1. Middle Class Fortunes in Western Europe and the U.S.
Rakesh Kochhar
Associate Director, Research
April 27, 2017

2. Global Population by Income (%)
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the World Bank PovcalNet database (Center for Global Development version available on the Harvard Dataverse Network) and the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS)
April 27, 2017

3. Share of Americans Who Are Middle Income is Falling
% of adults in each income tier
Note: Adults are assigned to income tiers based on their size-adjusted gross household income in the calendar year prior to the survey year. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements.
April 27, 2017

4. Change in Democratic share of the presidential vote, 2008 - 2016
Middle-class Areas Were More Likely to Move Away from Democrats in 2016
Change in Democratic share of the presidential vote,
Note: Middle-income adults live in households with incomes two-thirds to double the national median size-adjusted household income. Incomes in each metropolitan area are adjusted for the cost of living in the area relative to the national average cost of living.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2014 American Community Survey (IPUMS) data and county-level election returns.
April 27, 2017

5. The Middle Class: Why Does it Matter?
Emergence from poverty or near poverty
A more equal and economically mobile society
A boost for overall economic growth
Economic equality and opportunity = less political polarization?
April 27, 2017

6. concepts
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7. What is the Middle Class?
Self-identified: You are middle class if you say you are
Sociological: A construct based on values (political, cultural, etc.) and socioeconomic status (income, education, occupation, etc.)
Economic: Income, consumption or wealth
Middle income
April 27, 2017

8. Middle Income: Two Potential Economic Standards
Absolute: A fixed range of income
Same boundaries across countries and time
Unambiguous comparisons across countries and time
Simple way to measure progress
Relative: Income relative to a national norm
Middle-income boundaries are flexible and change over time
Better for analyses of single countries or for countries at similar stages of development
April 27, 2017

9. Income Distributions in India and the U. S
Income Distributions in India and the U.S. Share of population that lives on a given level of income or consumption
Incomes are daily per capita incomes in 2011, in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the World Bank PovcalNet database (Center for Global Development version available on the Harvard Dataverse Network) and the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS)
April 27, 2017

10. Income Distributions in Denmark and the U. S
Income Distributions in Denmark and the U.S. Share of population that lives on a given level of income
Disposable household incomes are for 2010, scaled to a household size of three,
and expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities
Median = $43,156
Median = $52,941
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS)
April 27, 2017

11. What Americans Think is Needed for a Middle-class Lifestyle Depends on Their Income
Question: Just your best guess: How much does a family of four need to have in total annual income to lead a middle-class lifestyle in your area?
Respondent’s Family Income
Note: Based on respondents who answered the question (N = 2,005 adults)
Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted from Jan. 24 through Feb. 19, 2008
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12. METHODOLOGY
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13. Methodology: Data, Countries, Etc.
Coverage: 11 countries from Western Europe and the U.S.; selection based on availability of data for around 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2013
Data: Cross-national Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS)
Income: Adjusted for household size; scaled to three-person household; expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities
Projections: For some countries, the 1991 income estimates are projections from following survey years: Denmark , France , Germany , Ireland , Netherlands , Spain
April 27, 2017

14. Methodology: Who is Middle-income?
Middle-class or middle-income adults live in households with incomes ranging from two-thirds to double the national median household income
Income measure used is disposable household income
Middle-income boundaries vary across countries, based on each country’s median disposable household income
Alternatives tested:
Gross household income
U.S. median household income
Previous Pew Research Center analyses for the U.S. are based on gross household income
April 27, 2017

15. What it Takes to be Middle Income Varies by Country: Part 1
Middle-income range in 2010 for a three-person household,
in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars
Note: Middle-income households have disposable incomes that are two-thirds to double the national median disposable income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

16. What it Takes to be Middle Income Varies by Country: Part 2
Middle-income range in 2010 for a three-person household,
in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars
Note: Middle-income households have disposable incomes that are two-thirds to double the national median disposable income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

17. Who is Middle Income or Upper Income? The U.S. Example
Minimum 2010 disposable household income, in 2011 prices,
needed to qualify for middle- and upper-income tiers, by household size
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS)
April 27, 2017

18. What it Takes to be Middle Income Changes Over Time
Middle-income range in the U.S. for a three-person household
Note: Incomes are disposable household incomes expressed in 2011 prices.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

19. THE MIDDLE CLASSES
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20. Middle-class Shares in Western Europe are Larger than in the U.S.
% of adult population in lower-, middle- and upper-income households, 2010
Note: Middle-income households have disposable incomes that are two-thirds to double the national median disposable income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

21. Middle-class Shares are Falling in Majority of Countries…
% of adults living in middle-income households in 1991 and 2010
Note: Middle-income households have disposable incomes that are two-thirds to double the national median disposable income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size. For some countries the 1991 estimates are from the following survey years: Denmark , France , Germany , Ireland , Netherlands , Spain
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

22. …and Lower- and Upper-income Shares are Increasing in Many Countries
% point change in shares of adults in lower-, middle- and upper-income tiers, 1991 to 2010
Note: For some countries the 1991 estimates are from the following survey years: Denmark , France , Germany , Ireland , Netherlands , Spain
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

23. Overall, There is More Movement Up the Income Ladder than Downward in Most Countries
Change in the share of adults in upper-income households minus the change in the share in lower-income households (percentage point change), 1991 to 2010
Note: For some countries the 1991 estimates are from the following survey years: Denmark , France , Germany , Ireland , Netherlands , Spain
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

24. INCOMES
April 27, 2017

25. in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars
Luxembourg Households Have the Highest Incomes, Followed by Those of U.S.
National median disposable household income in 2010 for a three-person household,
in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

26. Share of Middle-income Adults Rises with National Household Income; U
Share of Middle-income Adults Rises with National Household Income; U.S. Appears an Exception
Note: Middle-income households have disposable incomes that are two-thirds to double the national median disposable income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size. Disposable incomes are expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

27. in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars
Household Incomes in Most Western European Countries Rose Faster than in the U.S. from 1991 to 2010
National median disposable household income scaled to reflect a three-person household,
in 2011 prices and purchasing power parity dollars
Note: The survey dates for some countries differ slightly from the dates shown as follows: Denmark , France , Germany , Ireland , Netherlands , and Spain Incomes for these countries are projected to Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

28. All Income Tiers in Majority of Western European Countries are Catching up to the U.S. in their Standard of Living
% change in median disposable household income, 1991 to 2010, by income tier
Note: Incomes are first adjusted for household size and expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities. For some countries the 1991 estimates are from the following survey years: Denmark , France , Germany , Ireland , Netherlands , Spain Incomes for these countries are projected to Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

29. Countries with Higher Income Inequality Have Smaller Shares of Adults who are Middle-income
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
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30. INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
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31. Income Distributions in Western European Countries and the U. S
Income Distributions in Western European Countries and the U.S. (Part 1)
% of adults with a given level of disposable household income in 2010
Note: Incomes are adjusted for household size, scaled to reflect a household of three, and expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

32. Income Distributions in Western European Countries and the U. S
Income Distributions in Western European Countries and the U.S. (Part 2)
% of adults with a given level of disposable household income in 2010
Note: Incomes are adjusted for household size, scaled to reflect a household of three, and expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

33. Income Distributions in Western European Countries and the U. S
Income Distributions in Western European Countries and the U.S. (Part 3)
% of adults with a given level of disposable household income in 2010
Note: Incomes are adjusted for household size, scaled to reflect a household of three, and expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities.
Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

34. ALTERNATIVE STANDARDS
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35. Larger Shares of Adults are in the Middle Class Based on their Disposable Income Than their Gross income
% of adult population in lower-, middle- and upper-income households, 2010
Note: Middle-income households have incomes that are two-thirds to double the national median income, after incomes have been adjusted for household size. France and Italy are not shown because of the lack of data on gross income. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

36. Middle-class Share Decreases in Many Western European Countries When the U.S. Income is Used to Define Tiers
% of adult population in lower-, middle- and upper-income households, 2010
The "national income standard" uses each country's own median disposable household income. The "U.S. income standard" uses the median disposable household income in the U.S. after incomes in all countries are expressed in 2011 prices and purchasing power parities. Source: Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg (LIS).
April 27, 2017

37. Rakesh Kochhar Associate Director, Research rkochhar@pewresearch.org
April 27, 2017