nov-14
13%
20%
2015
May-15
31%
Jul-15
25%
Sep-15
Nov-15
11%
2016
Mar-16
22.50%
Jul-16
14%

30. Realities 30

31. Immediate Choices
Shift from Reliance on Exports Income to Foreign Investment Inflows
Shift from Reliance on Capital Budget to Foreign Investment
Shift from Emphasis on Big Sectors to Emphasis on Infrastructure

32. Economic Policy Lags The Lags Recognition Lag Decision Lag Action Lag
Impact Lag

33. Locating the Plans
NERGP
FMITI’s Strategic Plan

34. About EA
EA provides ongoing assessment of the outlook of the Nigerian economy. We clarify the trends and outlook of risks and opportunities in the Nigerian economy, given the realities of the international economic situation, and the economic policy directions of the government. Our products and services currently include:
Economic Outlook monthly summaries of the main drivers of Nigerian economic outlook.
Briefing for decision-makers on the drivers of the economic outlook.
Training on selected themes on the Nigerian economy.
Regular access to EA staff to discuss new ideas as they emerge.
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