1. The 2016 Election
Update

2. The Presidential Race

3. Nov. 6 Win Likelihood - 538
Clinton
67.9%
Trump
32.0%

4. By the Numbers to Win

5. No Toss Ups Electoral Map
AZ - Trump
FL - Clinton
GA - Trump
IA - Trump
ME2 - Trump
MO - Trump
NC - Clinton
NV - Clinton
OH - Clinton
PA - Clinton
WI - Clinton
* IA, GA, and NC have been changing frequently.

6. Vox Predictions

7. The Math Behind Vox Clinton starts with a bloc of 201 electoral votes.
Hold on to Wisconsin and Michigan in the Rust Belt.
Win Colorado and Virginia, which have growing nonwhite populations but also lots of educated white voters, two groups Trump has been struggling with.
Finally, win New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to get over the top.
Ohio and Florida?
201
= 227
= 249
= 273 electoral votes

8. Post-Convention Clinton Lead 6 to 12%
State
Clinton’s Present Lead
Colorado*
11.3%
New Hampshire*
7.7%
Michigan*
7.3%
Pennsylvania*
6.5%
Virginia*
5.0%
Wisconsin*
5.3%

9. Post-Convention Clinton Lead 2 to 3%
State
Clinton’s Present Lead
Nevada
2.3%
Florida--
2.1%
Iowa
-0.8%
North Carolina
1.2%
Ohio--
3.3%

10. Post-Convention Trump Lead 1 to 3%
State
Trump’s Present Lead
Arizona
2.7%
Georgia
1.6%
South Carolina
3.0%

11. Post-convention (Aug 9)
What’s Happening
Post-convention (Aug 9)
Today
Clinton
43.9%, +8%
45.9%, +3.0%
Trump
36.3%
42.9%

12. Clinton Challenges Clinton had an 8pt lead post-convention.
She narrowed the gap in traditionally Red states.
TX, UT, AZ, GA, MS, and SC
Clinton lost her strong lead, but Trump has only gained slightly.
Traditional Rs are coming home but this has had a minor electoral impact thus far.

13. Trump Challenges
Moderate Rs and whites with college degrees hold an unfavorable view of Trump.
Romney had a +14% lead among college educated whites. Currently, Clinton holds a +14% lead among these same voters.
This plays out in swing states - VA, NH, NC, GA, CO, FL, and PA - where Clinton still maintains small leads.

14. What’s Happening Clinton Trump Johnson & Stein 18-34 37% 28% 29%
Pre-convention
Post-convention
Increase
Gary Johnson
10%
11% +1
Jill Stein 4% 5%
Undecided 6% 8% +2

15. Collateral Impact

16. Unfavorability Ratings
Clinton
55.1% Unfavorable
Trump
59.1% Unfavorable
*Data from RCP Average, 8/24-9/01

17. Historic Unfavorable Ratings
Prior to 2016, the highest unfavorable rating was 7%.
35% of the public does not like
either candidate.

18. Result: Obama’s Job Approval Ratings

19. Approval Crossover Correlates with Election Environment
Event
Approve
Disapprove
Inauguration
67%
13%
Election Day 2010
45%
50%
Election Day 2012
47%
Election Day 2014
42%
53%
March 6th, 2016
48%
March 7th, 2016
47.80%
March 8th, 2016
48.40%
47.40%
Present
50.5%
45.9%

20. Voter Demographics Impact Outcomes

21. Clinton v. Obama Margins
This shows pro-democratic shifts since 2012.
The greatest shift has been among Catholic voters.
Not pictured: +25 point shift is matched by white, college-educated women.

22. Catholic Voters
In the 2012 exit polls, Catholics comprised of 25% of the voting electorate.
Public Religion Research Institute
Clinton leading by 27% among Catholics
61%
34%

23. Reasons Catholics Reject Trump
The Catholic vote matters.
Split: 40% vote Democrat; 40% vote Republican
20% helps to decide the vote
The more one attends church the less likely they are to vote for Trump.
Trump is 27% behind where Romney was in 2012 with Catholic voters.
Rationales why:
Trump’s perceived morals
Trump’s secular background
Pope Francis
Belief that Trump is not truly pro-life
A large population of church-going Catholics are children of immigrants

24. In 2012, women were 53% of the voting electorate.
Votes by Gender
In 2012, women were 53% of the voting electorate.
Clinton has a +19 margin on Trump from female voters.

25. College-Educated White Voters
40-45% of state’s population holds a bachelor’s degree+
State
Clinton’s Polling Margin CA
+22.2 NJ
+13.3 CO
+11.3
35-40% of state’s population holds a bachelor’s degree+
State
Clinton’s Polling Margin NY
+19.3 VA
+5.0
U.S. Avg: 33%
Clinton leads +3.0 nationally

26. 30-35% of state’s population holds a bachelor’s degree+
Clinton’s Polling Margin NH
+7.7 FL
+2.1 NC
+1.2 GA
-1.6 AZ
-2.7 SC
-3.0 KS
-8.0 UT
-10.0

27. 25-30% of state’s population holds a bachelor’s degree+
Clinton’s Polling Margin MI
+7.3 PA
+6.5 WI
+5.3 NV
+2.3 IA
-0.8 MO
-3.0

28. Election 2016 Polling Average

29. Battleground States’ Polling Numbers

30. Battlegrounds Continued
Clinton is currently leading all battlegrounds except IA, GA, MO, and AZ.

31. Past Elections 2004 Bush won by 3 million votes, 50.7%, +2.4%
Electoral votes: 286 R v. 251 D
2008
Obama won by 9.6 million votes, 52.9%, +5.8%
Electoral votes: 365 D v. 173 R
2012
Obama won by 5 million votes, 51.1%, +2.2%
Electoral votes: 332 D v. 206 R

32. A Look at Congressional Races
Congressional Republican seats are at risk because of Trump’s performance

33. Battle for The Senate 2016

34. Current Senate Breakdown
46 Democrats
54 Republicans
45 Democrats
1 Independent
54 Republicans

35. For Democrats to Gain Control
To gain control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up 4 seats if Hillary Clinton is elected or 5 seats if Donald Trump is elected.

36. Senate Seats in Play 34 Seats Total
Democrats:
Nevada
Republicans:
Arizona
Florida
Indiana
Missouri
Wisconsin
34 Seats
Total
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Illinois

37. Toss Up Senate Seat Opponents
State
Current
Republican
Democrat
Arizona R
John McCain <
Ann Kirkpatrick
Florida
Marco Rubio <
Patrick Murphy
Indiana
Open - R
Todd Young
Evan Bayh <
Missouri
Roy Blunt <
Jason Kander
Nevada
Open - D
Joe Heck =
Catherine Cortez Masto =
New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte
Maggie Hassan <
North Carolina
Richard Burr <
Deborah Ross
Ohio
Rob Portman <
Ted Strickland
Pennsylvania
Patrick Toomey
Katie McGinty <
Wisconsin
Ron Johnson
Russ Feingold <
Illinois
Mark Kirk
Tammy Duckworth<

38. No Toss Ups Numbers

39. The House - 218 for Control Current: Democrats 186 Republicans 247
Vacancies 2
Projections:
Democrats 187
Republicans 226
Toss up 22
Toss ups - 6 Ds, 16 Rs
Leans - 3 Ds, 15 Rs

40. 2016 Generic Congressional Vote

41. House Toss Ups CA = 6 New York = 6 Florida = 5
AZ-01 OPEN (D)
FL-18 OPEN (D)
NY-03 OPEN (D)
CA-25 Knight (R)
CO-06 Coffman (R)
FL-26 Curbelo (R)
IL-10 Dold (R)
IA-03 Young (R)
ME-02 Poliquin (R)
NV-03 OPEN (R)
NH-01 Guinta (R)
NY-01 Zeldin (R)
NY-19 OPEN (R)
NY-22 OPEN (R)
NY-24 Katko (R)
PA-08 OPEN (R)
TX-23 Hurd (R)
UT-04 Love (R)
WI-08 OPEN

42. House Leans Lean Democratic Lean Republican CA-07 Bera AZ-02 McSally
FL-13 Jolly
CA-10 Denham
IA-01 Blum
Va-21 Valadao
MN-02 OPEN
CO-03 Tipton
MN-08 Nolan
FL-07 Mica
NE-02 Ashford
MI-01 OPEN
NV-04 Hardy
MI-07 Walberg
MN-03 Paulsen
NJ-05 Garrett
NY-23 Reed
VA-10 Comstock

43. House Likelys Likely Democratic Likely Republican AZ-09 Sinema
AK-AL Young
MT-AL Zinke
CA-24 OPEN
CA-49 Issa
NY-21 Stefanik
CA-52 OPEN
FL-02 OPEN
PA-06 Costello
FL-10 OPEN
FL-27 Ros-Lehtinen
PA-16 OPEN
MD-06 Delaney
IL-12 Bost
VA-05 OPEN
VA-04 OPEN
MI-11 Trott
WA-08 Reichert

44. Potential Game Changers
The Debates
Clinton Scandal
Trump Stumbles
Clinton Ground Game