1. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting

2. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Discussion Topics: 2014 Fire Season (review)
Winter and Spring
Critical Fire Weather Patterns
Seasonal Outlook for the Fire Season

3. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting 2014 Fire Season Analysis and Verification:
The 2014 fire season saw an increase in fire activity.
There were bouts of monsoon moisture that produced available ignition due to the associated lightning.
But, most of the western U.S. was in a drought. Stressed vegetation areas ignited quickly with the lightning.
Fires then spread quickly with wind and topography as a driving force.

4. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Wildfire Acreage Burned last summer was record breaking in some areas of the west.
The “Carlton Complex” fires in eastern Washington consumed 367,199 acres a record.
California reported 5620 fires for 631,434 acres above the long term average.
Oregon also recorded an above average fire season

5. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Reasons for the increased wildfire acreage during the 2014 fire season:
Many areas, especially in the west continued to receive below average moisture throughout the spring and summer months.
Air temperature was well above average over much of the western U.S.

6. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
This graphic from the Western Region Climate Center shows how warm the entire west was last year.
World wide was the warmest year on record since records began.

7. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Now lets look at the water year.

8. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting WRCC 12 month SPI.
This shows which areas have an abundance of precipitation and which areas are in deficit.
Runs Jan 2014-Jan 2015;

9. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
This is the 4 month Average precipitation from October through January 2015.
Looks quite different from the previous slide. Why?

10. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
This percent of average precipitation graphic for Jan- Feb 8, shows an extreme water deficit over California and Nevada.
Above average over eastern WA. and the SW.

11. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Winter 2014-2015.
Snowpack from previous Precipitation data.

12. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
This is the Percent of average of mountain snowpack as for February 1st.
Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon are in the <50% category with an abundance of areas <25% of average snowpack.
The intermountain west is a little better but still many areas are in the %.
Northern California is also suffering a well below average snowpack.

13. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Latest West Wide SWE from SNOTEL sites around the western States.
There is not a lot of snow in the lower feet in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada Mountains. As this graphic shows.
Generally <20% of average SWE.

14. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
4 month SPI will show if there is improvement in the drought areas.
The Pac NW is about average, northern California, Nevada, Utah, parts of Colorado and Arizona remain below average going into the late winter and spring.

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This is the Winter Outlook, at least what is left of winter.
We still see the very pronounced warm air remaining over the west.

16. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Again this is the Winter outlook through February.
Some changes here as this model is hanging onto the better chance of an El Nino episode.
Drier in the Pac NW and wetter across the southern tier states.
As previous charts have shown us we are a little more moist in the Pac NW.

17. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Palmer Drought Index as of Feb 7.
Greater or above average precipitation for the Pac NW.
Still showing a deficit of precipitation for California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.

18. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
This graphic is the latest Modified Palmer Drought Index.
Shows California, Nevada, and part of SE Oregon remaining in severe to extreme drought.

19. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for February 10 still continues the Extreme to Exceptional Drought over California and parts of the South- west, also Pac NW.

20. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Again, nothing new here.
Drought persists over California, Nevada, eastern OR, and southern Idaho.
The Desert SW is showing improvement.

21. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting The latest ENSO SST loop.
Shows warmer SST’s (El Nino) signature over the east equatorial Pacific.
Not a strong signature.
Looks like a 50-60% chance.
Otherwise will remain a neutral phase.

22. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER patterns
2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER patterns

23. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Definition of a critical fire weather pattern.
Critical fire weather patterns are defined as weather patterns that encourage extreme fire behavior resulting in large and destructive wildland fires.

24. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Weather patterns to briefly discuss:
Breakdown of an upper level high pressure ridge.
Foehn/East Winds –Pac NW.
Foehn Wind Patterns – California.
Others to mention: Chinook Winds, Pacific dry cold fronts, Monsoons, dry thunderstorms.

25. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Breakdown of the upper ridge.
The intermountain upper level ridge is being flattened by a Pacific trough moving in from the west.
WX associated with this map type: Thunderstorms, gusty winds, dry cold fronts,

26. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Foehn Wind
North winds, Sundowner winds, Mono wind, Santa Ana winds and Chinook winds.
Higher pressure centered over the SW with lower pressure off the CA coast. Wind flows off shore.
Hot, dry, very windy.

27. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting EAST Wind:
Generally in the Pac NW in Washington and Oregon.
High pressure develops over eastern Washington/Oregon as a thermal trough is digging up the coast.
Stable air event, as strong wind w/ warming/drying air flow down the west slopes of the Cascade Mountains.

28. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting ELEMENTS that promote extreme fire behavior:
Low Relative Humidity: From 10-30% depending on fuel moisture.
Strong surface wind: increases ROS, down wind spotting, direction of fire spread.
Air mass instability: enhanced upward motion and vertical growth of the column.
Long term Drought: Effects fuels (both live and dead), availability of fuel.

29. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST USING SEASONAL LONG LEAD FORECAST (SLLO) CHARTS.
INTERPRETATION BY Gary Bennett - Meteorologist

30. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting This is the FMA temperature SLLO.
Above (A) average temperatures to continue over the SW and intermountain W.
Equal Chances (EC) over the rest of the NW, mid west and East.

31. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Precipitation SLLO for FMA.
All areas are EC due mainly in part to a transition to a weak El Nino.
Below (B) average anomaly over extreme SE part of the U.S.

32. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting AMJ SLLO Temperature graphic.
Above (A) average anomaly has now spread north and east across the U.S.
Rest of the U.S. is EC.
Alaska is also Above (A) average.

33. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Precipitation SLLO for AMJ.
An (A) Above average precipitation anomaly now shows up over the four corners area.
Looks like a monsoon moisture signature.
The rest of the U.S. is showing (EC) Equal Chances.

34. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting MJJ SLLO Temperature graphic.
The Above (A) average anomaly is still very present over much of the west, SW, and east.
Equal Chances (EC) continues over the Southern states.
Above (A) average remains over Alaska.

35. 2015 NWSA Annual Summary MJJ SLLO Precipitation graphic.
Above (A) average anomaly over the four corners area persists through this time period.
The rest of the U.S. is Equal Chances (EC) including Alaska.

36. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting JJA SLLO Temperature Graphic.
The Above (A) average temperature anomaly has strengthened across the western U.S. and Alaska.
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Regions remain (EC).
East coast is (A) Above average.

37. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting JJA SLLO Precipitation Chart.
(A) Above average precipitation anomaly persisting in the four corners area.
Equal Chances (EC) over all parts of the U. S and Alaska.

38. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting JAS Temperature SLLO.
Not a lot of change as the temperature anomaly is strong over the western U.S.
Alaska and the East Coast remains Above (A) average.
The central U.S. states are (EC) Equal Chances.

39. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting JAS Precipitation SLLO.
The (A) above average anomaly has been removed over the fore corners area.
The rest of the model shows Equal Chances (EC) over all of the U.S. and Alaska.

40. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting ASO Temperature SLLO. Not much change.
Still seeing Above (A) average temperature anomaly over the West, Intermountain West.
Equal Chances (EC) over the mid West.
Alaska and the east coast states are still Above (A).

41. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Again no changes to the Precipitation SLLO for ASO.
All areas are Equal Chances (EC).

42. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting SON Temperature SLLO.
Again we see the Above (A) average anomaly for Temperature remain over the western U.S.
Alaska is reducing the (A) Above average anomaly to the extreme northern part of the state.
Northeast and southeast are still Above (A) average.

43. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting SON Precipitation SLLO.
Again NO Changes as all areas are Equal Chances (EC).

44. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting OND Temperature SLLO.
The Above (A) average SLLO for Temperature has moved slightly east into the inter- mountain west and Northeast.
West Coast is Equal Chances (EC)

45. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting OND Precipitation SLLO.
Again the precipitation SLLO is showing Equal Chances (EC).
We are beginning to change over to winter time climatology.

46. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting Wintertime 2015-16.
(A) above average anomaly continues over the intermountain west.
All other areas are (EC).
The Precipitation SLLO charts still show EC over all areas of the U.S.

47. 2015 NWSA Annual Meeting
Are there any Questions or Comments?