1. 2012-based Population Projections for England
Denise Williams
Office for National Statistics
21 November 2014

2. Introduction Who needs them? About ONS population projections
Projections for England
Projections for local authorities

3. Who needs projections? Policy makers Planners Central government
Local government
Planners
Housing
Education
Health
Social Care
Businesses

4. How would they use them? Directly when estimates are not yet available
Within their own models
as a basis for, or to act as constraints
Variants are often used in models to sense check policies
checking out the effects of alternative assumptions

5. ONS projections UK national population projections
Long term horizon to 2112
Variant projections produced
Subnational population projections for England
25 year horizon to 2037
Local authority and Clinical Commissioning Groups

6. Basic methodology Use the cohort component method
Start with a base population
and age it on a year
+ Births
Deaths
+/- migrants
Components are calculated based on assumptions made

7. Projected population growth in England

8. Population mid-2012 and mid-2037, England

9. Estimated and projected births and deaths, England, 1971 to 2087

10. How different are these from the 2010 based national projection
Not much in terms of projected population
0.9% smaller by 2037
Base population larger after the 2011 Census
Long term assumptions have changed
Fertility assumptions are higher
TFR of 1.90
Net migration assumptions are lower
+143,500
Mortality about the same

11. Comparison of 2010 and 2012 based projections for 2037 by age and sex for England

12. Population growth 10 years to mid-2022

13. Projected population growth rate by local authority, England, 2012 to 2022

14. Population growth over 10 years to 2022, England
Source: 2012-based Subnational Population Projections, ONS

15. Yorkshire and the Humber in 2012

16. Yorkshire and the Humber by 2022?

17. Yorkshire and the Humber by 2037?

18. York in 2012

19. York by 2022?

20. York by 2037?

21. York

22. Scarborough in 2012

23. Scarborough by 2037?

24. Scarborough

25. So do we need them? I am biased but I would say yes.
What has happened in the past impacts the future structure of the population
These statistics clearly illustrate that national trends are not always reflected locally
They provide a base line from which debate about what the future population will be can be held
However, we also need informed users who understand what projections are not.
We don’t have crystal balls

26. Contact details projections@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Any Questions
Contact details
Overview of population statistics -
Population estimates and projections -