1. Energy Planning and Modelling
Wolfgang Eichhammer
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)
TUEWAS Energy Efficiency Working Group Workshop Chongqing/China 17 – 20 December 2012
Working Group Meeting 18 December 2012

2. Overview
What should be an ideal energy mix, integrating energy efficiency and renewable energies?
Energy modelling at macro level (Overall economy) as well as at micro level (industrial setups)
Importance of energy planning and energy mix modelling for efficient economies

3. Part I What should be an ideal energy mix, integrating energy efficiency and renewable energies?
An ideal energy mix is vision with a concrete policy strategy behind and highly developed analytical tools to underpin the policy strategy.

4. How may the energy efficiency and renewables mix look like in the EU in 2050?
December 2011: EU Energy Roadmap 2050 published which sets the scene for the European energy and climate policy up to 2050
All sectors need to contribute to the target of 85% GHG emission reduction compared to 1990 (93-99 % for the power sector).
Discussion around the forthcoming Directive for Energy Efficiency
Role of energy efficiency insufficiently addressed in detail  EU-wide study on Energy Efficiency Wedges for the German Environment Ministry by Fraunhofer ISI up to ( roadmap_315192_ei.php)

5. + 550 TWh net electricity demand
Motivation: The 2020 policy frame for energy efficiency needs to fit longterm requirements
Electricity in 2050 most likely most important energy carrier
Energy efficiency has a strong impact on how radically the electricity sector needs to be adapted  EU-wide study on (nearly) 100% renewables in the power sector in 2050 by Fraunhofer ISI (
+ 550 TWh net electricity demand

6. Potential presentation via factsheets
Technical energy saving potential
Cost curve on EU level
General information
Technology information
Energy efficiency technologies
Calculation methodology

7. Sectoral energy savings are assigned to specific end-uses and efficiency technologies
Exemplary results: final energy saving potential by branch in the transport sector

8. European final energy demand can be more than halved by the year 2050.
2008
2030
2050
Reference
[Mtoe]
1161
1216
1183
Potential -
502
671
Reduction
[%]
-41%
-57%

9. Primary energy saving potential
Overall primary energy saving potential in 2050 equals 118 percent of all EU’s energy imports in the year 2008
Primary energy saving potential

10. A stabilisation of the European electricity demand on today’s level is feasible
Assumptions
Reference demand is based on PRIMES extrapolation
nearly 70 TWh for electric heat pumps in the households and tertiary sector (approx. 12% of all European households)
60 TWh for about 23 million electric vehicles (8 percent of the car stock)
In contrast: the electrification of 66% of all passenger cars would require approx. 260 TWh additionally
EU27, [TWh]
2020
2030
2050
PRIMES baseline
3,480
3,803
3,969
Remaining load
3,020
3,102
2,485
Savings
13%
18%
37%

11. Benefits and costs of economic and technical energy saving potentials

12. (Almost) 100% renewable energy in the electricity sector by 2050

13. Enabling technologies
Grids
Flexible generation
Energy efficiency

14. Introduction to the scenario Quick facts
Main goals of the study
Detailed picture of possible developments in the electricity sector with low carbon emissions
Analyzing the co-benefits of energy efficiency and RES in one scenario
Main parameters
Region: EU 27 +2
CO2 emissions in 2050: 5% of 1990 level
No new CCS and nuclear
RES-E share >90%
Low electricity demand (high efficiency), similar to the one today (~3,500 TWh in 2050)

15. Scenario Approach

16. Introduction to the scenario Approach
Photovoltaics
Hourly satellite weather data for for several hundred points
Model takes into account module types, orientation, temperature, ...
Wind power
Data for over 3,000 weather stations for
Model takes into account turbine types, roughness lengths, air density, ...

17. Introduction to the scenario Results
Scenario reaches a RES-share of 95 %
~ 50 % Wind power
~ 10 % photovoltaics
Over 60% fluctuating generation
Only a small share of the generation is dispatchable
How can this system be stable and reliable?
What are the main enablers?

18. Enabling technologies Hourly dispatch, Germany 2050, week 42

19. Enabling technologies Electricity grids
NTC capacity increases from currently 56 GW to 252 GW in 2050.
 increase by factor 4.5

20. Enabling technologies Electricity grids
High RES-E shares call for higher European integration
Energy surplus will have to be transported over larges distances.
Demand will often be met by generation from non-national sources (RES-E and conventional power).
Open questions
Can the grids be developed fast enough?
Is this higher level of co-operation politically possible?
Power flows per year between countries

21. Enabling technologies Dispatchable generation

22. Enabling technologies Dispatchable generation
Flexible generation has to be increased
Biomass, biogas and hydropower are needed to provide flexible, carbon neutral generation
The utilization of gas power plants will decrease despite the growth of installed capacity
Open questions
Which market design generates the necessary security for investors?
How much biomass will really be available in the power sector?
Installed capacity of dispatchable generation units

23. Enabling technologies Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency is a key measure as it:
Decreases total system costs
Decreases costs per MWh
For meeting a higher demand , the supply portfolio becomes more difficult to handle.
Higher demand  higher shares of fluctuating generation  higher system integration costs
Open questions
How can energy efficiency (finally) be achieved?

24. Part II Energy modelling at macro level (Overall economy) as well as at micro level (industrial setups)

25. Modell Families at Fraunhofer ISI: Technology-based Analyses, sectoral and Macro-economic Analyses
Macro-economic Models - General Equilibrium Model (DYE-CLIP)
- Econometric Model(ASTRA (N))
Micro-Macro-Bridge
Energy demand/ Projections (FORECAST platform: ISI-Industry, Tertiary, Households)/Transport
Energy system models
Optimisation (Balmorel)
Multi-Agent-Simulation (PowerACE, ResInvest)
CO2-Certificatemodel
(ClimStrat, Short-term prognosis)
Wind-
simulation-
model
E-Mobily Models
GIS

26. Part III Importance of energy planning and energy mix modelling for efficient economies

27. Scenario Analysis Electricity System EUMENA 2050
Optimal path for the electricity sector in the EUMENA region up to 2050
Recommendation of suitable policy instruments for the implementation of the path to 2050
Mutual advantages of an interlinked system of the EUMENA region based on renewable energy sources:
CO2-Target of 95% in the electricity sector and savings of €30/MWh imported electricity.
MENA countries can build up in parallel their own electricity supply system with renewables and lower CO2-emissions from the electricity sector by 50% despite a massive increase in demand.
MENA countries can build up an expert industry in the order of 63 Billion €.

28. Case studies Modelling Structure of the analysis Green-X
Policy recommendations
Current and potential future RES policy development in MENA
Power ACE
Extended GIS Analysis
Possible European RES policy pathways
Assessment of future regulatory compatibility
Support design
Support cost
Cost-potential data (incl. geographic reference)
Reference electricity prices
RES deployment & cost

29. Design elements Eligibility of plants Support level adjustment
Support scheme
Eligibility of plants
Support level adjustment
Cost containment mechanism
Type of premium
Cap / Floor
Minimum/ Maximum prices
Banking/ Borrowing
Obliged Party
Complementary Instruments
Support differentiation
Cost burden of support
Duration of support
Flow of support
Eligibility of technologies
General
Premium
Quota

30. Additional features after first scenario study:
Modelling Approach
Optimization of the electricity sector:
Powerplant construction and dispatch
Interconnectors between countries
RES-E generation
PV, Wind onshore, Wind offshore, CSP
Construction and dispatch of storages
Limited CO2 emissions
Year: 2050, Time period: 8760 h
Meterological Reference dataset: 2007
Hydro, Biomass, “Others” are fixed:
“Energy Road Map”
National Renewable Energy Action Plans are taken into account
Dii-Hydro data
Additional Gasturbines: 10% of national peak load
Additional features after first scenario study:
High temporal resolution for entire year
High level of detail in RES-Potential Curves
Improved datasets
Additional cost parameters can be added
3/295

31. Grid Length
18/295

32. Morocco, Calender Week 32 (2050)

33. Saudi Arabia, Calender Week 48 (2050)