1. GPC-Montreal - Status Report - March 2014
Dr. Bertrand Denis
Meteorological Service of Canada
&
Colleagues at CMC and CCCma
WMO Meeting of the CBS/CCL Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-Seasonal to long time-scales
Exeter, UK, March 2014

2. The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)
Developed at CCCma
Operational at CMC since Dec 2011
2 models CanCM3/4, 10 ensemble members each (total 20)
Hindcast verification period =
Forecast range = 12 months
Forecasts initialized at the start of every month (no time-lag IC)

3. The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS)
Forecasts produced at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) contribute to:
WMO (
NMME (
APCC MME (
IRI ENSO plumes and ensemble
Met Office Hadley Centre multi-annual to decadal experiment (provided directly by CCCma)

5. Operational improvements since CanSIPS implementation in Dec 2011
CanSIPS being operational, it needs constant adaptation to the ever evolving operational ecosystem at CMC
Feb 2013:
25-km CMC Global 4Dvar analysis assimilated (previously at 33 km)
March 2013:
New and improved CMC SST analysis used for SST nudging
June 2013:
Calibration of the probability forecasts implemented
Soil moisture bias correction implemented

6. Operational improvements since CanSIPS implementation in Dec 2011
CanSIPS being operational, it needs constant adaptation to the ever evolving operational ecosystem at CMC
Feb 2013:
25-km CMC Global 4Dvar analysis assimilated (previously at 33 km)
March 2013:
New and improved CMC SST analysis used for SST nudging
June 2013:
Calibration of the probability forecasts implemented
Soil moisture bias correction implemented

7. Impact of calibration MAM 2014 precipitation forecast over Canada
3-category Probabilistic Forecast
Without calibration
With calibration
Official forecast issued on

8. Soil moisture bias correction
Change from ERA reanalysis for atmospheric assimilation in hindcasts to CMC analysis in operational forecasts led to accumulating soil moisture deficit
This has been fixed using the bias correction procedure of Kharin & Scinocca (GRL 2012)
Soil moisture in hindcasts is OK
Soil moisture in operational forecasts produced after June inclusive is OK
Soil moisture in operational forecasts produced from Nov 2011 to May inclusive suffers from this bias
CanCM3
CanCM4
Global mean VFSM anomaly
ERA assimilation
CMC assimilation

9. Mandatory forecast products 2-m temperature
3-category Calibrated Probabilistic Forecast
Historical skill
Year=2013, DJF, 1-month lead
ROC - above
ROC - below
Areas where forecast probability exceeds 40% are shaded in colours. White color indicates areas where forecast probabilities of all 3 categories are below 40% and approximately equal

10. Mandatory forecast products Precipitation
3-category Calibrated Probabilistic Forecast
Historical skill
Year=2013, DJF, 1-month lead
ROC - above
ROC - below
Areas where forecast probability exceeds 40% are shaded in colours. White color indicates areas where forecast probabilities of all 3 categories are below 40% and approximately equal

11. WMO recommended forecast products
Calibrated probability forecasts
MSLP
850 hpa
500 hPa geopotential height
SST

12. Experimental forecast products Soil moisture
3-category Calibrated Probabilistic Forecast
Historical skill
Year=2013, NDJ, 0-month lead
ROC - above
ROC - below
Areas where forecast probability exceeds 40% are shaded in colours. White color indicates areas where forecast probabilities of all 3 categories are below 40% and approximately equal

13. Experimental forecast products Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Precip. Standardized Anomaly Forecast for May-June-July 2012

14. Experimental forecast products - Sea ice -
Probabilistic
2-categories (abv/blw normal)
Anomalies

15. Experimental forecast products SST anomalies & sea ice & snow depth

16. Other products under consideration
Products for extreme events
Probabilities for outer (1st/5th) quintiles more clearly indicate likelihood of extremes – Currently experimental at CCCma
Probability of occurrence of extreme events within a season (e.g. Probability of minimum temperature under -30°C at least one day) – Currently in use for EPS 2-weeks forecast at CMC
Seasonal forecast of summer severe weather potential (tornados)
Seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone genesis potential
Seasonal storm track density forecasts
Stream flow forecasting
Additional climate indices forecasts
Atmospheric blocking index
Monsoon indices

17. Upcoming improvements
Addition of a 7-months forecast at each mid-month
Assimilation of CMC/Mercator SAM2 global ocean analysis
New operational monthly forecast system
21 members at 50 km based on GEPS (kalman filter IC)
Forecast issued weekly
Hindcast ‘on-the-fly’
Later ..
Ensemble size 20  40 Increased
Horizontal resolution T63  T127?
Assimilate land surface analysis
Sea ice thickness initialization
Add GEM + NEMO coupled system
Use of a RCM for downscaling

18. Data access CanSIPS data sets are publicly available (free of charge)
On CMC datamart public servers (no password required)
Hindcasts and forecasts (available each 1st day of the month)
GRIB 2 format; working on NETCDF4 for NMME
On CCCma OpenDAP servers
Hindcasts only
More info:
ftp://dapp2p.cccma.uvic.ca/pub/goapp/CHFP/CHFP2_Data_Guide_v1.pdf

19. Data access
CanSIPS data sets are also available through other organizations, ex:
WMO LRFMME:
NMME:
@ NCAR EGS gateway

20. THANK YOU !