1. Impact of Data Releases
Released: 12:00 GMT, 10th April, 2015
Next release: 12:00 GMT, 12th May, 2015
UK growth stable
The UK NCI™ is at for April, compared to for March. The April NCI™ is forecast at , showing that the current rate of economic growth in the UK is stable
The NCI™ for April is slightly lower than the figure predicted last month (123.89). Overall there have been few surprises in the dataflow, but the trade figures – both imports and exports – have surprised on the downside again. This is the 5th month in a row with a negative surprise for exports
NCI™ Release Dates
reference period
11/3/2015
10/4/2015
Mar-15
122.91
(A)
122.21
(U)
Apr-15
123.89
(F)
122.53
May-15 --
121.95
Notes: (A), ACTUAL, denotes the estimate of economic activity for the current month; (F), FORECAST, the forecast for next month; (U) UPDATED, denotes updates reflecting data released since the last NCI publication date. Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd
Impact of Data Releases
Release
Reference
Model
UK NCITM
Date
Name
Period
Unit
Value*
Expectation
March
April
10/4/2015
Industrial Production Excl Construction
Feb-15
MoM %
0.10
-0.11
0.09
9/4/2015
Imports
0.73
2.67
-0.34
-0.39
Exports
-2.37
1.02
-0.19
-0.22
8/4/2015
New Passenger Car Registrations
Mar-15
Units
492,774.00
5.42
0.01
7/4/2015
PMI: Services
Index
58.93
57.04
0.35
0.79
2/4/2015
PMI: Construction
57.82
59.87
-0.28
-0.66
1/4/2015
PMI: Manufacturing
54.41
54.21
0.04
31/3/2015
Consumer Confidence
4.00
1.21
0.03
30/3/2015
Economic Sentiment Indicator
111.10
111.94
-0.14
-0.38
26/3/2015
Distributive Trades: Retail Sales Volume
18.00
11.03
-0.01
Retail Sales
0.64
0.38
0.06
0.07
23/3/2015
Industrial Trends: Total Order Book
0.00
6.54
-0.37
-0.99
18/3/2015
Claimant Count Rate
Rate %
2.40
2.41
0.36
0.42
12/3/2015
Jan-15
-5.55
-0.26
-0.76
-0.78
-2.30
0.39
-0.10
Ratio of House Sales to Unsold Stock
34.50
33.28
0.02
-1.23
-1.91
Note: Released values are expressed in Model Units
Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd and Official Data Sources