1. Number US Bank Failures
Total No. of
Year
Failed banks
GA portion
2007 3 1
2008 25 5
2009
140
2010
157 21
2011 92 23
2012 51 10
2013 24 2
FDIC usually closes banks on Fridays. Why?
10/4

2. Market Rate of Interest Rate
Market rate of interest performs an allocative function by assuring
SSUs rate will be low enough so someone will borrow from them
DSUs rate will be high enough so someone will lend to them.

3. Production Opportunities
In addition to Fed affecting the Fed Fund rate, interest rates are affected by business opportunities (production opportunities, in book).
The lower the rate of interest, the greater the number of business ventures that should be profitable.

4. Loanable Funds Sources of loanable funds consumer savings
business savings
local/state/federal government surpluses
central bank action that increases money supply
Uses for loanable funds
consumer credit purchases
business investment
state/local/federal government deficits

5. Nominal vs. Real Rate of Interest
Nominal interest rate is the observed rate (the market rate).
Real rate of interest is nominal rate minus inflation.
Prior to 8 years ago, real rate of interest had historically been between about 2% and 4%.

6. Fisher Equation i nominal rate of interest
r real rate of interest (i.e., rental rate)
expected rate of inflation.
Regular Fisher equation
Exact Fisher equation
The three terms see to it that lender gets compensated for:
rental of purchasing power
anticipated loss of purchasing power on the principal
anticipated loss of purchasing power on the interest

7. Example 1
Willing to lend $3 billion to a company going through a difficult time for rental rate of 10% plus full protection against inflation which is forecast at 4%. Boss says figure out interest rate to charge. What is difference between regular and exact?
10/8

8. Ex ante vs. Ex post
ex ante means based upon anticipated effects (i.e., what lies ahead)
here, we assume r and forecast (e is expected)
ex post means based upon analysis of past performance (i.e., what lies behind)
here, we know both i and (a is actual)

9. Other Forms of Fisher Equations
regular for ex ante use: exact for ex ante use:
regular for ex post use: exact for ex post use:

10. Example 2
Suppose a loan were set up with a nominal interest rate of 12%. What would be exact real rate of return if inflation turned out to be 4%?

11. When Inflation Deviates From Anticipated
Inflation greater than anticipated: benefits borrowers, Results in an unintended transfer of PP from lender to borrower.
Inflation less than anticipated: benefits lenders. Results in an unintended transfer of PP from borrower to lender.
So what is Fisher Effect? …that embedded in nominal interest rates are inflation expectations.