1. John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service
Flash Drought in 2012/
A Look Ahead
John Lewis, Senior Forecaster
National Weather Service
Little Rock, Arkansas

2. 2012 Drought Rehash
After some early rain, it was the driest April through July period on record in Arkansas.
At one time, 85% of pastures were in poor or very poor condition. This led to lackluster hay production and the smallest hay yields since the mid 1950s. Ranchers were forced to sell cows.
The tropics brought some improvement in late August/early September, but relief bypassed the north/west.

3. Precipitation Trends

4. The Pattern
Early Summer, 2012

5. Record Dry Period

6. Record Dry Period

7. Hurricane Isaac
The system made landfall along the Louisiana Coast on August 28th. Remnants of the system affected Arkansas on the 30th and September 1st.

8. Rain with Isaac
Ninety six hour amounts through 700 am CDT on September 1st.

9. Rain with Isaac
Forty eight hour amounts through 700 am CDT on September 1st.

10. South/East Relief

11. South/East Relief

12. Quick Fact
Surrounding Isaac, Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) got more rain (8.39”) in two days than Fort Smith (Sebastian County) and Texarkana (Miller County) received from August through November (122 days).

13. Soil Moisture
November 28, 2012

14. Drought Status
November 29, 2012

15. Rainfall
Through November

16. Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Short Term Forecast
Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)

17. Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Short Term Forecast
Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)

18. Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)
Short Term Forecast
Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)

19. The Forecast
El Niño
La Niña

20. La Niña Forecast
Precipitation

21. La Niña Forecast
Temperature

22. The Forecast
Precipitation
Southeast Arkansas
Northwest Arkansas

23. Official Outlook
Precipitation

24. Putting Words to It
In the short term, the weather should become more active in the next couple of weeks, with better chances for significant precipitation.
The long term outlook (December through February) calls for at or above normal precipitation.
This is the perfect time to recharge the soil with water (dormant vegetation). However, it may not be enough given rainfall deficits.

25. Fast Fact
Major ice storms in December, 2000 and January, 2009 occurred when conditions were neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño).

26. Fast Fact
Some of the more destructive tornadoes were spawned when conditions were neutral (such as on March 1, 1997).

27. On the Web
There is much more information on the National Weather Service Little Rock website at this address…
or Google…
National Weather Service Little Rock

28. On the Web

29. The End
Thanks for coming!