1. Homes in Herts
Market Overview
24th April 2017

2. Source: Savills using ONS

3. Source: Savills using ONS

4. Mainstream house price forecasts
5 years

5. New supply increasing but more homes still needed
Source: DCLG, Glenigan, Savills
Need
New planning consents
Gov. target (1m by 2020)
EPCs for new dwellings
Net additional dwellings

6. More positive sentiment after the summer dip
Source: Savills

7. Number of bids per site picking up again
Source: Savills survey of agents

8. Development land values back to growth
Source: Savills
Source: Savills
Annual change
-10.2%
1.8%
3.6%

9. A return to more normal conditions in the land market
More positive sentiment
ALTHOUGH
More positive sentiment
Improved number of bids
Continued growth in land values
Transaction s taking longer
More selective about sites

10. Variation in supply
Source: DCLG, net additional dwellings year to March 2016 vs 2015 stock
Wide variation in delivery rates across the country
Highest in Central England
Can you spot the London Green Belt?

11. 3 month on 3 month house price growth
Source: ONS

12. Recovery since credit-crunch
House prices growth across Hertfordshire has exceeded the average for the East of England since the 2008 downturn.
All areas are currently above their 07/08 peak.
Transactions remain c.30% below peak in line with the East of England and England and Wales.
Source: HM Land Registry

13. House prices
Source: HM Land Registry, OS OpenData

14. House prices
Hertsmere has the highest detached values across the county. St Albans however has the highest prices for other property types.
All of Hertfordshire’s local authorities have higher average values than the East of England as a whole.
Source: HM Land Registry

15. Affordability of new-build ownership options
If we assume pricing for a typical new build family (three bedroom) home in the area starts at around £470,000, we can compare the costs of purchasing such a property through different schemes.
Assumptions: average FTB deposit is 17%*, 25 year mortgage term, 2.75% rent on unsold shared ownership equity.
The results show that shared ownership deposit requirements are lower than other routes to home ownership. However, for higher equity shares, the monthly costs of shared ownership are higher; for lower equity shares, the monthly cost is likely to be lower than Starter Homes and is similar to outright purchase, but is still more expensive than Help to Buy.
Source: Savills Research, *according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, ** deposit requirements and mtg rates estimated as scheme details not finalised

16. Thank you
Helen Collins