1. A part of Creston Unlimited
A re-built methodological process for the 2017 General Election Martin Boon

2. It’s quicker to say what’s the same, rather than what’s new, but:
Telephone to Online.
N = 1,000 to N = 2,000.
Political quotas at fieldwork stage in addition to demographic quotas.
Turnout weighting by age x class rather than by 10-point scale factors.
Weighting by interest in politics.
Weighting by recall of past vote to 100%.
Variable adjustment of both ‘partial refusers’ and (fully new) ‘total refusers’ in line with partial refuser adjustment plus 20% Conservative dividend.

3. Not so heroic failure: the 2015 ICM experience
Unweighted
Demog only
PV weights
Turnout weights
Pol. Int weights
Adjusted
35%
32%
33% -
34%
38%
37%
36% 8% 7% 9%
11%
12% 5% 6% 3% 4%
PC/Other 2% +2 -3 +1 - - +1 -

4. ICM’s latest poll (19-21st May 2017)
Unweighted
Demog only
PV weights
Turnout weights
Pol. Int weights
Adjusted
43%
44%
45%
47%
48%
37%
36%
34%
33% 9% 8% 3% 4% 2%
PC/Other 1% +4 -4 - +1 - - -

5. The view from over here
If ICM remains the outlier on the low end of Labour, I will be delighted.
If we over-shoot on the Tories, well, it’s about time, and I speculate it would not be far away from the result.
My polling golden rule: if you can find a point (or two) for the Tories off Labour without doing much else, congratulations.
But I’m done with method changes……I think. The others can herd if they like.
Amongst other things, I have been accused of class war and age discrimination. Always grateful for further thoughts.