1. MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 10
Climate Change Impacts: Present and Future
Dr. Eugene Cordero
Outline:
Fingerprints of climate change
Future impacts

2. Based on the reading, which year was the warmest on record
1985
1999
2001
2005
2006
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3. The fingerprints discussed in the article include
Ocean layer warming
Increases in CO2
Decreses in precipitation
Increases frequency of tropical cyclones
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4. Climate Change Impacts
What signals would we expect from a warmer world?
What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

5. Climate Change Impacts
What signals would we expect from a warmer world?
Higher average temperature
Higher maximum temperatures
Higher minimum temperatures
More precipitation
Higher sea level
What ‘evidence’ do we have for changes in the 20th century?

6. Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures
Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Arctic and Antarctic warming

7. Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
FINGERPRINTS: Direct manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures
Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding
Glaciers melting
Arctic and Antarctic warming
Increases in sea level

8. Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming.
Earlier spring arrival
Coral reef bleaching
Droughts and fires

9. Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
HARBINGERS: Events that foreshadow the types of impacts likely to become more frequent and widespread with continued warming.
Spreading disease (i.e. mosquito carrying)
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts and population changes
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
Droughts and fires

10. Impacts over the last 100 years

11. Indicators of Climate Change
Fingerprints of climate change
Indicators of Climate Change
That there is a link between CO2 and global temperatures is irrefutable as this diagram shows, but exact details of the link and all the possible feedback mechanisms are not clear.
The interaction of positive and negative feedback effects associated with the greenhouse effect is currently a critical issue for the scientific community.

12. Indicators of Climate Change
Fingerprints of climate change
Indicators of Climate Change
Stratosphere cooling
Troposphere warming
That there is a link between CO2 and global temperatures is irrefutable as this diagram shows, but exact details of the link and all the possible feedback mechanisms are not clear.
The interaction of positive and negative feedback effects associated with the greenhouse effect is currently a critical issue for the scientific community.
Ocean warming

13. Temperature trends Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km) Stratosphere (10 – 50 km)
Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be instrument error.
Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

14. Temperature trends Troposphere (0 - ~ 10km) Stratosphere (10 – 50 km)
Surface temperatures are warming – (Certain)
Middle troposphere is also warming (Very likely)
Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now that seemed to be due to instrument error.
Upper atmosphere is cooling (Certain)
Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

15. Fingerprints of climate change

16. Fingerprints of climate change
Increases in water vapor

17. Water vapor feedback Recall how the water vapor feedback works
Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2.
The importance of this feedback is still being investigated.

18. Water vapor feedback Recall how the water vapor feedback works
Increase in temp
Increase evaporation
Increase in water vapor in atmosphere
Water vapor is a greenhouse gas
Increase in greenhouse effect
Further warming (positive feedback)
Current models suggest that the water vapor feedback is responsible for about the same amount of warming as warming from increases in CO2.
The importance of this feedback is still being investigated.

19. Global mean surface temperatures have increased

21. The Land and Oceans have both warmed

23. Precipitation patterns have changed

24. Svalbard,
Norway (79N) `

25. Arctic

26. Sea Level rise
Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter –

27. Sea Level rise
Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people due to
sea level rise and heavy rainfall events
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter –
very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity

28. Recent Sea Level Changes

30. Sea Levels have risen

31. Branching coral
Brain coral

32. Increase in coral bleaching events: due to warmer ocean temperatures
Branching coral
Brain coral
Increase in coral bleaching events: due to warmer ocean temperatures

34. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts
Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely)
increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely)
Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
Heat stress on livestock
Extended range of pests and diseases
Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower
Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems
Point the regions where the warming will be greatest

35. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts
Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely)
Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely)
more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely)
increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely)
increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)
Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
Damage to crops
Heat stress on livestock
Extended range of pests and diseases
Loss of some crop/fruit
Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs
Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower
Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems
Point the regions where the warming will be greatest

36. Future impacts due to
climate change

38. More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

39. As a result of warming, plant species would be expected to migrate
North in the Southern Hemisphere
North in the Northern Hemisphere
South in the Northern Hemisphere
South in the Southern Hemisphere
To higher altitudes
To lower altitudes
1 and 6
2 and 5
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40. Where would you expect to see the strongest evidence of climate change?
Tropical latitudes
Midlatitude deserts
Midlatitude oceans
High latitudes
High altitude mountains
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41. If ice melt was to stop even though average temperatures continue to warm, how would sea level respond
Sea level would continue to rise
Sea level would reach an equilibrium
Sea level would decrease
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42. Impacts on water and agriculture
Water availability
Decrease in many water scarce regions
Increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions; reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics

43. Impacts on water and agriculture
Water availability
Increase in some in some water-scarce regions,
Decrease in many water scarce regions
Globally, fresh water become more scarce
Increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions; reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics
Overall impact is negative

44. Effect on human health Reduced winter mortality in
Increased incidence of heat stress mortality
Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics
such as malaria and

45. Effect on human health Reduced winter mortality in
mid- and high-latitudes
Increased incidence of heat stress mortality
Tropics and midlatitudes
Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics
such as malaria and
water-borne diseases such as cholera,

46. Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change
Impacts are worse –
large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors
Lower capacity to adapt
Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,

47. Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change
Impacts are worse –
already more flood and drought prone
large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors
Lower capacity to adapt
because of a lack of financial and technological capacity
Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,
Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries

48. Climate change and California
Average Temperature:
Winter -
Summer –
Coastal cities:
Human health:
Water resources:
Agriculture:

49. Report Issued in 2004
Sections include:

50. Report Issued in 2004
Sections include:
Climate projections
Sea levels
Extreme heat
Health impacts
Water resource
Agriculture and vegetation

55. Climate change and California
Average Temperature:
Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by 70-90% by 2090
Summer – warmer summers (5-15F by 2090)
Coastal cities: coastal erosion by sea level rise.
Human health: Urban air pollution/heat extremes impact most vulnerable
Water resources: Total water, but early runoff from Sierras costly to adapt.
Agriculture: Major challenge to various crops industries.

57. Weather-related economic damages have increased

58. Movie: Hot times in Alaska

59. Movie: Hot times in Alaska
Write a paragraph explaining why the Arctic is experiencing more rapid warming compared to the lower latitudes, and what impact this is having on the Guillemonts in this movie.

60. Fingerprints and Harbingers
Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
Sea level rise and coastal flooding
Glaciers melting
Arctic and Antarctic warming
Spreading disease
Earlier spring arrival
Plant and animal range shifts and population declines
Coral reef bleaching
Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
Droughts and fires

61. El Niño years
La Niña years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

63. Weather-related economic damages have increased

64. 2020s
2050s
2080s

65. The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
El Niño years
La Niña years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

66. Based on the reading, which year was the warmest on record
1985
1999
2001
2005
2006
0 of 250
:10

67. The fingerprints discussed in the article include
Ocean layer warming
Increases in CO2
Decreses in precipitation
Increases frequency of tropical cyclones 20
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