1. Prescribed Fire Workshop
Nov 30 to Dec 2, 2004

2. Outline Data Flow National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS)
Data Quality/Standards
Portable Stations
Spot Weather
Critical Weather Patterns

3. Data Flow
How does that data from my station get out to me and the rest of the world?
Important to note that data gets out to the rest of the world….good or bad.

4. 24-Hour Data Delivery -Via Satellite
DOMSAT
Downlink by NIFC BLM
GOES
Future Path
Wallops,
Virginia
ASCADS
Automated Sorting,
Conversion and Distribution
System
WIMS
Weather Information
Management System
NWS
National Weather
Service
WRCC
Western Regional
Climate Center
If you’re not getting your weather data, start with the station and work your way along the path to see where the problem might be.
NIFC Web Site
It all starts at the station

5. NFDRS Forecast Available daily from NWS for your NFDRS stations.
Stations must meet NFDRS standards.
Data must be shared via GOES.
Request through GACC meteorologist.
Receiving NFDRS forecast depends on R being changed to O.

6. NFDRS Forecast (cont.)
O obs are swept by WIMS and distributed to NWS via the NWS Gateway in a collective.
NFDRS forecast issuance is based on the observation appearing on the collective.
If R → O by 1330, FWM is often available in WIMS by 1445 or 1500.

7. The Flow of Data WIMS NWS Gateway Observation Collective
Local owner edits 1300 observation. Changes R → O !!
NWS Gateway
Process can take as little as 30 minutes from O ob to Fcst indices.
Forecast Indices by 1500
NFDRS Forecast
Local NWS office

8. Quality Data Be sure maintenance is done.
Be sure maintenance is documented.
Be sure station meets standards.
Stations need to be maintained at a minimum once a year.

9. Standards
“Data from weather stations, which have not been maintained and documented, is of no value in operations or litigation” (Fontana 2004).

10. Weather Station Handbook PMS 426-2
“Blue Book”
Relative Humidity Tables
Anemometer Heights
Also mention the paragraph in there about the fuel bed.

11. Weather Station Standards PMS 426-3
And …WMO Guide Number 8: Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation

12. Why Do We Need Quality? We make decisions based on weather data.
We share weather data with the public.
We share weather data at briefing prior to burn.
We can use weather data during the burn.

13. Where Can I Get More Info?

14. RAWS Coordinator
Forest Service contact for Region 8 is Barry Garten

15. Portable Stations
Must be maintained if data used in decision making per Forest Service manual.
Voice alerts available.
Eventually more frequent transmissions.
Recommend buying Regionally and caching.
All weather stations including portables must meet NFDRS maintenance standards if using data in any decision making (Cramer Hazard Abatement Plan). Describe voice alerts and how they can help. The portables will eventually be allowed more frequent transmissions on GOES satellite so they are closer to “real time” data. The cost of maintenance is going though the roof. Use portables, but share them and be cost conscious.

16. Spot Weather Forecasts
Spot weather forecasts are available from most NWS office web sites.
Web based interface offers faster turn around.
Available (in most cases) to State Agencies as well as all Federal agencies.
Grid based output makes spot forecast more model dependent, → On site observations are vitally important.

17. Spot Weather Forecasts (cont.)
Have flexible parameters and time periods.
Internet based spot forecasts do provide for feedback.
Try to arrange for an NWS meteorologist to participate in your Rx burn. Schedule conflicts can provide “challenges”.

18. Spot Weather Forecasts

19. Spot Weather Forecasts

20. Spot Weather Forecasts

21. Spot Weather Forecasts

22. Spot Weather Forecasts

23. Weather Situation

24. Weather Situation, cont.

25. Weather Situation, cont.
3 month Standardized Precipitation Index through Oct 31, 2004

26. Weather Situation, cont.
Weekly Reference KBDI based on % Field Capacity

27. Days Since RainValid11/17/04

28. Days Since RainValid11/24/04

29. Days Since RainValid11/28/04

30. Critical Weather Patterns
Dry cold fronts.
Most common in Oct-Nov
Possible in Mar-Apr as well
North or Northwest winds (FL Panhandle) following passage of a cold front.
Beyond the fringes of a hurricane (strong subsidence).
Stagnant high pressure (summer time).

31. Critical Weather Patterns (cont.)
Down-Slope winds.
Long Term Drought, 30 days? 90 days? 120 days? 6 months? Year?
Days Since Rain: is it +1 sigma or greater?
RH nighttime recovery below 70%
Dry Lightning (fairly rare in the SE).

32. Forecast vs. Actual Fires

33. Questions?