1. Oil and Non-Oil Monarchies in the MENA
Prof. M. Cammett
POLS1270
Feb. 16, 2012

2. MENA Monarchies: Similarities & Differences
Commonalities?
Royal families
Relative inclusiveness, freedom of expression (esp. non-oil)
Differences
Oil wealth
Role of royals in government
Why does this matter? What’s at stake?
Yet variation in inclusiveness of opposition
And Variation in freedom of the press

3. World Development Indicators (2008)
Oil Wealth in the MENA
Oil Rents/GDP
World Development Indicators (2008)

4. BUT, the higher income Gulf oil countries score especially poorly on “voice and accountability.”
Voice and Accountability in the MENA (World Governance Indicators, World Bank 2009)

5. Recap: Political Rights and Civil Liberties in the MENA Source: Freedom House (2012)
Political Rights and Civil Liberties are measured on a one-to-seven scale, with one representing the highest degree of Freedom and seven the lowest.
Democracies
Republics
Monarchies

6. Comparative Analysis of MENA Monarchies: Case Selection
Oil monarchies: Kuwait v. Saudi Arabia v.
Non-oil monarchies: Jordan (& Morocco)
 Why these cases?
Axes of comparison:
- Origins of state/nation
- Political development (through 2010)
- Methods of rule/control & nature of opposition

7. Political Origins: Kuwait & Saudi Arabia
1744: Alliance b/t al-Saud & al-Wahhab
1902+: Abdulaziz al-Saud led conquests of Arabian peninsula
1912: Took Hejaz from Hashemites
1932: Saudi Arabia established
1938: Discovery of oil
 Effects on state-building (esp. post 1973)
Kuwait:
18th cen.: Merchant elites  Al-Sabah Family
1930s: Discovery of oil
 Effects on state-building
1938: Majlis established
Struggles between al-Sabah & elite families

8. Political Origins: Jordan
Who is “Jordanian”? The “artificiality” of Jordan & the nation-building project:
Mansaf, the “national” dish
Jordan First Campaign
Legacies of colonial boundary making: The East Bank/West Bank Cleavage
Palestinian-Transjordanian relations:
1948 War  Control WB, refugees
1967 War  Refugees
1970: Black September
1988: Renunciation of claims to WB
Implications for Palestinian citizenship?
Throne Day
1999

9. Political Development: Kuwaiti Exceptionalism
Origins: Al-Sabah - elite relations
External threats
How is Kuwait an exception?
In what ways, is it not?

10. Political Development: Who Rules in Saudi Arabia?
Family Council (2000)
Allegiance Commission (2006)

11. Jordan: State Building and Political Development
State-building under King Hussein (1950s-1999)
1952 Constitution
Structure of government?
Where does power lie?
1989 political opening
Why?
What changed and what stayed the same?
1994 peace treaty with Israel
 Tolerance for dissent declined

12. Methods of Rule How to maintain power? The menu of options: Coercion
Patronage
Cooptation
Ideology
Civil society & opposition groups

13. Kuwait: Methods of Political Control & Societal Responses
Al-Sabah v. society
Manipulation of electoral rules, etc.
Suspensions of parliament
Oil and political control
Civil society: The diwaniyya
Islamists in parliament

14. Saudi Arabia: Why and how the longevity of Saudi rule?
Major mechanisms:
Patronage/distribution
(Yet poverty and inequality in the world’s largest oil exporter!)
Penetration of society
Coercion
Legitimating ideology
Political liberalization?
Why?
What? (Early 1990s, 2005+)
The Saudi public sphere
Islamists and state-ulama relations

15. Jordan: A “liberal” MENA monarchy?
Major opposition groups
Leftists
Islamists  Islamic Action Front (IAF)
Electoral dynamics in a “hybrid” regime
1989: IAF victory
1993: The regime wises up  electoral engineering
1997: IAF boycott  pro-regime parliament
2003: Return of IAF (sort of)
2007: Rigged? The Hamas effect?
How much would IAF win in free elections?
The image of the monarchy at home v. abroad

16. Conclusion Variation across oil monarchies: Kuwait v. Saudi Arabia
Why Kuwaiti “exceptionalism”?
Variation across oil & non-oil monarchies
Why comparative openness of non-oil monarchies?