1. What Went Wrong? Why Clinton „Lost“
Christian Welzel Nov. 17, 2016

2. One of the Most Acclaimed Forecasting Sites (Nate Silver, „Five Thirty Eight“)
Sourcee:

3. The Truth Popular Vote 47.9% (61,993,000) 47.1% (60,949,000)
[as of Nov. 17, 2016]
47.1% (60,949,000)
Discrepancy
The Truth
232
290
critical threshold:
270 (of 538)
Source: CNN Projection
Clinton: 248 with Michigan?

4. The Gigantic Republican Area Advantage

5. The Republican area advantage, adjusted for population density -
A divided country:
(1) vast thinly populated rural areas = Republicans
(2) scattered densely populated urban centers = Democrats

6. Spotlight: Clinton looses by 100,000 votes in
62%
59%
Spotlight: Clinton looses by 100,000 votes in
Pennsylvenia (20 electorals), although – like
Obama – she won 80% of the votes in Philadelphia.
Problem: among those 80%, there are 30,000
fewer votes than under Obama (the FBI-effect:
de-mobilizing the Democratic base).

7. Clinton and Trump Supporters:
Typical Clinton supporters are in only
a few states the clear majority!
40.6% of the electorate
22.2% of the electorate
Source: CNN Exit Poll (N = 24,537)

8. The group that decided
the election:
„Angry White Men“
(and their spouses)

9. Source: CNN Exit Poll (N = 24,537)

10. Trump‘s Conquest of the Battleground

11. Core areas
of staff and
financial
deployment in
recent presidential
elections:
Florida and the
Great Lakes
(„Rust Belt“) –
the Battleground!

12. The Crumbling of the Blue Wall
Source: New York Times

13. 75 electorals for Trump 10 electorals for Clinton
In particularly tight races, Trump won many more electorals than Clinton. Under the
„winner takes it all“ logic, this allows you to achieve a great win in the electoral college
despite loosing the popular vote: a fundamental violation of the „one man, one vote“ principle
because this means that rural votes matter much more than urban ones. 75
electorals
for Trump 10
electorals
for Clinton
Source: CNN

14. Postindustrial Western Democracies
EMANCIPATION
(e.g. same-sex marriage)
The Conflict Space in
Postindustrial Western
Democracies
Democrats
„Language“ barrier
„Political Correctness“
Republicans
„Locker Room“
EDU CATION
WELFARE STATE
(e.g. Obamacare)
MARKET LIBERTY
(e.g. tax cuts)
IN COME
White Working Class
(WWC)
TRADITION
(e.g. Mexican border wall)
Source: My own depiciton

15. Education is a stronger cleavage on LIFESTYLE issues than is income on the BREAD &
BUTTER issues.
Bread and Butter
Lifestyle
For democratic strategists: the leftist course of the Clinton campaign in lifestyle matters
deterred more WWC voters than her leftist course in job matters attracted them. One reason:
these voters feel more appeal by the „emotiveness“ of the SLOGAN than by the „reason“ of
the ARGUEMENT.
Source: World Values Survey VI, US 2012 (N = 1,171)

16. What Went Wrong?
A Tale of Misperceptions of the WWC (white working class):
(1) Misperception A: Trump‘s sexism disgusts all women, including those
belonging to the WWC.
(2) Misperception B: Trump‘s billionaire status builds an identification
blockade to the WWC.
(3) Misperception C: The lack of substance in Trump‘s policy proposals
discloses him visibly fore everyone as a demagogue who lacks both
credibility and expertise.
(4) Because of these misperceptions, it has generally been
underestimated how strongly many WWC-members identified
with the sexism and racism of Trump‘s language.
(5) Similarly, it has generally been underestimated how strongly the
impulse to teach the „establishment“ a lesson overpowers rational
voting motives among „angry“ population segments.
(6) One correct expectation: the racism in Trump‘s language did
estrange all non-Whites, which are the winning majority in too
few states (still) to decide the election.

17. Finally
Analysts underestimated the desire for „change“ that brought Obama
to power but remained largely dissatisfied throughout his presidency
and has, hence, grown even stronger ever since.
In the eyes of this desire, Clinton‘s embeddedness in the establishment
appeared like a continuation of the status quo, whereas the „wild card“
Trump appeared like a more credible promise for „change“ – no matter
what kind of change that might be.

18. In a nutshell: The Clinton campaign (like most
pundits) operated under serious
misperceptions concerning the feelings
of the WWC.
Hence, she did much better in terms
of race than in terms of gender!