1. Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study by EnerNex Corporation Mathias Westerholm 18.11.2016

2. Contents Introduction Focus area Wind scenarios
Transmission requirements
Operational impacts and reserve requirements
Carbon sensitivity
All in all, a lot of graphs and results

3. Introduction Study began in 2007 Revised in 2011
Load data from
Wind profiles from
Studies the Eastern Interconnection in 2024
The study team began by modelling winf resources in a large part of the Eastern Interconnection and finished by conducting a detailed wind integration study and top-down transmission analysis.

4. Scope of the study

5. Study methodology 1) Wind plant output data development
2) Transmission requirement analysis
3) Wind integration analysis
EWITS project consisted of three major tasks
Use wind data and load data together, to capture correlations
Handful of future snapshots as it could be in 2024
Economic considerations, also considered reliability

6. Focus area
Current transmission expansion planning is based on a decision-making process that starts with the present and looks forward through time. The existing bulk power grid in the United States is the result of such a bottom-up approach.
These top down methods tend to create designs with more transmission than bottom-up methods. The primary reason is that the total economic potential of increasing the economic efficiency of the generation fleet—including wind generation in the Eastern Interconnection—is used to justify transmission expansion

7. Wind profile

8. Scenarios for 2024
4 scenarious of projected electricity requirements in 2024
3 with 20% penetration
1 with 30% penetration
Based on the Eastern Wind Data Study
2004, 2005, 2006
High spatial (2-kilometer) and temporal (hourly and 10-minute) resoultion
To reach 20% target, tenfold increase of todays wind power generation MW
30% target, MW

9. The four scenarios

10. Wind capacity Scenario 1

11. Wind capacity Scenario 4

12. Current situation
Around 5%

13. Wind modelling
Numerical methods were used, also known as mesoscale models,
Numerical simulations together with observational data sets create an four-dimensional gridded wind speed data set
Hundreds of wind plants used

14. Transmission requirement
Locate wind generation across the interconnection, determine needed additional nonwind capacity to ensure reliability in 2024
No new transmission was considered at this stage (constrained case)
Identify energy sources and sinks
Assumption capacity value of 20%
Gives a rough estimate of a budget for transmission immprovement

15. Case no new transmission and Scenario 2 wind installations
Electricity price
Case no new transmission and Scenario 2 wind installations

16. New transmission needed

17. New transmission for Scenario 1

18. Costs of new transmission

19. Conclusions about transmission
800-kV HVDC and EHV AC lines are preferred because of the volumes of energy that need to be transported and the long distances
Significant wind generation can be included

20. Operational impacts Production-cost model
Hourly power system operational simulations with the alternatives and the load data from
The model takes the wind generation at each injection bus (closest transmission connection to the wind plant) and dispatches accordingly nonwind generation

21. Reserve requirements Operating reserves increased
Contingency reserves not affected
Spinning reseves increased
Need for regulation dramatically increased

22. Spinning reserves

23. Regulating reserve

24. Reserve conclusions
The fastest changes in balancing area demand—on time scales from a few to tens of seconds—are dominated by load, even with very large amounts of wind generation.
Regulating reserve requirements are driven by errors in short-term (e.g., 10 to 20 minutes ahead) wind generation forecasts

25. Production cost modeling
Because of its low dispatch price, wind generation will decrease local marginal prices
Addition of transmission equalizes the local marginal prices
Offshore wind has more effect on price in eastern load centers because of its proximity to large load centers, otherwise served by generation with high costs

26. Production cost of electricity

27. Wind integration costs

28. Annualized total costs

29. Carbon sensitivity
What happens if a price of carbon emissions is set at $100/MWh?

30. Effect on new generation
CC = combined cycle; CT = combustion turbine; DR = demand response; IGCC = integrated gas combined cycle; IGCC/Seq = integrated gas combined cycle with sequestration; CC/Seq = combined cycle with sequestration; RET Coal = coal plant retirements; Replacement CC = replacement combined cycle Figure13. Generation expansion by scenario, including the carbon sensitivity case
Fossil fuel decrease, nuclear up expansion, CC generation increase for managing variability

31. Effect on price
Comparison of generation-weighted LMP by region for Scenario 2 and carbon sensitivity case

32. Carbon emissions from different scenarios

33. Present value of accumulated costs

34. Uncertainties Smart grid implications and demand responsiveness
Charging of PHEVs
Optimization with high amounts of wind
Fuel sensitivity
Energy storage