1. The current TSSM Presentation for TSSM Stakeholders and FHWA
07 December 2016
George List, NC State
David Hale, Leidos
Brandon Nevers, Kittelson
Rob Bertini, USF

2. Presentation Overview
Brief history of the TSSM to date
Context into which the TSSM fits
Current structure and materials
Objectives of the current contract
Project deliverables and schedule
Comments and feedback:
Materials you would like to submit:

3. Brief History
1963: TRB Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics
1964: HRB Special Report 79 Introduction to Traffic Flow Theory
1975: TRB Special Report 165 Traffic Flow Theory: A Monograph
2001: Traffic Flow Theory Monograph
2005: Joint Simulation Subcommittee (SimSub) Established
2008: Woods Hole - Greenshields Symposium
2010: Annecy - Does Traffic Data Support Traffic Models?
2012: Fort Lauderdale – Joint Summer Meeting with HCQS Committee
2014: Portland - TFTC 50th Anniversary Symposium
2015: TRB System Simulation Task Force Established
TSSM

4. Original Motivation Demand for simulation applications on the rise
Transportation networks becoming more complex and multimodal (highway, rail, transit, bicycle, pedestrian)
Need to improve the effectiveness of simulation applications
Benefits to having a single, unified, collaborative resource
Demand is on the Rise: Simulation is being relied upon more than ever to support decision making, particularly given the increasing emphasis on performance management and reliability.
Increasing Complexity: Multimodal networks and advances in vehicle and systems technology, such as ATDM, create a more complex environment for simulation modeling.
Improve Effectiveness: Simulation modeling in many cases is perceived as being too expensive and time consuming. There remains a need for guidance on when and how simulation should be applied to be most effective.
Desire for a Single, Unified, Collaborative Source: There are a number of diverse resources on simulation. A single , centralized source would improve the defensibility and transparency of practices, similar to the HCM, HSM, Roundabout Guide, etc.

5. Previous Project Objectives and Outcomes
Assess the state of the art and state of the practice
Create a framework for the evaluation of transportation systems using simulation
Create a draft chapter
Request funds from the NCHRP program and other funding sources for the development of the full manual
Ultimate Goal of the Manual
Address several topics including model resolution, integration, model inputs, calibration, validation post processing, and interpretation
Maintain flexibility to accommodate future advances
Ensure consistency, transparency and defensibility in use of simulation
FHWA Oversight
John Halkias (Task Monitor)
Joe Bared
James Colyar
David Petrucci
James Sturrock
Chung Tran
Kittelson & Associates Team
Brandon Nevers (Principal Investigator)
George List, North Carolina State University
Robert L. Bertini, California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo

6. Current Project Objectives and Outcome
Objective of this project
Develop the first edition of the TSSM for the evaluation of transportation systems that delivers to the users the concepts, guidelines, and procedures of simulation modeling.
Ultimate goal of the manual
Address topics such as model resolution, integration, model inputs, calibration, validation post processing, and interpretation
Maintain flexibility to accommodate future advances
Ensure consistency, transparency and defensibility in use of simulation

7. First of Six Webinars Attended by: Topical Focus
Traffic Analysis and Simulation Pooled Fund members
Task Force on System Simulation (AHB80T) formed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB)
Other invited simulation experts
Topical Focus
1st: Existing outline and draft chapters
2nd: State-of-the-practice review
3rd: Proposed TSSM annotated outline
4th: Draft critical needs chapters
5th: Draft intermediate needs chapters
6th: Possible case studies for Volume V

8. Context – National Guidelines
Please let us know about any relevant research or guides not shown.
Context – National Guidelines
U.S. Traffic Analysis Tools ops.fhwa.dot.gov/trafficanalysistools
U.S. NCHRP 3-85 Alternative Tools in Capacity Analysis
Discussions in the Highway Capacity Manual (Volumes 1-4)
MULTITUDE Traffic Simulation: Case for Guidelines
UK: Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB), Transportation Analysis Guidance (WebTag), Highways Agency Guidelines, TfL Traffic Modelling Guidelines
Australia: Use and Application of Microsimulation Traffic Models, Guidelines for Selecting Techniques for Modeling Network Operations, Microsimulation Technical Notes, New South Wales Traffic Modeling Guidelines
Germany: Notes on Microscopic Traffic Flow Simulation (FGSV)
Canada: Best Practices for Technical Delivery of Long-Term Planning Studies
New Zealand: Economic Evaluation Manual
Japan: Standard Verification Process for Traffic Flow Simulation Models

9. Context – State Guidelines
Florida DOT Traffic Analysis Handbook
Virginia DOT Traffic Ops and Safety Analysis Manual
Pennsylvania DOT Traffic Engineering Manual
Missouri DOT Microsimulation Modeling Guidelines
Not available online
Maryland DOT
SHA VISSIM Modeling Guidelines (not available online)
SHA VISSIM Model Review Checklist (not available online)
SHA Congestion Management Projects (not available online)
Nevada DOT CORSIM Modeling Guidelines
ODOT VISSIM Protocol
WSDOT VISSIM Protocol
CalTrans Guidelines for Applying Traffic Microsimulation Modeling Software

10. Meeting a Need (1) “There is a need for guidance”
Comments from the 2015 TRB Workshop
“There is a need for guidance”
“One challenge is to determine what is missing in current guidance documents”
“There is a need to develop use cases to drive development”
“It should be a living document under continual development; it should always be moving forward”
“It should help move the field toward educated users”
“It should allow users and reviewers to say a simulation is right or wrong”
“There is concern we are asking for something very strict that is not necessarily achievable with the data”
“The manual should be software agnostic”

11. Meeting a Need (2) “The manual should have an emphasis on education”
Comments from the 2015 TRB Workshop
“The manual should have an emphasis on education”
“The overarching gap is often a gap in user knowledge”
“DOTs should be able to show examples of good practice”
“We are moving toward a predictive analytic world … should the manual consider this alternate universe?”
“Should connected vehicles and communication modeling be in the scope?”

12. Meeting a Need (3) Calibration Model Resolution Simulation Reports
Top Priorities (from the PFS members)
Calibration
Appropriate types in various situations
Appropriate parameters and input ranges
Model Resolution
When to use meso-, macro-, and microscopic simulation
How to integrate meso-, macro-, and microscopic simulation
Simulation Reports
How to prepare simulation reports
How to standardize the outputs
Modeling Basics
What should the seeding time be?
How many runs are needed?
What should be the spatial and temporal limits

13. Meeting a Need (4)
More Priorities (from the PFS members)
Make it be application ready (e.g., 'step-by-step' processes)
List performance measures to evaluate operational impacts
Show how to validate data from private sector sources
Describe high-level questions that should be addressed (e.g., regional impact, safety, accessibility)
Ensure appropriate and sufficient data are collected
Determine when simulation is essential vs. desirable
Show how error-checking should be done
Indicate how to microsimulation can be integrated with regional models
Describe how to keep track of model variations, including scenario analyses

14. What the TSSM Should and Should Not Be
What it should be:
Multi-author document with consensus-based materials (HCM, HSM, TCQSM, etc.)
Description of simulation options (e.g., micro-, macro-, and meso) and use
Discussion about inputs, outputs, output expectations, number of simulations, control of random number sequences, etc.
Example simulations using open-source simple simulation models to illustrate concepts
Guide for users, developers, modelers, reviewers
Document that can be used as a reference for classes, tutorials, workshops, etc.
What it should not be:
Single author or single agency document
Proscriptive guide for doing simulation analyses (Volumes 2 and 3 of HCM)
Guide to commercial software selection
Source of comparisons of commercial simulation software packages

15. Current Structure – Process Focused
Volume I: Concepts – basic ideas related to simulation and its use in modelling transportation systems.
Volume II: Model Development – how to develop a model for use in a specific context including freeway, arterial, transit, and pedestrian subnetworks, the demand inputs, the technical details of the communication system, and the scenarios and their frequency of occurrence.
Volume III: Preparation For Use – how to check that the model is ready for use, including calibration, verification, validation, and other performance assurance testing strategies.
Volume IV: Results Development And Analysis - how to make model runs, track the results, analyze the outputs
Volume V: Supplementary Material – example case studies, additional guidance documents, and references to other material that is helpful in showing users how to develop, test, and employ simulation models.

16. Volume I – Basic Concepts
What simulation models are and how to use them.
Chapter 1: Introduction
What is computer simulation
Basic simulation ideas
Common models and model types
What is stochasticity and what it means
Techniques for creating models
Advanced modeling concepts
Chapter 2: When to Use Simulation
When, why, and how it adds value
How does it compare with other options
Questions to pose in deciding
Types of computer simulation models
Chapter 3: Model Building
The process of building the model
Scenarios
Verification and validation
Common pitfalls
Chapter 4: Special Features
Pedestrian movements
Transit activities
Safety assessments
Emissions analysis
Other

17. Volume II - Model Building
How to create different types of simulation models.
Chapter 5: Defining the Problem
Network topography and modes
Time periods (one or more)
Time granularity
Scenarios (one or more)
Performance metrics
Chapter 6: Selecting the Model Type
Understanding the options
Selecting the best option
Working with more than one type
Chapter 7: Creating the Model Files
What types of data are required
Supply side aspects
Demand side aspects
Communications aspects
Control aspects
Scenario-specific inputs
Instrumentation and data collection
Chapter 8: Defining the Scenarios
Identifying the scenarios
Creating scenario data
Ensuring completeness

18. Volume III – Verification and Validation
Making sure the model will correctly represent the system’s behavior.
Chapter 9: V&V Issues
What is the difference between calibration, verification and validation
Checking the model elements
Checking the model logic
Checking the model parameter values
Defining the assessment techniques
Chapter 10: Verification
Ensuring the model is complete
Finding model bugs and errors
Checking connectivity among elements
Ensuring that the model provides the desired assessment outputs
Chapter 11: Validation
Understanding how to validate
Checking for face validity
Checking input-output relationships
Creating and using test datasets
Assessing the accuracy
Checking scenarios
How to avoid common pitfalls
Chapter 12: Reporting the Findings
What should be reported
Presenting the findings

19. Volume IV – Doing the Analyses
How to do the simulation runs and analyze the results.
Chapter 13: Getting Started
Specifying the runs (e.g., duration, warm-up and cool-down periods)
Determining how many runs are needed
Specifying how the run results will be archived
Chapter 14: Baseline Analysis
Defining the baseline
Making sure the baseline supports future alternative analyses
Getting coherent results for all the scenarios of interest
Chapter 15: Alternatives Analysis
Defining each alternative
Tying the alternatives to the baseline
Documenting the changes made
Making incremental changes
Analyzing the differences, across scenarios and overall
Chapter 16: Checking Predictions
Making sure the model is consistent with the after conditions
Comparing model predictions with after data
Separating incremental effects to remove ambiguity

20. Volume V – Supplementary Material
How people have created models for specific, typical situations.
Chapter 18: Freeway System Models
Problem / setting description
How the model was built
Verification and validation
Results development and analysis
Chapter 19: Arterial Systems
Chapter 20: Freeway/Arterial Systems
Chapter 21: Multimodal Systems
Problem / setting description
How the model was built
Verification and validation
Results development and analysis
Chapter 22: Supplementary Material
Supply-side modeling
Demand-side modeling
Supply/demand interaction modeling
Telecommunication system modeling
Additional verification and validation tools and techniques
Other simulation design guides

21. Materials that Presently Exist
Polished version of Chapter 1
Annotated outline
State of the practice review
Drafts of Chapters 1-4
These can be downloaded from:

22. Issues to be Addressed Issues identified by the MULTITUDE Project
How to structure simulation project/calibration activity
What to use for model ‘warm up’ and ‘cooling down’ periods
How many runs to make and sensitivity analysis requirements
What calibration and validation definitions and methodologies to use
Other Issues
How to do safety assessments
Environmental concerns (e.g. emissions, energy consumption, noise)
Multimodal treatment: transit, pedestrian, bicycle
Modeling connected and automated vehicles
Selecting mesoscopic, macroscopic, and multi-scale models
Modeling evacuation and emergency response
Using new modeling techniques (e.g., agent based simulation)

23. More Challenges
Ensuring the TSSM is more than just a compilation of research and best practices
Making sure it provides definitive guidance where needed
Having it strike a balance between a heavily-prescriptive approach and an unbounded one
Ensuring it can evolve and is flexible enough to accommodate rapidly changing advances in technologies
Ensuring it uses a framework that is independent of software
Having it reflect the knowledge and expertise of all the committees, subcommittees, organizations, and other stakeholders that have an interest in simulation
3. The framework should be flexible enough to accommodate future advances in systems technology, such as ATDM, DMA Applications, ICM, as well as advances in modeling methods, input sources and data collection/processing methods.

24. Project Deliverables

25. Questions and Answers Thank You
Contacts
George List, NC State,
David Hale, Leidos,
Chris Melson, FHWA,
Link to submit other materials: go.ncsu.edu/tssmsubmit