1. Budget Reform in OECD and Asian Countries
OECD / Korea Policy Center Workshop
Seoul, 13 May 2016
Santiago Gonzales
Head of Budgeting and Public Expenditures
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

2. Budgeting Reform Trends
Fiscal rules
Calculating economic assumptions
Medium-term expenditure frameworks
Top-down budgeting techniques
Greater managerial flexibility
Performance and results
Accrual budgeting?
Role of the Legislature

3. Fiscal Rules Foster credibility in government’s fiscal stewardship
Fiscal rules require political commitment
Expenditure rules are superior to surplus/deficit rules
Expenditure rules should be “flexible” for some types of expenditure, i.e. the automatic stabilizers
Cyclically-based fiscal rules are not practical and difficult to understand
Beware: Tax expenditures

4. Fiscal rules: Adoption
87% of the Asian countries have adopted fiscal rules (except Philippines, Timor-Leste)
Average number of fiscal rules: Asia 2.0, OECD 3.6

5. Fiscal rules : Types of rules
Budget balance rules, Debt rules and Expenditure rules are similarly used in Asia

6. Calculating Economic Assumptions
By far, the most significant fiscal risk
Full disclosure
Sensitivity analysis
Comparison with private forecasters
Use of Independent boards / agencies
Prudency Factors
Systematic and explicit downward revisions

7. Calculating Economic Assumptions: Actors responsible for Estimates
The ratio of CBA being responsible for macroeconomic estimates is high in Asia

8. Medium-term expenditure frameworks
Reconciles fiscal rule and baseline projections of revenues and expenditures
Reinforces credibility in government’s fiscal stewardship
Lengthens the time frame of budgeting (3+ years)
Foundation for the annual budget process: First year beyond the budget becomes the budget for that year if no policy changes
Issues
Often not well integrated with annual budget process
Lapsing programs
Dynamic Scoring

9. MTEF in Place
Many Asia report having as MTEF in place, but lower than OECD (Asia 73%, OECD 88%)
MTEF Not in place: Bhutan, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Timor-Leste (Cambodia, Lao under developing stage)

10. Top-Down Budgeting Techniques
Based on medium-term expenditure framework
Lump sum allocations per ministry
Some ring-fencing
Benefits
Budget reflects political prioritization
Reduces game-playing
Internal reallocations; less “auto” increases
Information asymmetry
“Ownership” of actions

11. Top-down Techniques: Ceilings on the line ministries
Overall expenditure of line ministry is more used and program (sector) is less used in Asia

12. Top-down Techniques : Resolution of disputes
Allocation disputes are resolved by the cabinet only 27% in Asia compared with 39% in OECD

13. Greater Managerial Flexibility
“Deregulation” in the Public Sector
Merging line-items in budgets
Reforming central management controls
Ministries and agencies organizational model
Heads of ministry/agency in best position
to manage resources effectively & efficiently
Strong pre-conditions required
Robust system of internal controls and audit

14. Greater Managerial Flexibility: Carry-over, Reallocation
The central input controls are more strict in Asia in terms of several aspects of budget execution

15. Performance and Results
Quid Pro Quo for Increased Managerial Flexibility
New form of accountability, but generally lagging
Technical Issues
Outcomes versus outputs
Definition and measurement
Lack of interest by managers
Simply another layer of central controls
Lack of interest by elected officials
Cash appropriations dominate politics
Information overload

16. Performance and Results

17. Accrual Budgeting? NO! Very few countries have adopted it Problems
Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom
All Westminster countries with limited role of the legislature
“If we knew then what we know now, we would not have implemented accrual budgeting.”
Problems
Very complex and technical
Potential benefits do not outweigh the significant costs
Ministers and Members of Parliament reject it as too theoretical
Civil servants reject it as it may invite possible abuse
“Expenditures should be recorded when the political decision to spend money is taken.”

18. Role of the Legislature
General characteristics
Most divergent aspect of budgeting from one country to another
Worldwide trend for a greater role
Promoting fiscal discipline in Legislatures
Pre-Budget Statement, focusing on aggregates and the impact on economic performance
Two (Three) step approval process, approving aggregate limits before considering (Sectoral) and individual appropriations
Committee system – role of budget committee and sectoral committees
Analytical resource of the legislature

19. Role of the Legislature
Legislative amendment power is strong and more Independent Fiscal Institutions are set in OECD

20. Conclusion Similar Reforms Across Countries
But from different starting points...
...And at different speeds
...And with different emphasis

21. THANK YOU !