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2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE HARVEY AUG. 17, 24-??

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Presentation on theme: "2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE HARVEY AUG. 17, 24-??"— Presentation transcript:

1 2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE HARVEY AUG. 17, 24-??
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: August 25, 2017 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -  PPT original -

2 EACH YEAR, 15-30 STORMS OCCUR; SOME CAUSING DISASTERS

3 THE 2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON

4 2017: THE FIRST SIX NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS
ARLENE – JUNE 9; DIED QUICKLY BRET – JUNE 13; RAIN CINDY – JUNE 19-23; LOTS OF RAIN DON – July 17, DIED IN ATLANTIC EMILY – July 17, DIED IN CARIBBEN FRANKLIN—August 6; a RAINMAKER in NW Caribbean and Yucatan

5 2017: ADDITIONAL NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS
GERT – AUG 13; DIED IN ATLANTIC HARVEY – AUG. 17, Reformed Aug 23; A HUGE RAINMAKER IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AFTER AUG, LANDFALL AS CAT 3 HURRICANE IRMA – JOSE –

6

7 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY: AUGUST 17, 24--?
HARVEY MAY BECOME THE STORM OF 2017 (AND POSSIBLY THE DECADE) AFTER LANDFALL IN TEXAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT (AUG. 25) OR SATURDAY (AUG. 26) MORNING!

8 CONTINUOUS TRACKING

9 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

10 NOTE: HARVEY MAY MAKE LANDFALL TWICE: ONCE IN TEXAS AND ONCE IN LOUISIANA

11 HURRICANE HARVEY POISED TO HIT TEXAS
FORMING FIRST ON AUGUST 17, DISSIPATING, THEN REFORMING AGAIN ON AUGUST 23, HARVEY BECAME A HURRICANE ON AUG. 24 AND COULD REACH CAT 3 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN TEXAS.

12 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST: AUGUST 24

13 HURRICANE HARVEY COULD CAUSE A 12 FOOT SURGE
HARVEY MAY CAUSE A DANGEROUS 12 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COAST.

14 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST: AUGUST 24

15 HURRICANE HARVEY WILL BE A HUGE RAIN MAKER
HARVEY IS EXPETED TO STALL AFTER LANDFALL AND GENERATE UP TO CM (16-24 inches) OF RAIN IN HOUSTON AND OTHER LOCALES. EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS LIKELY, POSSIBLY LEAVING SOME COMMUNITIES UNDER WATER FOR DAYS

16 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST: AUGUST 24

17 FORECAST OF HARVEY’S IMPACTS INTO AUGUST 30th

18 OTHER LOCATIONS WILL ALSO RECEIVE RAIN

19 PREPARATION

20 BOARDING WINDOWS TO PROTECT AGAINST WIND

21 GASSING UP FOR EVACUATION

22 MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION

23 PREPARTION

24 FOOD AND WATER: SHELVES ARE NOW BARE

25 THE NEXT STORM IS ALREADY ON DECK

26 ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK
HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION

27 HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM
Entire communities; People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

28 A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A WINDSTORM INTERACT WITH UNPREPARED COMMUNITIES

29 HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] DEBRIS STORM SURGE/FLOODS HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION

30 WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS HURRICANES STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

31 A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

32 Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

33 THE REASONS ARE . . . When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.

34 THE REASONS ARE . . . The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

35 THE REASONS ARE . . . The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

36 THE REASONS ARE . . . The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

37 THE REASONS ARE . . . The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

38 GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

39 TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, FORECASTING, WARNING, AND DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE VITAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

40 LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WIND-STORMS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY SEVERE WIND-STORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

41 LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WIND-STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

42 LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

43 STRATEGIC COLLABORATION IS IMPORTANT

44 STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

45 STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS

46 STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY

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