1. Research and Interventions
The Secondary Continuum— Keeping 6th-12th g Students On Track to Graduation
Research and Interventions
Ruth Curran Neild, Johns Hopkins University
Liza Herzog, Philadelphia Education Fund
May 25, 2007
Presented to the 4th Annual Middle Grades Matter Conference

3. Who drops out? 1. Students with middle grades signals
2. Students with ninth grade signals
3. Students without middle grades or ninth grade signals

4. Data scan (8th grade on) Attendance Test scores Report card grades
Special education and ELL status
Gender
Age
Race/ethnic background

5. 75% threshold – why?
Choosing a “strong signal” – students who are at highest risk of dropping out
By not making the net too broad, scarce resources can be targeted at those students who are greatest risk

6. Students with middle grades “signals”
Three factors gave students at least a 75% probability of dropping out:
1. Failing math in 8th grade
2. Failing English in 8th grade
3. Attending less than 80% of the time

7. When they got to high school…
20% had effectively dropped out by the end of the first year of high school
50% had effectively dropped out by the end of the third year in high school

8. Most left high school with few credits
One-third were never promoted beyond 9th grade
More than half were not promoted beyond 10th grade

9. Some students were sending these signals
54% of the eventual dropouts sent one or more of these signals in 8th grade
Some students were sending these signals
as early as 6th grade

10. Did not have an 8th grade risk factor:
Had an 8th grade
“risk factor”
Did not have an 8th grade risk factor:
Passed 8th grade English
Passed 8th grade Math
Attended at least 80% of the time

11. Students with 9th grade “signals”
Three factors gave students at least a 75% probability of dropping out:
1. Earning fewer than 2 credits 2. Not being promoted to 10th grade
3. Attending less than 70% of the time

12. 80% of the dropouts sent one or more of these signals in 8th or 9th grade

13. Had an 8th grade “risk factor” Had a 9th grade “risk factor”
Did not have an 8th or 9th grade
risk factor:
Passed 8th grade English
Passed 8th grade Math
At least 80% attendance, 8th grade
Promoted to 10th grade “on-time”
At least 70% attendance, 9th grade
Had a 9th grade
“risk factor”

14. It’s really hard to predict who will drop out among students who make it to 10th grade without giving earlier “signals”

15. Prior Research
In Philadelphia, students who entered high school 2+ years below grade level have a 50/50 chance of on-time promotion to the 10th grade
Less than 20% of ninth grade repeaters graduate
What do we know about a student’s chances to succeed in high school and beyond? As Ruth talked about, we know that kids who are giving off signals in the 8th and 9th grade are at high risk of dropping out. From prior studies, we know that students who leave 8th grade with low literacy or math levels have about as good a chance of moving up to the 10th grade with their peers as they do repeating their 9th grade year. As you know, if a student repeats a grade, her outlook only gets worse, with just about a fifth of 9th g repeaters in Philadelphia ultimately graduating.

16. Prior Research (cont.)
Student attendance, behavior and effort all had independent impacts on achievement gains in the middle grades
Adolescence and concentrated poverty have negative impacts on attendance, behavior and effort
We also know that the onset of adolescence, concentrated poverty, and a changing school environment (moving from primary into the middle grades), taken together, team up to significantly impact achievement later on. Which lead us to wonder, what about those kids who give off signals even earlier?

17. Findings: 4 Powerful 6th Grade Predictors of ‘Falling Off Track’
Attending school <80% of the time
Receiving a poor final behavior mark
Failing Math
Failing English
What we found was that as early as the 6th grade, there were 4 things that were highly predictive of kids dropping out later on. As Ruth mentioned, highly predictive here means that 75% or more students with each indicator did not graduate within 5 yrs. We emerged with what we call the Big Four… <80% att., earning a poor final behavior mark, failing math or failing English in the 6th g. We’ve replicated this research in other places—Boston, Indianapolis, Texas, North Carolina, New York—each city or state will sets its own cut point to reach the hi-yield floor. In other words, 80% attendance is not set in stone… different cities will have different cut points, relative to their student population.

18. a 10% chance of graduating on time
These 6th Graders Account for 40% of SDP Students Who Will Not Graduate
6th graders who do not attend regularly, receive poor behavior marks, or fail math or English have no more than
a 10% chance of graduating on time
a 20% chance of graduating one year late
As you can see, kids with these Big Four risk factors have a very low likelihood of completing HS with their class.

19. Implications
As early as the 6th g., we can identify a significant % of students who will ultimately leave school without graduating
Before they drop out, these students will have multiple years of high course failure, poor behavior, and weak attendance
This will impact not only the students themselves but the schools they attend
Why does this matter? Because we can identify large numbers of kids with specific needs who are sure to fall off-track to graduation. In the meantime, we see years of adverse outcomes.

20. Implications (cont.)
Different groups of students will need different supports
6th grade students needing additional supports can easily reach 50 to 100 students per school
What’s new is that we’re able to identify significant numbers of students here in Philadelphia who fall of the graduation track in different but in conceptually identifiable ways. It’s important to note that in the 6th grade, these kids often have a single risk factor that can compound by the time they reach high school. The sixth grade can be an overlooked year—historically, a school’s focus simply hasn’t been there. Some teachers we spoke with this year told us that ‘angelic’ 5th graders can, upon reaching the 6th g., develop different personalities altogether. There’s a prevailing hope that youngsters will “grow out of it,” which, as we’ve shown, typically doesn’t happen.

21. How to Re-Envision Schools so that Students Stay on Track to Graduation?
So… what can schools do to help students stay on track?

22. Schools Need to… Acknowledge the impact of adolescence
Acknowledge the impact of poverty
Develop preventative and proactive strategies to mitigate their effects
…In addition to having quality school-wide instruction and strong embedded professional development for teachers
Schools need to be especially attuned to inhibiting factors that can come together in the 6th grade, which we all know can be an emotionally and physically volatile time for kids.

23. Combining Academic and Social Supports is Key
THE GOOD NEWS: Research-based programs and approaches exist for both academic and social supports, for three tiers of intervention
THE REAL DEAL: It will take reorganization of human effort, resources, and outlook to implement academic and social supports well and widely
The good news is, we know what works. But as we all know, the real deal is, it’s not that easy- we can’t just plug in a national program like Check and Connect and expect it to work in Philadelphia without some tweaking and customizing. There often needs to be redistribution of resources- which can occur during School Improvement Planning and which I’ll talk a little about later.

24. Designing a Comprehensive Intervention Plan
Conduct a Gap Analysis across Big Four risk factors
4X3 Cube
What supports are in place at our school/District/state?
Cross-reference School Improvement Plan
Fill in gaps
Create a graphics tool to guide the work
On-Demand Data tool
Create Prototype
Automate
The good news is, through our work this year in the North Region, we’ve developed a blueprint based on the research, kind of a roadmap that that schools can use to design their own intervention plans.

25. Creating the ‘Weave’ 4X3 Cube
We developed what we call the ‘weave’– here we have 3 tiers of interventions (whole school, targeted and intensive) across 4 risk factors.

26. 4 Risk Factors X 3 Levels of Intervention
For each of the Big Four, three tiers of intervention are needed:
Whole-school (75-80%)
Targeted (15-20%)
Intensive (5-10%)
There’s an extensive research base to show that a tiered response is needed in order to serve all students who need supports. First, a school-wide preventative measure (designed to keep 70-80% on track); for students for whom this is not enough, a more targeted intervention (to keep 10-20% on track); and finally intensive (typically 1:1 to 1:3).

27. 3-Tiered Interventions Needed: Attendance
This chart shows a sample of evidence-based tiered attendance programs and key components of each. It’s really hard to read- these are just examples of best practices. Each school would complete a matrix.

28. 3-Tiered Interventions Needed: Behavior
Likewise, for behavior. Again, key components and programs schools have in place for each level of intervention.

29. 3-Tiered Interventions Needed: Course Failure
And course failure. At a few schools, when we sat down to fill out the cube, we ran through an exercise that we called Truth or Dare. We found that in some schools, interventions may be listed in the School Improvement Plan, but those programs can be unknown to some staff or not in place. With focus on AYP, less attention is sometimes paid to whether interventions that already exist are actually working for kids. This is where the weave comes into play– all of this data can be plugged into the Gap Analysis tool and schools can see where there are holes in services.

30. Keeping Kids on Track to Graduation 4X3 Gap Analysis CURRENT RESOURCES IN PLACE
Here’s s very miniscule look at one school’s Cube.

31. Moving Between Tiers
Set decision rules for students moving level to level
Reserve most intense interventions for students for whom prior level does not work
Combats the natural tendency to push kids into ever-higher levels of support
Schools need to have clear rules on what triggers movement from one level of support to the next, and when students are ready to move forward to more intensive supports OR back to less intensive supports. What’s a reasonable cut point for a student who is moving from whole-school to targeted, and from targeted to intensive? Here is an example of what one school proposed for attendance cuts- this just says for whole school, the school would target all students, 3 absences would trigger targeted, and 10 absences for intensive.

32. Data-on-Demand
With input from teachers, principals, and District leadership, we developed a real-time, on-demand data tool
Helps teachers track students with the Big Four risk factors throughout the school year
Automate (as part of electronic Instructional Management System (Drop-Down menu)
In addition to the 4X3 Gap Analysis Cube, we wanted to develop a tool that allowed teachers and principals to track, in real time, which kids are most at-risk of dropping out. We came up with Data-On-Demand.

33. Data-on-Demand (cont.)
It’s hard to see- here we have every student in Teacher A’s classroom, across each of the Big Four risk factors (Attendance, Course Failure, and Behavior). At the suggestion of teachers, we added each student’s most recent PSSA score and change in reading level over time.

34. Getting Started YEAR 1 gap analysis (identify needed supports)
Building trust
Within District: District leadership
Within Region: Regional Superintendent(s)
Within School: Principal
gap analysis (identify needed supports)
“change the mindset” (reactive proactive)
Within grade: Teacher Team
co-design supports
On-the-ground
Staffing: getting there/being there
Budgeting
Here’s how it worked- during this 1st yr which we’re calling the Design Yr (which we’re still technically in), we worked at all levels-- District, Region, school and grade group. We found it too important to not be on-site on a consistent basis, so a staff member from the Ed Fund was at schools one day/week working with teachers and students. We also found it essential to build tiered supports into the budget so that from the beginning of the SY, there isn’t a question of funding. With the help of the two tools, this can happen during School Improvement Planning.

35. Conclusion
Significant numbers of sixth graders will be at-risk and identifiable
Without intervention, we can be fairly certain that these students will fall off track to graduation
Schools need to be organized and resourced to meet the needs of these young people
This all sounds pretty straight forward but few schools are organized along these lines (meaning few have integrated services at 3 levels). We believe that absent significant and sustained multi-tiered interventions, the formula is simple-- the problem will get worse and more and more students will walk the risky path to negative educational outcomes. The good news is, we know how to both identify AND help these students before it’s too late.

36. Contact Information
Ruth Curran Neild
Liza Herzog