1. Alpine Fault Research Proposal Flagship 3/RiskScape Jason Ingham, David Johnston, Nick Horspool, Caroline Orchiston Shannon Abeling (QC Schol), Paco Galvez (QC Schol), Moustafa Swidan (unfunded UA PhD), Stacy Vallis (UA PhD Schol)

2. Prior to Kaikoura earthquakes Remote access data capture: Logic being that due to landslides etc it will be difficult to get access to West Coast for building/infrastructure inspections. Rely on locals for initial inspections
Drones used to limited extent in Christchurch. Technology has since greatly improved.
Opportunity to develop pre-programmed flight paths
Ensure ‘NZ Inc’ is aware and familiar with technology and opportunity
“Social media” can be effective method for data acquisition
Locals upload images of building/bridge/infrastructure to ‘data hub’ for remote critique and compilation to understand regional extent of damage
Not brought forward
Too “gimmicky”? Lacking ‘science excellence’?
Not used in Kaikoura earthquakes

3. Wellington?
Studies on taller multi-storey ‘complex buildings’ being undertaken within Flagship 4

4. RiskScape: Asset inventories, fragilities, and scenario studies for South Island rural industries (wineries and diary factories)
Significant influence on national economy. Opportunity to bring Ilan Noy into Alpine Fault work program
Significant unreported damage
High priority for ‘RiskScape team’
Not brought forward: Not ‘buildings’. Not heritage. Concept was not favoured at last Alpine Fault team meeting

5. Two problems with applying ‘unadjusted’ Christchurch casualty data
Extensive earlier damage in Darfield earthquake when city was unoccupied
Many dangerous buildings were barracked in Feb 2011

6. Revised injury models
Casualty state = ground motion x damage states x %debris over building frontage x person present x casualty data
Building volume loss, failure modes, debris fall data
Rhise casualty data set
RiskScape casualty models
Pedestrian model data
RiskScape scenarios
New aspects:
Further value extracted from URM dataset
Superior casualty models
Inform CDEM efforts
Improve RiskScape
Inform socio-economic impacts

7. What town/city?
Simulations don’t clearly identify a location having large stock of vulnerable buildings
Nelson, Ashburton, Timaru, Oamaru, Queenstown, Dunedin, Invercargill, Greymouth
Branch faults? ‘Black swan events’?

8. Oamaru Representative: Location, size, shaking
Distinct heritage precinct – align with QuakeCoRE projects (Tourism, architecture)
RiskScape:
Full asset inventory of every building in Oamaru CBD
Specific application of building damage models
Application of casualty models
New aspects:
Superior scenario studies (Asset inventory, damage models, casualty models)
Effects of retrofitting on reduced casualties and damage
Potentially replicated to other locations? Dunedin? Queenstown?