Talent Infrastructure Summit

Talent Infrastructure Summit
Southwest Indiana September 28, 2017

Overview National trends Region definition/labor shed
Southwest Indiana growing slower than the nation Largest sector--education/health care--provides stable growth 2nd largest sector—manufacturing—is volatile but provides high wages Growth rate over next 10 years expected to be much slower than nation based on current industry mix

National Economy

Real GDP Growth Picked Up But Qtr 3 Will Be Impacted by Hurricane
Source: BEA. Data through 2nd Qtr 2017

Hurricane Harvey and Irma Adds Volatility to Last 2 Quarters
Harvey: $60 - $108 billion Irma: up to $83 billion Top 3 most-costly hurricanes since 1980 (in 2017 dollars) 1992 Andrew (Dade County, FL & LA): $47.8 billion 2016 Sandy (Caribbean & NYC): $70 billion Katrina (New Orleans): $160 billion Near-term negative impact Loss of life Damaged infrastructure Disrupted businesses Reconstruction efforts will boost economic growth Source: National Center for Environmental Information

National Forecast Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics
Note: Yields reported for the average of the quarter GDP based on advanced figures (Billions of 2009 Dollars)

Defining the Region

Regional Labor Shed – Geographic Area Where Firms Attract Workers
Attracting firms to the region - include the skills of all potential workers even if they reside outside the SW IN region Some residents of the SW IN region work for firms outside of the region Training providers and educators in the SW IN region need to take those skills into account when developing their offerings

Labor Shed: Southwest Indiana + 9 Counties

Population Growth

Population Population Annual average growth rate, 2006-2016
Southwest Indiana: 303,398 Southwest Indiana Labor Shed: 621,453 Annual average growth rate, Southwest Indiana: 0.3% Southwest Indiana Labor Shed: 0.3% United States: 0.8% Annual average projected growth rate, 2016 – 2030 Southwest Indiana Labor Shed: 0.4%

Southwest Indiana Age Cohorts are Similar to the Nation

Southwest Indiana: Number of Residents 65+ Year Old will Increase by 2030

Population By Age Cohort: 2010

Population By Age Cohort: 2030

Economic Growth

+9,418 Jobs Since 2009 Q4 (+6.2%; US +9.9%)

+17,868 Jobs Since 2010 Q1 (+6.1%; US +10.8%)

Recent Growth is Much Less Than Nation

Unemployment Rate Much Lower than in Nation

Lower Average Wages

Lower Average Wages Partially Due to Lower Cost of Living

Industry Mix By Major Sector: Percent of Total Employment

Large Manufacturing Base Increases Overall Wages

Relatively Smaller FIRE & PBS Reduces Overall Wages

Manufacturing Employment +2,600 Jobs Since 2011 Q4 (+11.3%; US +5.0%)

Manufacturing Employment +6,248 Jobs Since 2010 Q1 (+12.8%; US +6.1%)

Region Shedding Jobs in Machinery and Metal Manufacturing

Manufacturing Pays Well (Example: Computer Mfg $117,061 Average Annual Wage)

Health Care Employment Didn’t Decline During Recession (+4,697 Jobs or +23.3% Since 2005 Q1; US +29.7%)

+9,167 Jobs or +23.9% Since 2005 Q1; US +29.7%

Health Care Wages Almost as High as in the Nation

Importance of Health Care is Evident in Job Postings

Certifications in Greatest Demand Also Points to Health Care

Clusters with High LQ Make it Easier to Attract Similar Firms

Southwest Indiana Labor Shed
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Change over the Last 1 Year Average Annual % Change in Employment 2016q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years Industry Employ-ment Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient SW IN Labor Shed SW IN USA Total Approx Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 5,219 $47,738 1.16 75 1.5% 4.3% -0.6% 1,758 -425 -0.8% Mining, Quarrying, Oil/Gas Extraction 3,290 $69,191 2.62 -671 -16.9% -18.7% -9.9% 781 -103 -0.3% Utilities 3,607 $82,430 2.17 -145 -3.9% -3.0% -0.1% 860 -467 -1.4% Construction 17,606 $49,162 1.03 -3 0.0% -2.0% 2.4% 3,585 1,625 0.9% Manufacturing 55,019 $57,014 2.15 165 0.3% -0.9% 12,191 -4,944 Wholesale Trade 10,834 $53,654 0.89 -205 -1.9% 0.1% 2,389 96 Retail Trade 34,601 $26,404 491 1.4% 0.5% 10,869 1,342 0.4% Transportation and Warehousing 13,642 $46,504 1.04 78 0.6% 4.1% 3.0% 3,486 -441 Information 3,238 $41,391 0.52 -106 -3.2% -3.8% 734 -371 -1.2% Finance and Insurance 8,510 $53,985 0.69 334 1,997 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 3,396 $35,894 0.64 -17 -0.5% 1.3% 743 -95 Professional, Scientific, & Technical Srv 8,818 $56,292 0.43 33 1.8% 1,865 562 Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises 3,681 $94,699 0.81 -134 -3.5% -4.9% 2.0% 775 -27 Admin/Support, Waste Mgmt, Remediation Srvs 16,945 $27,989 0.84 -157 3,894 1,097 Educational Services 22,316 $34,029 0.87 -423 -1.6% 0.7% 4,674 310 Health Care and Social Assistance 47,598 $46,191 1.07 1,290 2.8% 2.6% 9,612 5,980 1.2% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 4,666 $18,486 0.75 -64 2.3% 1,435 155 Accommodation and Food Services 24,195 $14,704 -33 0.2% 2.2% 8,491 397 Other Services (except Public Administration) 14,263 $25,256 -268 -1.8% 3,567 68 Public Administration 10,047 $38,368 0.68 292 4.2% 2,409 -125 Total - All Industries 311,514 $41,857 1.00 542 75,969 4,632 Source: JobsEQ® Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Manufacturing Pays Well: Top 10 Paying Industries (Southwest Indiana Labor Shed)
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Change over the Last 1 Year Average Annual % Change in Employment 2016q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years NAICS Industry Employ-ment Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient SW IN Labor Shed SW IN USA Total Approx Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 3241 Petroleum and Coal Products 685 $148,097 3.02 90 15.1% 14.7% 0.0% 177 -53 -0.8% 3342 Communications Equipment 111 $123,616 0.64 -4 -3.2% -2.2% 19 -31 3115 Dairy Product 651 $108,581 2.25 -83 -11.3% -9.9% 2.6% 162 -39 -0.6% 3252 Resin, Synthetic Rubber, and Artificial Synthetic Fibers & Filaments 1,726 $105,699 9.13 25 1.5% -1.3% -0.4% 450 -301 -1.9% 3122 Tobacco 553 $90,904 22.94 -103 -15.7% n/a -10.7% 107 -188 -4.1% 3343 Audio and Video Equipment 11 $90,780 0.27 -2 -14.2% -17.7% -3.1% 2 -2.5% 3254 Pharmaceutical and Medicine 669 $85,569 1.14 -26 -3.8% 1.8% 158 -40 3313 Alumina and Aluminum Production and Processing 2,087 $80,327 17.71 -362 -14.8% -25.4% -2.0% 465 -290 -1.5% 3361 Motor Vehicle 5,932 $78,666 13.88 216 3.8% 4.0% 1.7% 1,112 -144 -0.2% 3112 Grain and Oilseed Milling 797 $77,581 6.52 17 2.2% -1.0% 0.2% 195 -76 Source: JobsEQ®

Major Occupations (Southwest Indiana Labor Shed)
Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Change over the Last Year Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2016q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages1 SW IN Labor Shed SW IN USA Current Online Job Ads2 Total Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Office and Administrative Support 40,575 $33,200 445 1.1% 1.4% 1,138 8,976 -779 -0.2% Production 40,091 $36,300 43 0.1% -0.3% 459 10,218 -3,046 -0.8% Sales and Related 29,541 $33,600 225 0.8% 1.5% 0.5% 1,834 9,665 698 0.2% Food Preparation and Serving Related 25,778 $20,600 -26 -0.1% 0.4% 2.2% 830 9,734 504 Transportation and Material Moving 25,413 $34,000 -130 -0.5% 1.8% 1,049 6,642 126 0.0% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 19,952 $69,400 467 2.4% 2.1% 902 4,367 2,102 1.0% Management 17,242 $89,000 -46 0.9% 654 5,784 -43 Construction and Extraction 15,546 $45,900 -379 -2.4% -3.1% 257 2,877 986 0.6% Education, Training, and Library 15,370 $45,800 -207 -1.3% -1.1% 214 3,281 441 0.3% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 14,696 $43,800 -123 -0.9% 565 3,657 376 Building, Grounds Cleaning & Mainten. 10,412 $25,400 -56 1.3% 391 2,340 270 Personal Care and Service 10,283 $22,000 47 2.0% 236 2,840 993 Business and Financial Operations 10,234 $59,500 7 437 346 Healthcare Support 8,954 $27,900 133 327 1,988 1,366 Architecture and Engineering 5,219 $73,000 -58 -0.6% 179 1,328 -192 -0.4% Community and Social Service 4,773 $40,500 137 3.0% 4.0% 1.9% 181 1,066 380 Protective Service 4,690 76 1.6% 1.2% 100 1,098 49 Computer and Mathematical 3,939 $65,900 -69 -1.7% -0.7% 356 588 238 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, Media 3,713 $38,000 -47 122 1,290 -100 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 1,800 $26,100 83 4.9% 8.0% 25 720 -147 Life, Physical, and Social Science 1,794 $63,800 91 558 24 Legal 1,499 $82,600 -4 0.7% 14 311 40 Total - All Occupations 311,514 $41,300 542 10,361 81,668 4,632 Source: JobsEQ® Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. Exported on: Thursday, September 14, :14 AM

Southwest Indiana Labor Shed: Top 20 Occupations
Current Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages1 Current Online Job Ads2 Total Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Retail Salespersons 9,565 $25,500 638 3,491 618 0.6% Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers 7,788 $18,300 259 2,560 392 0.5% Team Assemblers 7,759 $36,600 9 1,805 -267 -0.3% Registered Nurses 7,036 $55,500 258 1,611 641 0.9% Cashiers 6,884 $19,600 88 2,993 6 0.0% Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 6,714 $30,400 164 2,143 107 0.2% Office Clerks, General 5,779 $29,400 67 1,237 -99 -0.2% Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 5,191 $42,600 599 957 104 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids/Housekeeping 4,906 $25,800 187 980 116 Waiters and Waitresses 4,648 $20,400 68 2,259 -70 General and Operations Managers 4,372 $89,800 62 1,141 Secretaries & Admin Assist, Ex Legal, Medical, Exec 3,965 $30,700 113 414 -78 Nursing Assistants 3,903 $25,100 861 370 Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 3,898 $26,500 216 1,338 186 Customer Service Representatives 3,878 $33,100 212 1,007 168 0.4% First-Line Supervisors Production & Operating Workers 3,341 $56,600 129 591 -207 -0.6% Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 3,297 $34,300 59 296 -410 -1.3% First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 3,262 $38,300 554 895 120 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,185 $37,300 238 833 -24 -0.1% Personal Care Aides 3,086 $20,100 69 345 644 1.9% Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2017Q2 unless noted otherwise 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment

Preparing for Firm Expansions

Resin and Synthetic Rubber Manufacturing, Firm 100 Employees (Top Ten Occupations)
Title New Employ-er Demand Empl (Place of Residence)1 Un-empl1 Regional Avg Wage2 National Avg Wage2 Empl Ex-tended Unempl Extended Potential Candidate / Opening Ratio Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 13 460 7 $63,100 $50,300 635 14 36 Chemical Plant and System Operators 171 3 $58,500 $59,400 1,306 35 25 Extruding and Forming Machine Setters 4 134 $34,000 $35,400 740 38 First-Line Supervisors Production/Operating Workers 3,137 53 $56,600 $61,400 2,186 41 797 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 1,637 37 $47,700 $51,900 5,725 152 419 Mixing/Blending Machine Setters, Operators, Tenders 585 18 $40,200 $37,600 1,822 57 151 Chemical Engineers 87 2 $106,100 $105,400 491 9 30 Chemical Technicians 242 5 $51,100 $49,800 468 12 82 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 1,899 74 $35,500 $40,300 4,565 244 658 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,101 86 $37,300 $39,400 509 1,062 Source: JobsEQ® 1. Occupation employment and unemployment are place-of-residence data--that is, referring to workers who reside in the named locality. 2. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and represent the average for all Covered Employment

Upskill Workers for Chemical Equipment Operators

Resin and Synthetic Rubber Manufacturing, Firm 100 Employees (Top Ten Occupations)
Title New Employ-er Demand Empl (Place of Residence)1 Un-empl1 Regional Avg Wage2 National Avg Wage2 Empl Ex-tended Unempl Extended Potential Candidate / Opening Ratio Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 13 460 7 $63,100 $50,300 635 14 36 Chemical Plant and System Operators 171 3 $58,500 $59,400 1,306 35 25 Extruding and Forming Machine Setters 4 134 $34,000 $35,400 740 38 First-Line Supervisors Production/Operating Workers 3,137 53 $56,600 $61,400 2,186 41 797 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 1,637 37 $47,700 $51,900 5,725 152 419 Mixing/Blending Machine Setters, Operators, Tenders 585 18 $40,200 $37,600 1,822 57 151 Chemical Engineers 87 2 $106,100 $105,400 491 9 30 Chemical Technicians 242 5 $51,100 $49,800 468 12 82 Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 1,899 74 $35,500 $40,300 4,565 244 658 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 3,101 86 $37,300 $39,400 509 1,062 Source: JobsEQ® 1. Occupation employment and unemployment are place-of-residence data--that is, referring to workers who reside in the named locality. 2. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and represent the average for all Covered Employment

Consider Alignment with Regional Postsecondary Programs: Chemical Engineers

Conclusions National economy is growing
No signs of imbalances Expansions don’t die of old age Southwest Indiana growing slower than the nation Largest sector: Education/health care Provides consistent/stable growth Job postings and forecasts point to many opportunities for residents 2nd largest sector: Manufacturing Sensitive to business cycle but provides high wages Many industries forecast to decline but many openings due to retirements The talent and skills of your workers are your region’s greatest asset Data can take you to a potential solution—it takes leadership to transform a strategy into action

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