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VISTAS 2018 Emissions Projections
Presented by: Gregory Stella VISTAS Technical Advisor – Emission Inventories Alpine Geophysics, LLC Inter-RPO Emissions Inventory Workgroup Meeting April 15, 2005 Riviera Hotel, Las Vegas, NV
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VISTAS 2018/2009 Emissions Start with revised typical 2002
Nov/Dec 2004 vintage 2018 Base/Control Cases 2009 Base/Control Cases
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VISTAS 2018/2009 Emissions What’s New? Revised VISTAS Base Cases
CAIR proposal data IPM Runs for VISTAS/MRPO
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Emission Projection Scenarios
Base 1 (OTB) (Promulgated as of July 1, 2004) Atlanta / Northern Kentucky / Birmingham 1-hr SIPs Combustion Turbine MACT Gulf Power SCR application Heavy Duty Diesel (2007) Engine Standard Industrial Boiler/Process Heater/RICE MACT Large Spark Ignition and Recreational Vehicle Rule Nonroad Diesel Rule North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act NOx RACT in 1-hr NAA SIPs NOx SIP Call (Phase I) Petroleum Refinery Initiative RFP 3% Plans where in place for one hour plans TECO & VEPCO Consent Agreements Tier 2 Tailpipe Title IV for Phase I and II EGUs VOC 2-, 4-, 7-, and 10-year MACT Standards
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Emission Projection Scenarios
Base 2 (OTW) Base 1 assumptions Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) NOx SIP Call (Phase II)
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CAIR Proposal Data New growth rates and control factors
Reviewed and felt are improvements to preliminary VISTAS projection data Growth – “pre-EGAS 5.0” Control – more current information Factors integrated with VISTAS S/L/T provided growth and control from initial forecasts
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Integrated Planning Model (IPM)
VISTAS/MRPO contracted ICF to run IPM for our strategies Developed 2009 / 2018 power sector (EGU) emission projections VISTAS Base 1 (OTB) & Base 2 (OTW)
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State Level 2002 Typical Annual Emissions
Annual 2002 Typical Emissions (Tons) State VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama 437,306 493,563 2,504,335 582,231 227,119 106,443 67,849 Florida 1,220,445 964,459 7,463,271 595,882 388,669 197,008 60,232 Georgia 713,704 671,405 4,432,779 789,687 349,416 154,079 97,343 Kentucky 281,937 541,908 1,793,765 603,796 145,870 55,870 57,015 Mississippi 311,258 313,061 1,360,087 110,369 202,131 69,016 63,829 North Carolina 764,512 655,033 4,600,291 551,715 224,315 105,420 174,203 South Carolina 391,415 339,536 2,083,629 284,791 171,694 87,643 35,188 Tennessee 476,659 574,108 2,728,845 465,690 180,399 92,999 42,640 Virginia 378,260 473,076 3,015,956 328,402 143,184 80,482 55,351 West Virginia 134,655 375,646 851,778 568,500 53,043 33,037 12,258 VISTAS Total 5,110,150 5,401,794 30,834,738 4,881,064 2,085,840 981,997 665,907
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State Level 2018 OTB Annual Emissions
Annual 2018 OTB Emissions (Tons) State VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama 346,737 356,195 2,435,152 544,138 271,461 134,152 85,597 Florida 1,032,774 556,717 7,420,049 375,804 440,917 196,453 75,816 Georgia 598,210 406,436 4,334,287 691,624 436,424 193,097 123,772 Kentucky 237,076 391,830 1,648,275 519,885 187,251 83,290 63,563 Mississippi 264,082 210,657 1,221,316 122,745 215,394 70,024 76,202 North Carolina 487,118 250,106 3,519,564 203,189 231,103 110,083 196,931 South Carolina 341,667 205,981 1,943,741 261,054 182,455 85,707 43,391 Tennessee 423,504 340,957 2,325,914 453,288 200,145 101,483 47,919 Virginia 297,182 286,896 2,733,816 280,578 162,830 90,171 65,713 West Virginia 112,339 276,445 757,365 556,869 86,775 62,155 15,150 VISTAS Total 4,140,691 3,282,221 28,339,480 4,009,174 2,414,755 1,126,615 794,053
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State Level 2018 OTW Annual Emissions
Annual 2018 OTW Emissions (Tons) State VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama 346,775 250,106 2,438,445 395,339 260,097 123,151 85,861 Florida 1,032,710 457,159 7,418,014 286,907 435,802 191,883 75,659 Georgia 598,207 343,058 4,336,030 359,226 422,108 179,285 123,918 Kentucky 237,057 273,482 1,646,255 316,238 179,200 75,348 63,572 Mississippi 264,143 183,508 1,223,691 72,009 215,585 70,215 76,388 North Carolina 487,106 245,486 3,519,859 147,703 229,944 109,149 196,972 South Carolina 341,677 186,232 1,944,237 234,573 182,346 85,615 43,430 Tennessee 423,432 259,583 2,325,349 233,236 193,474 94,894 47,886 Virginia 297,163 265,676 2,733,868 215,227 161,093 88,561 65,737 West Virginia 112,324 146,248 757,293 185,847 73,603 49,075 15,147 VISTAS Total 4,140,592 2,610,539 28,343,040 2,446,305 2,353,253 1,067,176 794,569
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State Level 2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Emissions Change (Tons)
Annual 2018 OTW Typical Emissions (Tons) State VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama -90,531 -243,457 -65,891 -186,892 32,978 16,708 18,012 Florida -187,735 -507,300 -45,257 -308,975 47,132 -5,125 15,427 Georgia -115,497 -328,347 -96,750 -430,461 72,692 25,206 26,575 Kentucky -44,880 -268,426 -147,510 -287,558 33,330 19,478 6,557 Mississippi -47,115 -129,553 -136,396 -38,361 13,454 1,199 12,559 North Carolina -277,406 -409,547 -1,080,432 -404,013 5,629 3,729 22,769 South Carolina -49,738 -153,304 -139,393 -50,218 10,653 -2,028 8,242 Tennessee -53,227 -314,525 -403,496 -232,454 13,075 1,895 5,246 Virginia -81,097 -207,399 -282,089 -113,175 17,909 8,079 10,387 West Virginia -22,331 -229,397 -94,485 -382,652 20,561 16,038 2,889 VISTAS Total -969,557 -2,791,255 -2,491,698 -2,434,758 267,413 85,180 128,662
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State Level 2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Emissions Change (Percent)
Annual 2018 OTW Typical Emissions (Tons) State VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama -21% -49% -3% -32% 15% 16% 27% Florida -15% -53% -1% -52% 12% 26% Georgia -16% -2% -55% 21% Kentucky -50% -8% -48% 23% 35% Mississippi -41% -10% -35% 7% 2% 20% North Carolina -36% -63% -23% -73% 3% 4% 13% South Carolina -13% -45% -7% -18% 6% Tennessee -11% Virginia -44% -9% -34% 10% 19% West Virginia -17% -61% -67% 39% 49% 24% VISTAS Total -19% 9%
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Annual NOx Emissions
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Annual SO2 Emissions
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Annual PM-2.5 Emissions
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Annual NH3 Emissions
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Source Type 2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Emissions Change (Tons)
Annual 2018 OTW Typical Emissions (Tons) Source Category VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 1,683 -1,054,128 77,056 -2,418,424 78,355 67,186 12,634 Fuel Comb. Industrial 4,047 -1,016 60,677 32,173 5,726 5,713 438 Fuel Comb. Other -228,390 20,116 -219,918 16,685 -15,905 -5,405 633 Chemical & Allied Product Mfg 56,222 5,803 41,791 23,899 3,790 2,770 1,939 Metals Processing 7,577 3,249 65,090 18,353 5,823 5,211 361 Petroleum & Related Industries -6,425 1,646 6,698 6,064 839 498 41 Other Industrial Processes 43,189 17,788 33,743 18,576 23,642 14,031 1,231 Solvent Utilization 284,915 2,740 380 21 1,449 1,229 66 Storage & Transport -61,947 303 276 77 -362 74 34 Waste Disposal & Recycling 13,839 4,526 92,230 2,324 14,776 13,215 390 Highway Vehicles -846,184 -1,544,768 -3,909,685 -79,246 -17,478 -19,524 26,780 Off-highway -240,944 -247,570 1,259,403 -55,262 -20,751 -19,840 120 Miscellaneous 2,860 56 560 1 187,511 20,021 83,995 VISTAS Total -969,557 -2,791,255 -2,491,698 -2,434,758 267,413 85,180 128,662
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Source Type 2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Emissions Change (Percent)
Annual 2018 OTW Typical Emissions (Percent) Source Category VOC NOx CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Fuel Comb. Elec. Util. 13% -68% 53% -63% 69% 82% 3024% Fuel Comb. Industrial 12% 0% 15% 7% 5% 28% Fuel Comb. Other -55% 19% -28% -16% -8% 23% Chemical & Allied Product Mfg 50% 29% 32% 31% 36% 27% Metals Processing 43% 37% 20% 60% Petroleum & Related Industries -19% 11% 35% 33% Other Industrial Processes 22% 21% 25% 16% Solvent Utilization 48% 34% Storage & Transport 46% -4% 2% 40% Waste Disposal & Recycling 9% 10% 52% Highway Vehicles -47% -70% -89% -34% -53% Off-highway -40% -30% -61% -29% Miscellaneous 14% VISTAS Total -52% -50%
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2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Annual NOx Emissions Change
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2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Annual SO2 Emissions Change
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2018 OTW – 2002 Typical Annual PM-2.5 Emissions Change
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