1. Overview of the Rapid Assessment protocol (Costing tool)
Valerie Schmitt, Social Security Specialist, ILO DWT Bangkok
Assessment National Dialogue No2
Bangkok, 30 Nov 2011

2. Assessment matrix including list of recommendations
Assessment matrix completed in National Dialogue No1
Increase benefits or population covered, introduce new benefits
On the management of existing schemes, review targeting & registration mechanisms, review the law, conduct research, conduct a tax reform… OK
RAP Protocol
Scenarios and assumptions validated in National Dialogue No2

3. From recommendations to scenarios
The recommendation: “Design and implement cash transfers for all children aged 0-6”
I translate this into two scenarios:
Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector
Cash transfer for all children 0-6 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector

4. Assumptions to calculate the cost of the scenario TODAY
Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector
Number of children 0-3 years old
2,393,000 (2010)
Date of completion of full coverage
2020
Take up rate (cumulative percentage of children covered)
60%...90%...100%
Level of the child allowance (FS)
400 / month  4800 / year
Administration costs 5%
 TOTAL
60% * 2,393,000 * 4800 * 1.05

5. Assumptions to calculate the cost of the scenario TODAY
Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector
 TOTAL
60% * 2,393,000 * 4800 * 1.05 = 7,236,432,000 THB
 In percentage of GDP
 In percentage of Government Expenditure

6. Data needed to calculate the cost in the future
Scenario 1: Cash transfer for all children 0-3 years old at the level of the child allowance in place for formal sector
The number of children will change
Need for Demographic projections
Level of the child allowance (FS) will change with inflation
Need for inflation forecasts
Percentage of GDP and Government Expenditure
Need for GDP and Government Expenditures forecasts

7. 1- Data collection
2- Transformation of the recommendations into scenarios
Calculation of the cost in 2011 of each scenario,
Projection over the years of this cost, in THB, % Govt expenditure and % GDP

8. NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020
HISTORICAL DATA

9. NATIONAL PROJECTIONS 2011-2020
Male/Female participation rates * Population per age group  Economically active population
NATIONAL PROJECTIONS
HISTORICAL DATA

10. Poverty line, minimum wage
NATIONAL PROJECTIONS
HISTORICAL DATA
Poverty line, minimum wage
GDP at current price
Inflation
GDP: The value of a country's overall output of goods and services (typically during one fiscal year) at market prices, excluding net income from abroad.

11. 
WE NEED THE DATA!!!

12. By 2020, the first scenario would cost 0.07 % of GDP

13. National dialogue # 2 Objectives:
Validate the assumptions used for the RAP protocol
Share the result of the costing
Confirm the scenarios or propose new scenarios and cost them
Train participants for the utilization of the costing tool

14. Take away message
The RAP gives a first idea of “how much it would cost” to complete the SPF
It tells us whether this is affordable or not
It helps to decide whether or not we should implement the proposed scheme
It can be completed with poverty impact analysis, and analysis of the impact on employment of some of the measures for working age population
It needs to be completed by comprehensive feasibility studies